- Joined
- Jul 9, 2013
- Messages
- 17,757
- Reaction score
- 4,362
For the record, Cruz himself has no excuses:
MIght've won had he shaved his beard.
Clean shaved Cruz > Bearded Cruz
For the record, Cruz himself has no excuses:
MIght've won had he shaved his beard.
Clean shaved Cruz > Bearded Cruz
GSP got caught early, Cruz got embarrassed for 5 rounds. There was nothing wrong with him in the fight. He just got beat. It doesn't mean he's a bad fighter, but I'm fully confident a rematch would look more like Dillashaw Barao 2 than GSP Serra 2.
By the same token Aldo also got caught v. McGregor, barely 10 seconds out at that, but tbqhwy im not so sure a rematch at this point would go his way either.
If it were any other fighter i might agree with you, but Cruz is one of the best analysts in the game, and if theres one thing he's known for besides doing the hokey pokey, its gameplanning. I simply can't see him going into a rematch with the same look as before. Unless the fighter just simply isn't good.
That perception filter is really what it comes down too; im a fan of Cruz so of course it is easy for me to see the former sentiment. I know you've downrated Cruz in the past so its easier perhaps for you to hold the latter sentiment, but imo if one has a model that starts with 'assume a champion level fighter isn't good', it may need a reassessment.
It's not that there's never any excuses, its that you say there's no excuses so you'll be able to deal with the excuses.
Before his rematch with Nate after the first fight, which, too, ended in embarrassing fashion, i had said that McGregor had the tools and the smarts to build a gameplan with which to outpoint Nate and take a decision, which is exactly what happened.
I see this as basically a 'Diaz moment' for Dom, that's the 'box' im putting this script in the movie in.
He was beaten soundly for 25 minutes.
I know; that's why im saying, if it was any other fighter, id agree with you.
If you were asked to pick any guy in the UFC who could retool themselves to such an extent over the course of a year or so for a rematch, who would you pick? Me, i think If there's anyone who could do that, its dom.
I'd pick Jones personally
Cody's defensive footwork was phenomenal. "just back steps and the occasional pivot" doesn't do it justice. That was some of the most effective use of those things I've ever seen in mma, both to defend the strikes and the takedowns. He badly outpositioned Cruz with superior footwork. He didn't just beat Cruz, he styled on him and nearly finished him.
That said, TJ is way better on the front foot. I think Cody will come forward more against him, and hopefully work the body and legs. If he does I'm picking him.
What makes it phenomenal? I realise that I'm likely underselling it, but it didn't seem like he put on a technical masterclass by any measure. I mean, fair enough if I'm wrong, but I don't see what made it phenomenal when compared to someone like Jose Aldo or Dillashaw for example?
Cody let Cruz lead the dance the whole way and didn't bite on the urge to chase Dominic like everybody else has. Sat and waited for Cruz to enter the pocket on his terms where he knew he was miles better.
The brilliance is in the subtlety. He didn't do a lot of flashy movements or big steps. He simple maintained distance and set traps. It was the most basic footwork techniques demonstrated at an incredibly high level. Cruz couldn't get in position to do anything.
It remined me a lot of Aldo - Edgar 2. Aldo doesn't do anything flashy in that fight, but he's never out of position and he never over reacts to Edgar's movement, and as such he's set to counter whenever Frankie came in. The brilliance of it is in the discipline and ability to take really, really small angles without ever losing the ability to counter with power.
I know; that's why im saying, if it was any other fighter, id agree with you.
If you were asked to pick any guy in the UFC who could retool themselves to such an extent over the course of a year or so for a rematch, who would you pick? Me, i think If there's anyone who could do that, its dom.
This then becomes a question of a)what tools does Cruz need to beat Cody? and b)does he have those tools, or can he learn & apply them at a high enough level to be effective?
If we go back to Conor vs. Diaz as an example, we can say that better energy management and chopping the legs to take away some of Nate's power & movement could radically change the fight. We know that Nate's vulnerable to low kicks and that learning effective low kicks is comparatively easy, from this and other things we can say that Conor can make the needed adjustments to make the rematch very different. And he did.
Applying the thought process to Cruz & Cody gets tricky, the problem being that Cody is still a largely unknown quantity. A lot of the footwork, head movement, and overall poise which he showed against Cruz was absent in all of his earlier fights, we know what Cody can do now, we don't know if he's shown all his cards or he's still hiding some under the table. Cruz could draw up a plan to beat the Cody we know now and it might work, or it might get exploded if Cody pulls out those hidden cards. Nate is a mostly static fighter who's been the same for years, his strengths & weaknesses are well known and haven't changed. I don't think we can assume the same of Cody, he's either learning very fast or sandbagging a bit, possibly both. You run into the same problem as fighting GSP when he was king of his division, everyone planned to fight the current GSP, but their plans went out the window since GSP was always improving, evolving, and adding new tools to his game.
As for possible ways to beat Cody, I think it begins at chopping out his legs. Cody doesn't really check low kicks, he prefers to absorb them and counter with hard punches while his opponent is on one leg. Take out his legs and the footwork and power that he depends on starts going away. Also, body kicks, much easier to land than strikes to his head and it forces him to either block the kicks with his arms which prevents him from countering with punches or take the kicks on his body to land the counter and get his gas tank drained and movement slowed. Is that something Cruz can do? I'm not sure. He'd have to change his style rather drastically to deliver the hard kicks to the legs & body that are required, he'd have to throw kicks from a solid stance instead of his fluid & often off balance stances and adjust everything else in his system to account for that. He'd be a lot closer to a Muay Thai fighter like Samkor who blasts his opponents with power kicks than the Cruz we know & love.