Your Official UFC 207 Bets

Not exact figures as I'm pretty busy.
.25u shoeface -120.
.5U means +120.
.5u thatch -140.
.5u borg +150 or something hedged at + odds on both sides after weight miss.
.5u tarec +120
.5u Alex Garcia -175

1u RR -155.
2U magny -130 or something.
Total straight up and in parlays.
5u dom
5u Tj
 
UFC 207 Risk: 2,276.27
Nunes +120: 100 for 119.50 / Nunes SUB: 25 for 173.75 / Nunes RD1: 40 for 150 / Nunes RD2: 10 for 92.50 / nunes NSC: 15 parlays / U1.5: 35 parlay / rousey
cruz: 35 parlay / cruz -5.5: 200 for 240 / cruz ITD: 21 parlays / cruz RD5: 5 for 96.25 / cruz NSC: 15 parlays / O2.5: 50 parlays / garbrandt
lineker +199: 200 for 397.50 - 21 parlays / O2.5: 218 for 150 - 50 parlays / dillashaw NSC: 15 parlays
saffiedine +140: 50 for 70 - 21 parlays / saffiedine DEC: 50 for 162.05 / O2.5: 215 for 150 - 85 parlays
smolka -125: 125 for 100 - 21 parlays / smolka DEC: 35 for 102.20 / smolka RD3: 25 for 300 / O2.5: 65 for 50 - 50 parlays / borg
hendricks -199: 99.57 for 50 - 21 parlays / hendricks RD1: 25 for 248.75 / hendricks NSC: 200 for 111.93 - 15 parlays / O2.5: 50 parlays / magny RD3: 17 for 211.50
shoeface -135: 67.50 for 50 / shoeface SUB: 25 for 125 / shoeface RD3: 8 for 102 / vettori
pyle: 21 parlays / pyle RD3: 10 for 132.50 / pyle NSC: 15 parlays / garcia
thatch-price U1.5: 49.70 for 35
means: 21 parlays / means DEC: 30 for 108.60 / means NSC: 140 for 100 - 15 parlays / O2.5: 50 parlays / cowboy
props
DEC O6.5: 13 for 114.40
DEC O7.5: 8 for 263
DEC O8.5: 4 for 972
FOTN: smolka-borg: 10 for 70
parlays
35 for 78.28 nunes-rousey U1.5 -220, cruz -225 & saff-DHK O2.5 -185
100 RR for 306.72: cruzgarbrandtO2.5/ TJlinekerO2.5/ hendricksmagnyO2.5/ DHKsaffO2.5/ borgsmolkaO2.5/ meansoliveO2.5
49 RR for 775.12: cruzITD/ lineker/ saff/ smolka/ hendricks/ pyle/ means
22.50 RR for 633.40: nunesNSC/ cruzNSC/ dillashawNSC/ hendricksNSC/ pyleNSC/ meansNSC
---

ok i'm done, back in an hour, GL tonight, gents!
 
Means
Thatch
Carlos Junior
Magny/Cruz parlay
Garcia/ Cruz parlay
Borg
Dong
Lineker
Nunes
 
6 units Borg +120
2 units Tarec +111

2 units TJ/Lineker >2.5 + Tarc/DHK >2.5 +174
10 units TJ+Cruz +112

3 units Tarec/DHK >2.5
2 units SMolka/Borg >2.5
 
Bust out the choke fellas, I'm going all out! So if I die and you kept out the chalk, draw an outline around my body with the words "Goodfella high on NYE" and don't attempt this at home.

Cruz (-227) RISK: 11.0 Unit(s) To Gain: 4.85 Unit(s)
Nunes (+130) RISK: 5.5 Unit(s) To Gain: 7.15 Unit(s)
Thatch (-161) RISK: 7.6 Unit(s) To Gain: 4.72 Unit(s)
Oliveira (-149) RISK: 5.5 Unit(s) To Gain: 3.69 Unit(s)
Hendricks (+150) RISK: 3.5 Unit(s) To Gain: 5.25 Unit(s)
Dillashaw (-200) RISK: 11.0 Unit(s) To Gain: 5.50 Unit(s)
Saffiedine (+120) RISK: 3.5 Unit(s) To Gain: 4.20 Unit(s)
Carlos Junior (-137) RISK: 11.0 Unit(s) To Gain: 8.03 Unit(s)
Saffiedine / DHK o2.5 (-180) RISK: 8.5 UNITS To Gain: 4.72u

