‘Climate Change’ Is No More Credible than Magic Says Top Physicist

dont know. does that mean we should throw our hands up and keep polluting like mad?

lets have some tax cuts for green companies. should be an EASY start. republicans wont suggest such a pro business idea, though. there is a reason why.
You are moving the goal posts from the relationship of burning fossil fuels with global temperature and with sea level to pollution in general. You did a lot of fear mongering in post #217 about plants and animals not adapting and about sea level, and now you do not want to back up your assertions.
 
You are moving the goal posts from the relationship of burning fossil fuels with global temperature and with sea level to pollution in general. You did a lot of fear mongering in post #217 about plants and animals not adapting and about sea level, and now you do not want to back up your assertions.

ah. i actually didnt know what you were talking about.

its because al gore says so. thats all you need to know. and leo.
 
ah. i actually didnt know what you were talking about.

its because al gore says so. thats all you need to know. and leo.
As I've state in post #219, your post #217 is speculative nonsense.

Even though he was wrong, Al Gore had the sense to put an ecologically sensitive apex predator, the polar bear, in his global warming death pool.

You have apples in yours.
 
As I've state in post #219, your post #217 is speculative nonsense.

Even though he was wrong, Al Gore had the sense to put an ecologically sensitive apex predator, the polar bear, in his global warming death pool.

You have apples in yours.

lol,

i was claiming that this is the danger of climate change, that the earth may heat too quickly for many species to adapt. this was in response to a poster who seemed to believe that climate change fears are related to people combusting or burning to death.
 
lol,

i was claiming that this is the danger of climate change, that the earth may heat too quickly for many species to adapt. this was in response to a poster who seemed to believe that climate change fears are related to people combusting or burning to death.
You learned from so many of Al Gore's predictions being wrong to make your nonsensical speculative fear mongering as vague as possible.

Real scientific conclusions make testable predictions. Google "falsifiable".
 
You learned from so many of Al Gore's predictions being wrong to make your nonsensical speculative fear mongering as vague as possible.

Real scientific conclusions make testable predictions. Google "falsifiable".

i was kidding about the al gore thing. hes not a scientist.

global warming research is falsifiable, replicable, and all that jazz, but the plausible conclusions people take from that data arent always. the poster that i was responding to seemed to think that people who are fearful of climate change are worried about it being too hot for them to live (lol). i explained that this is not what people are worried about.
 
i was kidding about the al gore thing. hes not a scientist.

global warming research is falsifiable, replicable, and all that jazz, but the plausible conclusions people take from that data arent always. the poster that i was responding to seemed to think that people who are fearful of climate change are worried about it being too hot for them to live (lol). i explained that this is not what people are worried about.
Global warming research has been falsified. Tree ring data correlates with the ice core data from which the thousands of years of real climate record is constructed. You get global warming only by adjusting individual surface temperature readings, but the adjusted data does not correlate with the tree ring data, so global warming is falsified by the "divergence problem".

In terms of replicability, there is no unadjusted dataset I can use to show global warming. I would have to "adjust". Satellite data does not correlate with ground surface data, so both datasets end up being adjusted.

If you think that I have not just falsified global warming by the "divergence problem" then tell me what would it take for you to agree that global warming is falsified?

If you think that global warming is replicable then tell me how would I go about replicating the finding of global warming today?

If you cannot answer then can you admit to not being any more of a scientist than Al Gore and all that jazz?
 
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I hope you don't mind my interjection into your conversation with waiguoren, but if you use tree ring data, which has been correlated with ice core data and can be measured yearly, then you have no warming in the last 100 years. Google the "tree ring divergence problem". So waiguoren is correct that you have no basis for comparison for the claimed increase over 100 years being rapid because, when you compare apples to apples, there is no increase.

I question whether the increase has happened at all. As I've already stated the increase is not to be found in the tree ring data. The claimed approximately 1C increase in 100 years is from surface temperature measurement in which individual measurement station data have been adjusted. Furthermore, minus adjustments, the surface measurements do not correlate with the satellite measurements. Furthermore, to get a claimed 1C in 100 years, there is a claimed error of only 0.1C in measurement of global temperature. It is claimed that the error rate in measuring global temperature has been the same 0.1C today and 100 years ago, as if there have been no changes in the accuracy of temperature measurement.

When looking at Milankovitch cycles, derived from real climate science that look over a time span of thousands of years, there is nothing outrageous about today's temperature. Your hysteria comes from pretending to see climate trends in decades of data that have been adjusted.

