Bellator 198 - Fedor vs Mir - Rosemont Illinois

[BluntTrauma21]

It’s lazy ass capping to call something 50/50. At least try to guess which side has 51%+ equity

 

[chemmy]

Then it's your capping that's off, not the betting philosophy.

Absolutely

 

[joenewbie]

Not if you are betting +110 juice on a fight that seems 50/50 and is actually 40/60

The whole dog or pass mentality is super dumb. Just because you cannot discern which side is more likely does not make it a true coinflip

You are right that none of these fights are a "true coinflip" because we are dealing with people that are unpredictable, especially with weight cutting and possible injury issues that we don't know about. Even the professional sports gamblers are sometimes wrong. A coin or a die is manufactured to give an exact outcome which makes predicting much easier.

But if you think that dog or pass mentality is dumb, are you advocating just betting on favorites?

 

[joenewbie]

In hindsight, I should have bet even more on u1.5. I was big on it, and made out well tonight, but as soon as I saw that line I knew it was just way, way off. Was one of the best lines I'd seen in a long time. I trumpeted it here for months. In the end I did make it one of my bigger plays of 2018, but it should have been my biggest. The juice was small and the chances of it going differently than what we saw were so much less than the odds implied.

Honestly, this is sort of one of the things I dislike about betting. I did well tonight, won a very big bet, and instead of being totally happy and satisfied I'm wondering why I didn't bet even more on it. Given it's a just a fun hobby for me, I don't think it's a good way of viewing it either, but I can't help it. It's not even the $ either, it's the fact that I made the perfect read but only trusted myself maybe 70% and bet 5u, instead of going all out and betting 8u (the most I'll really ever bet on one outcome).

Alright, end of stupid rant.

There is nothing at all stupid about that rant. It's something we all deal with which is one reason why I have never invited my friends to bet with me and rarely discuss it with them.
When we win we wish we had bet more and when we lose we wish we had bet less. It's the emotional trap of this hobby and takes a lot of maturity and self control to deal with it.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

You are right that none of these fights are a "true coinflip" because we are dealing with people that are unpredictable, especially with weight cutting and possible injury issues that we don't know about. Even the professional sports gamblers are sometimes wrong. A coin or a die is manufactured to give an exact outcome which makes predicting much easier.

But if you think that dog or pass mentality is dumb, are you advocating just betting on favorites?

I am advocating only betting on fighters that you actually believe will win.

I am only betting a dog if I can envision them coming out and looking like the favorite.

 

[DevilsPt2]

I am advocating only betting on fighters that you actually believe will win.

I am only betting a dog if I can envision them coming out and looking like the favorite.

Thats how I play it as well. I'd rather go for less variance than thin value. I like to actually win my bets I guess you could say.

 

[joenewbie]

I am advocating only betting on fighters that you actually believe will win.

I am only betting a dog if I can envision them coming out and looking like the favorite.

Makes perfect sense now. I was thinking more of the math factor when I made my post about long term betting on "coinflip" fights. But you are right to bet only on fighters you actually think are going to win.

 

[mkess101]

But everything is odds dependent right?

If I think a guy should be a 60/40 dog (so I don't necessarily think he'll win, but I think he has a very realistic chance of pulling the upset) and he's +350 why the hell would I not bet him?

 

[joenewbie]

But everything is odds dependent right?

If I think a guy should be a 60/40 dog (so I don't necessarily think he'll win, but I think he has a very realistic chance of pulling the upset) and he's +350 why the hell would I not bet him?

Yes I understand that argument too. That's why most of us won't play a -600 favorite even though we are very confident that they will win. I was amazed when Cyborg's line for her March fight went from -900 to -2000. That's crazy but she did win in the first round so somebody was willing to bet their entire paycheck to win $100 and it worked out for them. But damn the sky will be falling if/when she loses after a bet like that.

 

[DevilsPt2]

But everything is odds dependent right?

If I think a guy should be a 60/40 dog (so I don't necessarily think he'll win, but I think he has a very realistic chance of pulling the upset) and he's +350 why the hell would I not bet him?

I would call that wide value and bet that guy as well if I thought he was rly 60-40 and I got him at +350. I also agree with that guys point about lazy capping, when people cant cap a fight easily they'll lazily just call it 50/50 and play accordingly. Then if it doesnt look 50/50 in the fight people still wont blame themselves too often so the cycle continues.

 

[mkess101]

I would call that wide value and bet that guy as well if I thought he was rly 60-40 and I got him at +350. I also agree with that guys point about lazy capping, when people cant cap a fight easily they'll lazily just call it 50/50 and play accordingly. Then if it doesnt look 50/50 in the fight people still wont blame themselves too often so the cycle continues.

Yeah for sure. I think there's truth to that. It's still a capping issue and not a philosophy issue though.

 

[Gugabe]

Not if you are betting +110 juice on a fight that seems 50/50 and is actually 40/60

The whole dog or pass mentality is super dumb. Just because you cannot discern which side is more likely does not make it a true coinflip

Dogs between like +110 and +170 are about 10% ROI if you'd taken them all for the last 5 years IIRC. Vast majority of my ROI comes from dudes in that corridor. I'm currently sitting at the top of the averaged leaderboards for ROI and units on the biggest independently-tracked site we've got, so I know my shit in that respect. There are a lot of ultra-volatile UFC fights, and I believe that some dudes actually overanalyse and overwatch tape to try and derive signal from a very small sample size.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Dogs between like +110 and +170 are about 10% ROI if you'd taken them all for the last 5 years IIRC. Vast majority of my ROI comes from dudes in that corridor. I'm currently sitting at the top of the averaged leaderboards for ROI and units on the biggest independently-tracked site we've got, so I know my shit in that respect. There are a lot of ultra-volatile UFC fights, and I believe that some dudes actually overanalyse and overwatch tape to try and derive signal from a very small sample size.

That’s interesting. I guess the lesson is it is extremely difficult to discern who is more likely to win any closely matched fight.

I’m guessing that faves tend to be more profitable when it’s lopsided enough to be -300 or more, and the +180 to +250 or so region is a neutralish in between zone?

 

[Oblivian]

I think each bettor has their strengths. Some may be good at betting underdogs where others aren't. Some are good at being picky and only betting a fight or two per event while others do better with multiple bets.