Your Official UFN 124 Bets

Total risk: 21.3877u

Final pre-event bets:


1u Stephens ML +160
1.5u Stephens (SC=NA) +168
0.35u Choi R1 +400
0.3u Choi-Stephens GTD +230
0.25u Choi R2 +650
0.25u Stephens DEC +633
0.1u Stephens split/maj. DEC +1708
0.1u Stephens R5 +3300
0.1u Stephens KO/TKO/DQ R4 +4000
0.1u Stephens KO/TKO/DQ R5 +6600
0.05u Stephens R4 +2125
0.05u Stephens R4 +2300

0.5u Clark ML +100
0.25u Clark (SC=NA) +210
0.25u Clark -3.5 +185
0.1u Clark ITD +774
0.05u VanZant SUB. +1065
0.05u Clark SUB. +1450

0.1u Usman R3 +1000
0.05u Meek R1 +1600

0.5u Johnson -3.5 +125
0.5u Elkins-Johnson ends ITD +140
0.3u Elkins-Johnson U2.5 +170
0.15u Johnson R1 +500
0.1u Elkins R3 +2500

1u Krause -3.5 +135
0.2u Krause-White U2.5 +140
0.2u Krause ITD +293
0.13u Krause SUB. +480
0.1u Krause-White won't start R2 +338

0.45u Frevola SUB. +900
0.1u Reyes DEC. +650

1.2u Aldana ML -130
0.75u Aldana -3.5 +128
0.15u Bernardo SUB. +1030
0.06u Aldana SUB. +1050
0.04u Aldana R3 +1400

0.2u Kang KO/TKO +525

3u Eye ML +103
1.04u Eye (SC=NA) -111
1u Eye -3.5 +175
0.1u Eye ITD +408
0.1u Eye SUB. +865
0.1u Eye R3 +800

1u Taylor ML +115

0.05u Burnell KO/TKO +1250

0.4u Parlay (Johnson -157, Krause -146, Clark -133) +383

RR 11x0.1u (Eye +100, Clark -125, Belfort-Hall O1.5 +140, Stephens +140)

RR 57x0.0161u (Stephens SC=NA +160, Clark SC=NA +195, Elkins-Johnson ends ITD +130, Krause -3.5 +170, Aldana -3.5 +155, Eye -3.5 +175)

RR 26x0.01u (Eye ITD +350, Santiago ITD +160, Krause ITD +250, Kang ITD +137, Johnson ITD +210)

0.01u Fights to go distance U1.5 +32300
0.02u Fights to go distance U2.5 +4825
0.03u Fights to go distance U3.5 +1308
0.05u Fights to go distance U4.5 +435
0.15u Fights to go distance U5.5 +161
0.05u Fights to go distance O7.5 +413
0.03u Fights to go distance O8.5 +1288
0.02u Fights to go distance O9.5 +5400

0.02u Fight to end in KO/TKO U1.5 +606
0.05u Fight to end in KO/TKO O4.5 +405
0.03u Fight to end in KO/TKO O5.5 +1218
0.02u Fight to end in KO/TKO O6.5 +3950
0.01u Fight to end in KO/TKO O7.5 +20800

0.1u Fights to end in submission O2.5 +245
0.05u Fights to end in submission O3.5 +775
0.03u Fights to end in submission O4.5 +3075
0.02u Fights to end in submission O5.5 +15800

Edit: Added 0.15u Bernardo SUB +1030
 
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PVZ
Mads
Taylor
Kang itd
Krause
Eye
Aldana
Usman/Johnson
Usman/Frevola
 
Mike Santiago 5u -175
JJ Aldrich 2.93u -119
Jessica Eye .75 +105
Alex White 1u +155
Irene Aldana 1.3u -130

Clark/Vanzant GTD/Kang -3.5 2.2u +111
 
i fucking hate my action on this card, feels like straight up gambling. oh well, let's see how it turns out.