I'm not sure which studies you are citing here, but tree rings are a terrible way to assess climate change since not only they only form during growing seasons, thus having a very limited record, but also they are affected by a multitude of factors such as soil, wind, rainfall.
As far as Milankovich cycles... I have no idea why you people keep mentioning it, it has 100,000 year periodicity.. its completely irrelevant to the discussion.

Give me some evidence of the data being "adjusted", cause I call bullshit on that (and don't give me no blog article, published paper only)
 
I'm not sure which studies you are citing here, but tree rings are a terrible way to assess climate change since not only they only form during growing seasons, thus having a very limited record, but also they are affected by a multitude of factors such as soil, wind, rainfall.
As far as Milankovich cycles... I have no idea why you people keep mentioning it, it has 100,000 year periodicity.. its completely irrelevant to the discussion.

Give me some evidence of the data being "adjusted", cause I call bullshit on that (and don't give me no blog article, published paper only)
I don't think you actually understand how tree ring data is used. The idea is to use old trees. The years can be mapped out because the ring pattern changes from summer to winter and the width of a ring is a proxy for temperature (more width, more growth, higher temperature). A 200 year old tree provides 200 years of data. The data can be correlated with another 200 year old tree that fell 150 years ago to provide 350 years of data. You will have to explain to me the relevance of trees forming during the growing season to obtaining a 200 year temperature record from a single tree because my only explanation is that you do not understand how tree ring data is collected. The oldest tree ring data goes back around a few thousand years, which allows for correlation with longer span ice core data. If you are claiming that the tree ring data is no good then how can the ice core data correlated with it be any good? Ice cores provided the proxy temperature data by which Milankovitch cycles were proposed. Are you questioning the existence of Milankovitch cycles? If you now accept tree ring data then there is a problem that tree ring data correlates with ice core data but not adjusted surface temperature data (the adjusted data that purports to show 1C warming in 100 years), tree ring data not showing the purported increase.

I keep mentioning Milankovich cycles because of its long duration. When you look at global temperature on a scale of thousands of years, you see that all of human civilization has existed in a narrow interglacial warming period that extends before the industrial revolution and these narrow warm periods have occurred cyclically even predating man's existence. Today's temperature is not outside of the temperatures seen repeatedly over a time span of hundreds of thousands of years.

Here is the evidence of the data being adjusted. From: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
"GISS homogenization (urban adjustment)
One of the improvements — introduced in 1998 — was the implementation of a method to address the problem of urban warming: The urban and peri-urban (i.e., other than rural) stations are adjusted so that their long-term trend matches that of the mean of neighboring rural stations. Urban stations without nearby rural stations are dropped. This preserves local short-term variability without affecting long term trends. Originally, the classification of stations was based on population size near that station; the current analysis uses satellite-observed night lights to determine which stations are located in urban and peri-urban areas.
We maintain a running record of any modifications made to the analysis, available on our Updates to Analysis page.
Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using the current adjusted GHCN and SCAR files. The new files incorporate reports for the previous month as well as late reports and corrections for earlier months."
I am not aware of any unadjusted dataset that shows the claimed 1C increase in 100 years, and the data cannot be correlated with another dataset, such as tree ring data, but tree ring data can be correlated with ice core data. I challenge you to provide a surface temperature dataset that shows the 1C increase in 100 years and that has no adjustments to individual temperature readings.

Plus you have not addressed my point about error bars. The claim of a 1C increase in 100 years is made using an error bar of 0.1C, the same 0.1C today and 100 years ago. Does it seem reasonable to claim to know the global temperature within a tenth of a degree when you can't even get one dataset to correlate with another? Does it seem reasonable to you that the error in global temperature measurement is claimed to be the same today as it was 100 years ago?
 
I don't think you actually understand how tree ring data is used. The idea is to use old trees. The years can be mapped out because the ring pattern changes from summer to winter and the width of a ring is a proxy for temperature (more width, more growth, higher temperature). A 200 year old tree provides 200 years of data. The data can be correlated with another 200 year old tree that fell 150 years ago to provide 350 years of data. You will have to explain to me the relevance of trees forming during the growing season to obtaining a 200 year temperature record from a single tree because my only explanation is that you do not understand how tree ring data is collected. The oldest tree ring data goes back around a few thousand years, which allows for correlation with longer span ice core data. If you are claiming that the tree ring data is no good then how can the ice core data correlated with it be any good? Ice cores provided the proxy temperature data by which Milankovitch cycles were proposed. Are you questioning the existence of Milankovitch cycles? If you now accept tree ring data then there is a problem that tree ring data correlates with ice core data but not adjusted surface temperature data (the adjusted data that purports to show 1C warming in 100 years), tree ring data not showing the purported increase.