Oliveira -114 3.50u
Nunes +115 2.50u
Cruz By Decision +137 3.70u
Oliveira By Decision +205 2.00u
Pyle Wins in round 3 +1144 0.3u
Cruz wins in round 4 +1648 0.3u
Cruz wins in round 5 +2074 0.3u
Nunes wins in round 1 +253 0.4u
Magny wins in round 3 +1173 0.3u
Thatch By KO,TKO OR DQ +145 4.50u
Borg vs Smolka: Decisions -132 3.00u
Lineker By KO,TKO OR DQ +450 2.50u

Garcia (-189) + Cruz (-227) @ (+120) Risk 5.5u // 6.61u
Oliveira (-149) + TJ (-200) @ (+150) Risk 5.5u // 8.29u
Thatch (-161) + ACJ (-137) @ (+179) Risk: 5.5u // 9.92u
TJ (-200) + Cruz (-227) @ (+116) Risk 11.00u // 12.77u

Cruz/Garbrandt O2½ (-215) + Kim/Saff O2½ (-180) @: +128 Risk 10u // 12.8u
 
My bets for UFC 207 (all bets made on bet 365)

Dillashaw vs Lineker: 4 Units on Dillashaw Straight pick at odds 1.44
Cruz vs Garbrandt: 2.5 Units on Garbrandt by KO/TKO at odds 3.25
Nunes vs Rousey: 4 Units FDGTD at odds 1.10
 
Final card results:

$500 Cruz -189 -$500
$400 Magny -110 +$364
$200 Borg -110 +$182
$200 Means +120 +$0
$200 Means -110 +$0
$250 TJ/Lineker Over -161 +$155
$50 Lineker Decision +650 -$50
$200 ACJ +110 (Live) +110 +$220

+$371

Wtf @ Cruz?! And Cody looking like a completely different fighter. Wtf @ Means giving a win away. Whatever. Worst night ever.
 
1.25u Garbrandt @ +180
1.25u Nunes @ +145
.05u Nunes by Sub @ +600
.01u Nunes by Sub R4
.01u Nunes by Sub R5
.01u Pyle by KO R3 @ +2000
.01u Kim by Dec @ +250
 
4.2u Rousey -140 -4.2u
1u Rousey ITD +111 -1u
0.1u Rousey RD2 +725 -0.1u
0.1u Rousey RD3 +1425 -0.1u
0.1u Nunes SUB +1035 -0.1u

3u Cruz +112 (closes parlays) -3u
0.1u Cruz RD4 +1400 -0.1u
0.1u Cruz RD5 +1875 -0.1u
0.15u Garbrandt RD1 +775 -0.15u
0.1u Garbrandt DEC +1455 +1.455u

3u Dillashaw -112 (closes parlays) +2.67u
1.6u Dillashaw-Lineker o2.5 -160 +1u
0.1u Dillashaw RD3 +1850 -0.1u

1.55u Kim-Saffiedine o2.5 -155 +1u

1.3u Borg -130 +1u
0.25u Borg SUB +335 -0.25u

1.95u Magny -130 +1.5u
0.1u Magny RD3 +1400 -0.1u

2.725u Means +103 +0u
0.1u Means SUB +890 +0u
0.1u Means RD3 +1500 +0u

0.2u Means NSC/Borg NSC/Magny/Dillashaw/Cruz/Rousey +1931 -0.2u
0.1u Means ITD/Borg-Smolka ITD/Dillashaw DEC/Cruz ITD +5091 -0.1u
0.1u Cruz DEC/Rousey SUB +375 -0.1u

0.1u Cruz SUB +540 -0.1u
0.1u Dillashaw ITD +510 -0.1u
0.1u Dillashaw SUB +875 -0.1u

NET: -1.375u

Not a fun night. Felt like I had the Means fight capped perfectly but we all know what happened there. Was totally off on the Rousey fight, and I hate to be that guy, but that fight should not have been stopped when it is was. Cody was extremely impressive, so I'm not mad at all about that loss. Really looking forward to him fighting TJ.
 