Clark £100 returns £208

clark free bet returns £54

Hall, kang £225 returns £299

Mj £200 returns £323

Frevola sub £35 returns £350

Meek £50 returns £300

White £150 returns £345

Burnell sub £25 returns £137

Aldrich £100 returns £190

Kang, Aldrich dec, eye dec, frevola sub, white dec, mj £10 returns £4471
 
+19.5u last event.
-----

2u Ho Choi-Stephens o1.5 (1.58)
2u Rose Clark (1.90)

0.5u Eye (1.90)
0.5u Burnell (2.50)
0.8u Ho Kang ITD (2.37)
0.5u Krause DEC (2.60)

parlays:
0.5u Cummings/Johnson-Elkins o2.5 (2.30)
0.1u Cummings/Taylor/Eye/Clark/Krause-White o2.5/Johnson-Elkins o2.5 /Ho Kang ITD (46.27)

Round Robin:
Eye/Ho kang ITD/Clark/Krause DEC
0.75u to win 2.85u


Edit:
1u Clark (2.00)
 
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Using draftkings and I picked Marcos Reyes to win, and he did! In the first round by ko! And draftkings isn't giving us the people who chose Reyes the points!! Wtf!!
 
1u Michael Johnson ML @-149
1u JJ Aldrich ML @ -120
1u Jeremy Stephens ML @ +140 (going back and forth on this pick for a few days).

2 out of 3 but up only +1u for the night.

Remind me never to bet on Michael Johnson again.
 
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Alex White ML (-1.5u) +135
Jeremy Stephens ML (+1u) +135
Mike Santiago ML (-1.7u) -170
Michael Johnson ML (-1.5u) -170

-3.7u on the night.
 
1u Stephens +170 +1.7u
0.1u Stephens RD4 +2300 -0.1u
0.1u Stephens RD5 +3100 -0.1u

0.5u Meek NSC +413 0u
0.1u Usman RD3 +950 -0.1u

1.5u Johnson -185 -1.5u
0.5u Johnson -3.5 +130 -0.5u
0.1u Elkins SUB +1375 +1.38u

0.1u Johnson ITD/Stephens ITD +1097 -0.1u

Live: 1u Stephens +175 +1.75u

NET: +2.43u

Really liked Stephens as the dog since lines were released but I was a little weary of Choi's early power and figured I'd be able to add live. I was surprised to see him at +175 after the close first round. Should have gone bigger but I thought I'd have more opportunities to add. Oh well, still a good start to the year, I'll take it.

MJ was a terrible bet at that price though, I really need to be more careful betting favorites. At a minimum I should have hedged Elkins +400 after the first.
 
1u Stephens ML +160 +1.6u
1.5u Stephens (SC=NA) +168 +2.52u

0.35u Choi R1 +400
0.3u Choi-Stephens GTD +230
0.25u Choi R2 +650
0.25u Stephens DEC +633
0.1u Stephens split/maj. DEC +1708
0.1u Stephens R5 +3300
0.1u Stephens KO/TKO/DQ R4 +4000
0.1u Stephens KO/TKO/DQ R5 +6600
0.05u Stephens R4 +2125
0.05u Stephens R4 +2300


0.5u Clark ML +100 +0.5u
0.25u Clark (SC=NA) +210
0.25u Clark -3.5 +185 0.463u
0.1u Clark ITD +774
0.05u VanZant SUB. +1065
0.05u Clark SUB. +1450


0.1u Usman R3 +1000
0.05u Meek R1 +1600


0.5u Johnson -3.5 +125
0.5u Elkins-Johnson ends ITD +140 +0.7u
0.3u Elkins-Johnson U2.5 +170 +0.51u

0.15u Johnson R1 +500
0.1u Elkins R3 +2500


1u Krause -3.5 +135
0.2u Krause-White U2.5 +140
0.2u Krause ITD +293
0.13u Krause SUB. +480
0.1u Krause-White won't start R2 +338