I keep mentioning Milankovich cycles because of its long duration. When you look at global temperature on a scale of thousands of years, you see that all of human civilization has existed in a narrow interglacial warming period that extends before the industrial revolution and these narrow warm periods have occurred cyclically even predating man's existence. Today's temperature is not outside of the temperatures seen repeatedly over a time span of hundreds of thousands of years.

Here is the evidence of the data being adjusted. From: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
"GISS homogenization (urban adjustment)
One of the improvements — introduced in 1998 — was the implementation of a method to address the problem of urban warming: The urban and peri-urban (i.e., other than rural) stations are adjusted so that their long-term trend matches that of the mean of neighboring rural stations. Urban stations without nearby rural stations are dropped. This preserves local short-term variability without affecting long term trends. Originally, the classification of stations was based on population size near that station; the current analysis uses satellite-observed night lights to determine which stations are located in urban and peri-urban areas.
We maintain a running record of any modifications made to the analysis, available on our Updates to Analysis page.
Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using the current adjusted GHCN and SCAR files. The new files incorporate reports for the previous month as well as late reports and corrections for earlier months."
I am not aware of any unadjusted dataset that shows the claimed 1C increase in 100 years, and the data cannot be correlated with another dataset, such as tree ring data, but tree ring data can be correlated with ice core data. I challenge you to provide a surface temperature dataset that shows the 1C increase in 100 years and that has no adjustments to individual temperature readings.

Plus you have not addressed my point about error bars. The claim of a 1C increase in 100 years is made using an error bar of 0.1C, the same 0.1C today and 100 years ago. Does it seem reasonable to claim to know the global temperature within a tenth of a degree when you can't even get one dataset to correlate with another? Does it seem reasonable to you that the error in global temperature measurement is claimed to be the same today as it was 100 years ago?

Like I said, tree rings are a bad proxy data for temperature records, there are too many factors affecting their growth outside of temperature. Tree ring data is shit, plain and simple.. No one uses it as proxy because its incredibly inaccurate
When did I say I'm questioning the existence of Milankovich cycles? Not once did I mention it, I'm saying that the Milankovich cycles have little to do with the rapid rise in temperature we see today.

The adjustments they are talking about are not what you are implying, they are adjusting for accuracy, not to "alter the data for some global illuminati consipracy"
Fig.A.gif


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Stop using this "durr data is adjusted" bullshit, it means you have no clue how data is recorded. For every single measurement, say isotope measurement, there is a certain number of corrections you have to do: blank corrections, 2 point corrections, linearity corrections etc... its how you get accurate representation of data, accounting for instrument drift, outliers etc. Same applies here, they are adjusting for accuracy..

Anyway, I've wasted enough of my time on this thread trying to convince people who have no interest in facts but to promote their political agenda. Go debunk a near direct correlation between CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the rate of warming

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Haven't posted in months. Signed in just to like this. What a thorough and on-point rebuttal to this contrarian "the exception is the rule" moronic bullshit.


Its like that one scientist who denies evolution, he must be right because the government and illuminati are making money on evolution or some shit
 
Like I said, tree rings are a bad proxy data for temperature records, there are too many factors affecting their growth outside of temperature. Tree ring data is shit, plain and simple.. No one uses it as proxy because its incredibly inaccurate
When did I say I'm questioning the existence of Milankovich cycles? Not once did I mention it, I'm saying that the Milankovich cycles have little to do with the rapid rise in temperature we see today.

The adjustments they are talking about are not what you are implying, they are adjusting for accuracy, not to "alter the data for some global illuminati consipracy"
Fig.A.gif


Fig.E.gif

You have not addressed my questions. You have merely repeated yourself about tree rings without showing understanding. If the tree ring data are inaccurate then why do they correlate with ice core data? If tree ring data are "shit" then shouldn't the correlated ice core data also be considered "shit"? And if ice core data are "shit" then doesn't this bring the existence of Milankovich cycles (constructed form ice core data) into question?

You now admit that individual surface temperature measurements are adjusted. Can you show warming with a non-adjusted data set? Can you show correlation between surface temperature measurement and another temperature measurement (in the way that tree ring data correlates with ice core data)?

You continue not to address the 0.1C error bar question.
 
You have not addressed my questions. You have merely repeated yourself about tree rings without showing understanding. If the tree ring data are inaccurate then why do they correlate with ice core data? If tree ring data are "shit" then shouldn't the correlated ice core data also be considered "shit"? And if ice core data are "shit" then doesn't this bring the existence of Milankovich cycles (constructed form ice core data) into question?