Nunes 1u +145
Cruz dec 2u +145, Cruz -5.5 1.25u -125
Dillashaw dec 2.8u -111, 1.07u -107
Kim dec 1u +205, o2.5 1u -140
Borg dec .87u +229
Hendricks dec 1.04u +289, Magny ml 1.3u -130
Carlos Jr dec .62u +326
Garcia KO 1u +175
Thatch KO 1.2u +165, Thatch .5u -140
Oliveira dec .46u +215, Means 1.25u +120, Means no sc 1.6u-105

o4.5 fights go distance 1u -120, o5.5 .5u +275, o6.5 .35u +880, o7.5 .22u +3400, o8.5 .13u +25100

Waiting on WSOF for my round robin but UFC lines its likely to include are Cruz, Dill dec, o2.5 Kim/Tarec, o2.5 Magny/Hendricks, Not Borg itd
Screen_Shot_2016_12_31_at_3_31_16_AM.png


That round robin continues tomorrow with some wsof picks but off to a good start. fwiw that 8u includes .9u gain from RIZIN. Refuse to repost the close lotto ticket Cruz cost me, made this the saddest winning night ever
 
"5 units Means @ -112

0.3 units Lineker @ +215

1 unit Borg @ -111
Stun gun dec 0.13 units +275

Garcia KO r1 0.07 units @ +400

Pyle r3 0.036 units @ +1400

Ronda sub r2 0.07 units @ +800

Nunes KO r1 0.07 units @ +550

Means + Thatch + Garcia + Magny + Borg + Vettori + Cruz + Stun Gun + Ronda 0.07 units for £8k"

Ok so means costs me a fat payout. Feel i called that fight perfectly but a nc is better than a dq! I added another unit to borg after the means debacle so had two units on him in the end which cashed. I bet means before i watched borg smolka tape and i preferred borg but was already too deep on means to go big on borg. Wish id added more so i had 5 units on borg after the means fight as it went exactly how i broke it down and i gave smolka very little chance.

Lineker i was well off on thought lines should have been closer so put a small bet on lineker down. Doh. I wanted to bet tj but wanted him @ -130 lol

Stun dec was a nice payout but i basically broke even on that fight as i lb tarec during r1 as he was getting the better of the striking and disengaging from the clinch. He gassed hard tho and the fight played out exactly why i bet stun gun dec.

Garcia ko r1 hit but i made very little as i lb pyle +600 as garcia was not looking good and if it went longer i was expecting him to fade.

Nunes r1 ko was a nice hit.

Due to means outside of borg the big wins were reliant on lb this event. The big hits were magny ml +300 and magny dec end of r2 +900 @ 365. Ladbrokes had magny dec +1400 end of r2 but i just missed it. Other big one was cody dec +650 twice but the second time i was limited to £25. I also hit his ml @ +175 +100 and -120.

All my betvictor props hit which i added last night. Borg most td's -150, cruz most sig strikes -110, outcome of cruz cody r5 to go to decision +100 (lol) and saff most sig strikes.

Overall 4.2 units profit and year end target hit.

Happy NY
 
2u lineker/dillashaw O2,5 at -150 +1.7u
1,5u saff/kim O2,5 at -140 +1.05u
1,7u mein -110 +0
1u lineker +210 -1u
1u thatch/price O1.5 +125 -1u
1ucruz decision +145 -1u
1.5u borg -109(.6u added after the means nc) +1.4u
1.2u smolka/borg O2.5 + cruz/garbrandt O2.5 +150 +1.8u
0.5u means O2.5 void + hendricks O2.5 +186 +.3u
1u cruz unan dec +210 -1u

.5u hendricks dec +289 -.5u
.1u rousey sub round 2 +1100 -.1u
.5u kim dec +230 +1.15u
.2u garbrandt dec +1455 +2.9u
.3u Thatch + Means + cruz/gabrandt GTD +550 -.3u
.3u Tj submission +1200 -.3u

after the means fight i was looking to live bet the units i got back from the no contest.
as mentioned i put an additional .6 units on borg

LB 2u magny +107 +2.14
LB 1u kim +200 after the fight was already over on betfair (no clue what they were thinking lol) +2

These are the parlays that were absolutely huge for me. I didn't post these since most of them had multiple legs/hail mary's and/or were added later.