0.45u Frevola SUB. +900
0.1u Reyes DEC. +650


1.2u Aldana ML -130 +0.923u
0.75u Aldana -3.5 +128 +0.96u
0.15u Bernardo SUB. +1030
0.06u Aldana SUB. +1050
0.04u Aldana R3 +1400


0.2u Kang KO/TKO +525

3u Eye ML +103 +3.09u
1.04u Eye (SC=NA) -111
1u Eye -3.5 +175
0.1u Eye ITD +408
0.1u Eye SUB. +865
0.1u Eye R3 +800


1u Taylor ML +115

0.05u Burnell KO/TKO +1250

0.4u Parlay
(Johnson -157, Krause -146, Clark -133) +383 -0.4u

RR 11x0.1u (Eye +100, Clark -125, Belfort-Hall O1.5 +140, Stephens +140) +3.792u

RR 57x0.0161u (Stephens SC=NA +160, Clark SC=NA +195, Elkins-Johnson ends ITD +130, Krause -3.5 +170, Aldana -3.5 +155, Eye -3.5 +175) +0.288u

RR 26x0.01u (Eye ITD +350, Santiago ITD +160, Krause ITD +250, Kang ITD +137, Johnson ITD +210) -0.26u

0.01u Fights to go distance U1.5 +32300
0.02u Fights to go distance U2.5 +4825
0.03u Fights to go distance U3.5 +1308
0.05u Fights to go distance U4.5 +435
0.15u Fights to go distance U5.5 +161
0.05u Fights to go distance O7.5 +413
0.03u Fights to go distance O8.5 +1288
0.02u Fights to go distance O9.5 +5400

0.02u Fight to end in KO/TKO U1.5 +606
0.05u Fight to end in KO/TKO O4.5 +405
0.03u Fight to end in KO/TKO O5.5 +1218
0.02u Fight to end in KO/TKO O6.5 +3950
0.01u Fight to end in KO/TKO O7.5 +20800

0.1u Fights to end in submission O2.5 +245
0.05u Fights to end in submission O3.5 +775
0.03u Fights to end in submission O4.5 +3075
0.02u Fights to end in submission O5.5 +15800


Result: +6.266u

Edit: Miscalculated a round robin. It should be correct now.
 
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i don't really regret taking a shot on white, he was live and could have easily won if he'd have handled the anti-grappling a bit better.

mj though was a terrible bet. i told myself i would never bet on flaky fighters again and yet i did it because i saw a huge skill gap.

i didn't like this card at all, glad to have made a small profit.

WINS


Stephens £200 returns £500

Stephens £50 returns £125

Stephens £50 returns £150

Aldrich £100 returns £190

Hall, kang £225 returns £299

Aldana £100 returns £160

Clark £100 returns £208

clark free bet returns £54

LOSSES

Mj £200 returns £323

White £150 returns £345

Meek £50 returns £300

Meek r1 £20 returns £340

Kang, Aldrich dec, eye dec, frevola sub, white dec, mj £10 returns £4471

Frevola sub £35 returns £350

Burnell sub £25 returns £137

Aldana, bernardo draw £10 returns £150

stephens r4 ko £10 returns £260

stephens r5 ko £10 returns £340

PROFIT: £341
 
2u Stephens ML @ 2.45
1.5u Alves ML @ 2.67
0.75u Johnson KO1 @ 6.5
2u Stephens ML @ 2.45 - W
1.5u Alves ML @ 2.67 - P
0.75u Johnson KO1 @ 6.5 - L

2.15u profit
 
Krause over White 3.75U @ $1.62 = $150 to profit $93
Thiago Alves by points 2.5U @ $4.50 = $100 to profit $350
Choi/Stephens 01.5 2.5U @ $1.65 = $100 to profit $65

Decent night for me, I've made back about half of my late 2017 MMA downswing in the last two events (I had lost about 20U over 3 - 4 cards, had around 7.5U each on Lamas and Cub, which made for the bulk of the losses). Steadily building my profits back up, I should probably be a bit more careful with my bet sizing though, try to have 3U be a big bet rather than 5-8U.