You now admit that individual surface temperature measurements are adjusted. Can you show warming with a non-adjusted data set? Can you show correlation between surface temperature measurement and another temperature measurement (in the way that tree ring data correlates with ice core data)?

You continue not to address the 0.1C error bar question.


What do you mean correlated? Correlated by what? Age? This doesn't mean anything. Show me some of this tree ring data.

The 0.1 C error bar is a dumb question.. you think, because they use the same margin of error based on mathematical calculations that somehow proves their data is wrong??? Are you serious?

Want correlations? Here you go
GlobalWarmingProjections.png


Ocean_Hockey_Stick1.gif


Temp-sunspot-co2.svg


You are yet to give me any actual data.. Show me the papers.. the tree ring papers, the 0.1 C papers.. or at least graphs from those papers.. something other than word of mouth

Edit: have you ever seen a graph of the Milankovich cycle? Have you seen just how much variation there is on 100 year scale compared to 100,000 year cycle? To say that the tree rings correlate with hundreds of thousand of years of milankovich cyclicity, but don't show any warming in the last hundred years is so fucking stupid.
 
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Also... I just realized, are you actually trying to argue that the warming ISN'T happening???
If that is the case, we are done here

You can waste someone else's time, you won't waste any more of mine

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What do you mean correlated? Correlated by what? Age? This doesn't mean anything. Show me some of this tree ring data.

The 0.1 C error bar is a dumb question.. you think, because they use the same margin of error based on mathematical calculations that somehow proves their data is wrong??? Are you serious?

Want correlations? Here you go
GlobalWarmingProjections.png


Ocean_Hockey_Stick1.gif


Temp-sunspot-co2.svg


You are yet to give me any actual data.. Show me the papers.. the tree ring papers, the 0.1 C papers.. or at least graphs from those papers.. something other than word of mouth
What do I mean by correlation? I think we should go back to my previous explanation of tree ring data in post #229:
"The years can be mapped out because the ring pattern changes from summer to winter and the width of a ring is a proxy for temperature (more width, more growth, higher temperature). A 200 year old tree provides 200 years of data. The data can be correlated with another 200 year old tree that fell 150 years ago to provide 350 years of data."
The living tree and the dead tree correlate for the 50 years that both trees were alive. Similarly, to correlate ice cores with tree rings, we take an event that is clearly demonstrated in both the cores and the rings (such as an exceptional volcanic eruption like Mount Vesuvius; www.clim-past.net/11/105/2015/cp-11-105-2015.pdf - that is a paper by the way) and see if the cores and rings line up going backward and forward from this event.

In answer to my request for two measurement data-sets that correlate, you have provided "data" extending to the year 2100. Are these measurements being provided by time travelers? I think you are mistaking predictions for measurements. To clarify, can you show me a similar correlation (to the correlation between tree rings and ice cores) between, for example surface measurement and satellite measurement, in which none of the individual measurements have been adjusted?

You've asked me to show you some error bars. Here is global temperature data from NASA with error bars, colored blue in 2001 and green in 2015. NASA has altered its data from showing 0.6C warming from 1880 to 1999 in 2001 to showing 1.2C of warming during the same interval in 2015:

GISS2001_2015.gif


Here is a graph of the difference between the 2001 and 2015 data:
2015-11-09-03-11-39.png


In the year 2000 the difference is almost 0.2C even though the claimed error bar, for the year 2000, is only 0.1C.

Realistically, I don't think you can even claim to accurately give a temperature for the entire planet with even 1C accuracy, which renders the claimed approximately 1C increase over 100 years within the margin of error of measurement, in other words no significant warming.
 
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Also... I just realized, are you actually trying to argue that the warming ISN'T happening???
If that is the case, we are done here

You can waste someone else's time, you won't waste any more of mine

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Don't be scared homie.
 
"real climate science" is a pseudoscience conspiracy bullshit site.. thanks for playing+
 
"real climate science" is a pseudoscience conspiracy bullshit site.. thanks for playing+
Your ad hominem is logical fallacy, not science.

Are you disputing that NASA has made changes to its analysis?
 
Your ad hominem is logical fallacy, not science.

Are you disputing that NASA has made changes to its analysis?

Nope, we are done.

I asked for a real published scientific journal, you gave me crap from a known pseudoscience right wing conspiracy BLOG site..
There is nothing left to discuss, I know who I'm dealing with now and I wont waste any more of my time on you
 
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