1u Borg dec + Magny + dill dec + cruz/garbrandt GTD +2050 +20.5u I actually placed this bet twice accidentally since i planned to only put .5u on it but I ended up with a whole unit LOL. i'm guessing this is karma because the last time i accidentally placed the same bet twice it cost me double.

.9u magny dec + dill dec +538 +4.8u
.5u kim 02.5+cruz O2.5 + means void +hendricks O2.5 + dillashaw O2.5 +545 this was actually +1223 if means wasn't voided +2.72u
1u smolka O2.5 +KimO2.5 +207 +2.07u
1u cruz O2.5 + dill O2.5 +155 +1.55u
1u smolka O2.5 + cruz O2.5 +183 +1.83u

bunch of other parlays and very small bets that were a bust for -3.1u.
at the end of the 4th round of cruz/ garbrandt where cruz got knocked down a couple of times i got scared as fuuuk so i hedged my 20 unit parlay that closed with GTD. So i put 4 units on ITD at +275. so -4u.

End total: + 34 units (too much work to calculate exactly). What a way to end the year. Fucking amazing. Especially considering the way the night started with means nc and thatch shitting the bed. Best night thusfar.

Big thanks to everyone that gave their insight in the threads whether it be breakdowns, certain lines, their own bets whatever it is. You guys are awesome. Happy new year from amsterdam ;).
 
Last edited:
VOID

means £489 returns £934

LOSSES

vettori £30 returns £66

vettori £20 returns 55

borg, saffiedine £100 returns £400

magny, saffiedine, borg, garcia £50 returns £591

hail mary parlay £10 returns £3000

lineker £100 returns £300

WINS

garcia, magny £120 returns £471

kim £100 returns £166

garbrandt £100 returns £300

TOTAL INVESTMENT: £630

PROFIT: £307
 
1u Borg dec + Magny + dill dec + cruz/garbrandt GTD +2050 +20.5u I actually placed this bet twice accidentally since i planned to only put .5u on it but I ended up with a whole unit LOL. i'm guessing this is karma because the last time i accidentally placed the same bet twice it cost me double.
.

wow
 
Thatch -140 to win 1u
Vettori +120 - 2u
Pyle/Garcia o1.5 -145 to win 1u
Means/Cowboy o2.5 -120 to win 1u
Borg/Smolka o2.5 -135 to win 1u
DHK -125 to win 1u
Magny -150 (was on Hendricks and switch sides) to win 1u
Lineker +205 - 1u ... o2.5 -155 to win 2u
Cruz/Gabrandt - nothing
Nunes +125 - 4u

GL to all

Was down 4u going into the Cruz/Garbrant fight, but when I saw the first few exchanges I knew Cruz was going to be exposed for his poor punching technique and that Cody's strategy of standing still and picking him off as he moved into distance was the solution, and went huge on Cody at a +160 average in the first. Then I added 2u to Nunes when she went back up to +150 to end up 10.5u.

Really needed this winning night, as I've lost 8 of the last 11 events (though my wins have been massive to balance it).
 
UFC 207 Net: +443
Nunes +137: 200 for 274.50 / Nunes SUB: 25 for 173.75 / Nunes RD1: 40 for 150 / Nunes RD2: 10 for 92.50 / nunes NSC: 15 parlays / U1.5: 99 for 60 - 35 parlay
cruz +164: 182.50 for 300.15 - 35 parlay / cruz -5.5: 200 for 240 / cruz ITD: 21 parlays / cruz RD5: 5 for 96.25 / cruz +3.0: 49.50 for 45 / cruz +6.0: 150 for 247.30 / cruz NSC: 15 parlays / O2.5: 50 parlays
lineker +299: 275 for 822.50 - 21 parlays / lineker +9.5: 25 for 49 / O2.5: 218 for 150 - 50 parlays / dillashaw NSC: 15 parlays
DHK +260: 30 for 78 / O2.5: 215 for 150 - 85 parlays / saffiedine DEC: 50 for 162.05
smolka -125: 125 for 100 - 21 parlays / smolka DEC: 35 for 102.20 / smolka RD3: 25 for 300 / ITD: 25 for 50
/ O2.5: 65 for 50 - 50 parlays
hendricks: 0 for 25 - 21 parlays / hendricks RD1: 25 for 248.75 / hendricks NSC: 200 for 111.93 - 15 parlays / O2.5: 50 parlays / magny: 0 for 12.93 / magny RD3: 17 for 211.50
shoeface +133: 200 for 265 / shoeface SUB: 25 for 125 / shoeface RD3: 8 for 102
pyle: 21 parlays / pyle RD3: 10 for 132.50 / pyle NSC: 15 parlays

