Your Official UFN 92 Bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 31, 2016.

  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  2. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    1.3u leites-camozzi O2.5 -130
     
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  3. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    2u camozzi +165. (Playing the movement as much as anything)
     
  4. JimGunn

    JimGunn Gold Belt

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    I'm also on the Camozzi bandwagon at this price:
    Chris Camozzi (+165) vs Thales Leites $200.00 for $330.00

    Parlay on these overs:
    Dominique Steele/Court McGee Over 2½ (-180) + Thales Leites/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-190) $100.00 for $137.43
     
  5. Agent Mulder

    Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Dog hunting big time on this card. Will probably add more on Kawajiri.

    4u Rodriguez/Caceres O1.5 -166
    2u Tybura +100
    2u Camozzi +170
    2u Camozzi/Leites O2.5 -175
    2u Cummings +150
    1.5u Caceres +220
    1u Steele +175
    1u Moroz/Taylor O2.5 -110
    1u Kawajiri +275
    0.5u Kawajiri +295

    1u Team X (CSGO) + Bermudez + Ishihara +177

    0.25u Caceres dec +900
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2016
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  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    2.5u camozzi +163
    1.3u camozzi-leites O2.5 -130

    2.6u mcgee-steele O2.5 -130

    2u novelli +100

    0.25u yair SUB +420

    2.25u ponz -150
    0.73u ponz-cummings O2.5 -145

    0.33u ponz ML + camozziO2.5 like +130
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2016
  7. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Cub + Bermudez 5.5 units @ -118

    Bermudez unan dec 0.25 units @ +270

    Bermudez r3 0.13 units @ +1400

    Yair sub 0.11 units @ +550

    Yair sub 0.13 units @ +450
     
  8. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Location:
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    Singles
    Leites: $10 to win $5.96 $15.96
    Caceres/Rodriguez ITD: $10 to win $4.35 Loss

    Steele/McGee over 2.5: $7.50 to win $6.82 $14.32
    Gigliotti: $7.50 to win $5.36 Loss

    Ponz: $6.25 to win $4.17 $10.42
    Kawijiri/Cub under 2.5: $5 to win $6.50 Loss

    Teymur: $5 to win $4.76 $9.76
    Bermudez/Jason ITD: $5 to win $3.33 Loss

    Whitney/Dos Santos ITD: $2.50 to win $2.27 $4.77
    Linderman/Mehmen under 1.5: $1.25 to win $1.62 Loss


    Risk of $60 $55.23

    Parlays
    Ishihara + Moroz: $3.75 to win $3.88 $7.63
    Green + Field over Bubba (Travelers) + Sherman/Ledet ITD: $3.75 to win $3.19 Loss

    JZ + Velasquez: $2.50 to win $5.16 Loss
    Tybura/Ledet starts 2 + Caceres/Rod starts 2: $2.50 to win $2.31 $4.81

    Risk of $12.50 $12.44

    TOTAL RISK OF $72.50 $67.67

    TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $165, Running total is $226.38 Running Profit = $61.38 (Approximate ROI for year 3..31%)
    TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2016: $29 into $2775.67 Total Profit = $2756.67 (Approximate ROI: 12.0188%)
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
  9. SubonlyKO's

    SubonlyKO's Black Belt in Guns

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    Parlays
    Yair Rodriguez (-270)
    Danielle Taylor (+205)
    Risking $5 pays $15.90

    Caceres/Rodriguez goes distance (+200)
    Taylor/Moroz goes distance (+110)
    Risking $7 pays $37.10

    Caceres/Rodriguez goes distance (+200)
    Taylor/Moroz doesnt go distance (-140)
    Risking $7 pays $29.00

    Singles
    Rodriguez wins by decision (+310) risking $9 pays $27.90

    Caceres/Rodriguez draw (+9000)
    Risking $0.95 pays $85.50

    Totals excluding draw bet:
    risking $28
    Best possible payout $80.90
     
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  10. mkess101

    mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Did you change your mind on Taylor/Moros going to the cards? If not you'd have been better off just betting the $14 straight on Caceras/Rodgriguez going the distance at +200.
     
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  11. SubonlyKO's

    SubonlyKO's Black Belt in Guns

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    No i guess i was just being a young and dumb bettor! Still learning the ropes, thanks for the critique :)
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    No worries! Not that you asked for it, but here's the math:

    Had you bet it straight and you win you profit $28 ($14 at +200)

    The way you bet it:

    Your parlay with Taylor/Moros going the distance hits you profit $30.10 (Win $37.10 and lose $7) So obviously you win $2.10 more than had you just bet Caceras/Rodriguez goes distance.