Hit:

Krause over White = +$93
Choi/Stephens O1.5 = +$65
Alrich over Taylor 5U ($200) @ $1.90 (late bet) = +$180
PVZ/Jessy Jess goes the distance ~6U ($243) @ $1.42 (late bet) = +102.06

Misses:

Santiago over Burnell 2.5U ($100) @ $1.54 (late bet) = -$100
Choi 2.5U ($100) @ 1.43 (live bet) = -$100

Refund:

Thiago Alves fight = +$0

Total = +$240.06 ~ 6U
 
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I won every bet on all four ladies fights tonight and then the co-main and main events in particular were huge for me. I saw a lot of people talking about the "myth" of Jeremy Stephens' power online this week, but that knockdown and follow-up bombs sure won big for me tonight, especially with the scorecards= no action prop paying even better than the moneyline. Stephens/Choi even got FOTN. 14.92 units profit for a very good start to the year.

UFN 124 Results
Risk $3239.00

Jeremy Stephens (+150) vs Doo Ho Choi $200.00 for $300.00= $300.00
Jeremy Stephens scorecards= no action (+170) $200.00 for $340.00= $340.00
Jeremy Stephens wins by TKO/KO (+350) $35.00 for $122.50= $122.50
Doo Ho Choi wins in round 1 (+500) $40.00 for $200.00= -$40.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 4 (+1850) $10.00 for $185.00= -$10.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 5 (+2350) $10.00 for $235.00= -$10.00
Not Doo Ho Choi inside distance (-138) $138.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Jessica-Rose Clark (+100) vs Paige VanZant $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Jessica-Rose Clark (-110) vs Paige VanZant $110.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Jessica-Rose Clark (-115) vs Paige VanZant $115.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Jessica-Rose Clark +3½ points (-225) $337.50 for $150.00= $150.00
Jessica-Rose Clark wins by 3 round decision (+135) $75.00 for $101.25= $101.25

Kamaru Usman/Emil Weber Meek Under 2½ (+115) $100.00 for $115.00= -$100.00
Kamaru Usman/Emil Weber Meek fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (+215) $50.00 for $107.50= -$50.00
Emil Weber Meek wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+1858) $10.00 for $185.80= -$10.00

Michael Johnson (-190) vs Darren Elkins $190.00 for $100.00= -$190.00
Michael Johnson wins by TKO/KO (+244) $40.00 for $97.60= -$40.00
Michael Johnson wins in round 1 (+475) $25.00 for $118.75= -$25.00
Darren Elkins wins in round 3 (+1825) $10.00 for $182.50= -$10.00

James Krause (-160) vs Alex White $160.00 for $100.00= $100.00
James Krause (-161) vs Alex White $161.00 for $100.00= $100.00
James Krause wins by submission (+450) $25.00 for $112.50= -$25.00

Matt Frevola wins by submission (+650) vs Marco Polo Reyes $25.00 for $162.50= -$25.00

Irene Aldana/Talita Bernardo Over 2½ (-225) $90.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Irene Aldana wins by 3 round decision (+169) $75.00 for $126.75= $126.75

Kyung Ho Kang (-290) vs Guido Cannetti $145.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Kyung Ho Kang -3½ points (-195) $97.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Kyung Ho Kang wins inside distance (+115) $40.00 for $46.00= $46.00

Jessica Eye (-120) vs Kalindra Faria $120.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Jessica Eye wins by 3 round decision (+181) $75.00 for $135.75= $135.75

JJ Aldrich (-125) vs Danielle Taylor $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Mike Santiago (-175) vs Mads Burnell $175.00 for $100.00= -$175.00
Mike Santiago/Mads Burnell Under 2½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00= -$110.00

Jeremy Stephens/Doo Ho Choi FOTN award winner (+250) $20.00 for $50.00= $50.00
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Total Profit= $1492.25
 
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