thatch-price U1.5: 49.70 for 35
means: 21 parlays / means DEC: 30 for 108.60 / means NSC: 140 for 100 - 15 parlays / O2.5: 50 parlays
props
DEC O6.5: 13 for 114.40
DEC O7.5: 8 for 263
DEC O8.5: 4 for 972
FOTN: smolka-borg: 10 for 70

parlays
35 for 78.28 nunes-rousey U1.5 -220, cruz -225 & saff-DHK O2.5 -185
100 RR for (paid +212.75) 306.72: cruzgarbrandtO2.5/ TJlinekerO2.5/ DHKsaffO2.5/ borgsmolkaO2.5/ hendricksmagnyO2.5/ meansoliveO2.5
49 RR for 775.12: cruzITD/ lineker/ saff/ smolka/ hendricks/ pyle/ means
22.50 RR for (paid -6.48) 633.40: nunesNSC/ cruzNSC/ dillashawNSC/ hendricksNSC/ pyleNSC/
meansNSC
---

better than i thought i did. nunes was basically my profit, almost to the dollar. i guess i was dead even going into that fight.

cruz +6.0 really helped after i knew i had lost a bundle on that fight.
 
Rousey -130 6u
Rousey RD2 +675 .2u
Rousey ITD -111 1.11u

Cruz +116 1.3u (Played the line movement)

Lineker +210 1u
Lineker SUB +1140 .1u
Lineker/Dillashaw O2.5 -160 2.4u
Lineker DEC +510 .2u

DHK -145/-130 1.4u
DHK/Saffiedine O2.5 -150 1.5u

Smolka -110 1.1u
Smolka RD3 +1075 .1u

Hendricks +110 1u
Hendricks NSC -108 1.08u
Magny/Hendricks O2.5 -175 1.75u

Vettori +130 1u
Vettori ITD +335 .5u

Pyle RD3 +1100 .1u

Thatch -175 2.6u
Thatch RD1 +175 .5u
Thatch KO +150 .5u
Price/Thatch O1.5 +125 1u
Price RD3 +1500 .2u

Means -115 3.5u
Oliveira/Means O2.5 -135/-125 2u

Officially my worst results of the year with a 9 unit deficit. So glad I didn't get greedy playing the Cruz line movement, had 36 units on Cruz -180 and was gonna freeroll with Garbrandt ITD but decided to stick with the +190 moneyline. I hedged some off of Rousey with Nunes +145 but still lost 2 units on her.

This brings my yearly total to +133 units in 2016, planning to be more aggressive with select bets going forward. Enjoy the new year everyone!
 
6.66u Means 1.89 -110 (was gonna hedge this but now I'll just let it ride i guess)
3.33u Cruz -189
3u Dong Hyun Kim -115
2u Dillashaw/Lineker O2.5 -139
0.66u Dillashaw/Lineker O2.5 -161
2u DHK/Saffiedine O2.5 -143
2u Magny +136
1u Magny -123
1u Lineker +200
1u Carlos JR -137
1u Thatch -149
1u Garcia -154


1u Cruz ITD +300
0.4u Rousey SUB r2 +1100
0.33u Lineker DEC +650
0.33u Magny SUB +1000
0.33u Nunes r1 +400
0.2u Dillashaw SUB +1200
0.13u Nunes r2 +1000
0.13u Rousey SUB r3 +3300
0.1u Nunes r3 +1800
0.1u Cruz r4 +3300
0.1u Cruz r5 +4000


0.66u Cruz ML + Nunes/Rousey U1.5 +121
-0.24u

On to the next one
 

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