    Your parlay with Taylor/Moros NOT going the distance hits, you profit $22 ($29 win minus $7). So $6 less than had you bet it straight.

    So it's definitely not a huge deal and maybe you catch your better parlay on this one. But long term lots of bets like this will eat at your BR. You will start to look at everything this way to maximize your profit as you go along. Don't feel dumb, way back when I did stuff exactly like this. And I consider myself to be pretty smart and way above average with math!
     
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  13. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    UFN 92 Risk: 1,452.55
    rodriguez SUB: 25 for 105 / caceres
    jason DEC: 20 for 157 / bermudez
    camozzi +163: 250 for 408.50 / O2.5: 130 for 100 - 61 parlays / leites
    ponz -148: 295 for 200 - 33 parlay / O2.5: 72.50 for 50 - 28 parlays / cummings
    smith +3.5: 52.50 for 50 / gigliotti
    taylor DEC: 20 for 146 / O2.5: 28 parlays / moroz
    mcgee-steele O2.5: 260 for 200 - 28 parlays
    tybura-pesta O1.5: 28 parlays
    novelli +100: 200 for 200 / novelli: 20 for 158 / O2.5: 28 parlays / teymur
    gutierrez RD1: 5.55 for 49.95 / ishihara
    swanson RD3: 20 for 185 / kawajiri
    sherman-ledet O1.5: 28 parlays
    props
    parlays
    33 for 45.45: camozzi-leites O2.5 -195 & ponz -175
    49 RR for 317.40: CamLeitesO2.5/ PonzCumO2.5/ MorTayO2.5/ McGeeSteeleO2.5/ TybPestaO1.5/ NovTeyO2.5/ SherLed O1.5
    ---

    will update again after weigh-in. again, don't intend to let camozzi ML risk stay 2.5u.
     
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  14. mkess101

    mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Just one bet:

    upload_2016-8-4_21-8-13.png

    (Okay kidding will post hopefully before Sat. I've slacked badly on doing it lately. ^^^We did have one card where all dogs won last year I think? Lighting strike twice LOL?)
     
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  15. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    Nate Diaz @ 11/10
    Zak Cummings @ 11/8
    Donald Cerrone @ 4/7
    Carlos Condit @ 4/5
    Alex Caceres @ 5/2
    Dennis Bermudez @ 10/21
    Alistair Overeem @ 11/10
    Andrei Arlovski @ 7/5
    8 Folds, 1 bet * £5.00
     
  16. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Not a super big card for me...But I do feel confident in the favorites which has been a shorttrack to disaster in 2016..
    . Skärmklipp.JPG
     
  17. Discjockeyshtud

    Discjockeyshtud Green Belt

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    Hail mary shits and giggles parlays for this one

    $20 for $54 on Cub+Court+Ishihara

    $20 for $150 on Bermudez+Leites+Caceres

    Aus bookies are rubbish need to get a foreign travel visa card to get on some of those US props and lines

    Good luck everyone, love your work and this community
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2016
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  18. Lightsout671

    Lightsout671 White Belt

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    Cub-Ishihara-Gigliotti-Yair-Conor TKO
    Ishira tko-Dennis-Yair tko-Nate
    Cub-Dennis-Yair decision-Nate
     
  19. Hodge23

    Hodge23 White Belt

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    SU
    3U Santiago Ponzinibbio @ -125

    Parlays
    4U Swanson & Ishihara @ -110

    Props
    1U Dennis Bermudez UD @ +270
    2U Yair Rodriguez ITD @ -115

    Monthly Total: 0U
    Yearly Total: +17U

    Keeping it simple tonight with just 4 bets, but i am going to be looking for in play opportunities.
    I seem to do quite well with in play bets but never pull the trigger with bigger stakes, usually just 1U here or there.
     
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  20. chemmy

    chemmy Green Belt

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    1u Ponzi -118
    1u Camozzi +165
    0.5u Camozzi/Leites over 2.5
    1u Sherman +120
    0.5u Trevor Smith +115
    0.5u Dominique Steele +175
    0.5u Novelli +145

    I feel like I might be riding the recent underdog wave a little hard this event, which isn't usually my style, but it just turns out that there aren't many favorites that I feel are priced well.
     
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