Year long NFL thread!!!!!!!

[mkess101]

The spreads are locked in and wont change. They're listed below

Vikings -3.5 vs Steelers
Bengals -1.5 vs 49ers
Cleveland -2.5 vs Ravens
Titans -8.5 vs Jags
Chiefs -9.5 vs Raiders
Saints -5.5 @ Jets
Cowboys -3.5 @ Redskins
Panthers -2.5 vs Falcons
Seahawks -7.5 @ Texans
Broncos -7.5 vs Lions
Chargers -10.5 vs Giants
Bucs -3.5 vs Bills
Packers -12.5 vs Bears
Cards -2.5 vs Rams

I can't believe I'm saying this given the line, but I actually think the LAC are the best bet on the board this week. The Giants are an absolute mess, Glennon should not be in the NFL, and Judge might actually be losing the locker room. They gave a healthy Barkley 11 touches last week and let MIKE GLENNON throw the ball 44 times. I don't think they have a clue what they're even trying to do.

The Chargers meanwhile are hitting their stride. They probably won't have Keenan Allen this week which does hurt, but there's plenty of other weapons for Herbert. Their defense did a solid job last week vs Burrow and the Bengal offense too, and the Giants are absolute trash compared to Cincy offensively.

Laying double digit points generally is a recipe for losing in the NFL in my experience and weird stuff happens every week...but man this game REALLY looks like a 34-10 drubbing just waiting to happen.

 

[iGnP]

The first thing I do in situations like this ("stale" lines) is check to see if any have moved by more than a point.

As of 12/08/21 at 1:25EST, we didn't get any move greater than a point.

However, I noticed that the Packers-Bears game is off the board at this time on Bovada. Hmmm. Bears +12.5 seems like a possible play, then.

The others I would play:

Vikings -3.5
Texans +7.5
Cardinals -2.5
Bucs -3.5

I'd be more inclined to stay away from those stale lines, because everyone's going to use them and I need to make up games to get into first place. But thank you for your opinion on the games listed, I agree with one of them, the others I'll look into

 

[iGnP]

I can't believe I'm saying this given the line, but I actually think the LAC are the best bet on the board this week. The Giants are an absolute mess, Glennon should not be in the NFL, and Judge might actually be losing the locker room. They gave a healthy Barkley 11 touches last week and let MIKE GLENNON throw the ball 44 times. I don't think they have a clue what they're even trying to do.

The Chargers meanwhile are hitting their stride. They probably won't have Keenan Allen this week which does hurt, but there's plenty of other weapons for Herbert. Their defense did a solid job last week vs Burrow and the Bengal offense too, and the Giants are absolute trash compared to Cincy offensively.

Laying double digit points generally is a recipe for losing in the NFL in my experience and weird stuff happens every week...but man this game REALLY looks like a 34-10 drubbing just waiting to happen.

Yeah, I definitely see the argument for the Chargers. I can tell you, though, they really really find a way to lose games. I root for the Chargers to come out of the AFC every year but that team is cursed with bad luck. I honestly cant believe they found a win to win that Bengals game. I was sure they were going to pull a classic Chargers move and blow a 24 point lead LOL.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm kinda going back and forth on a few games in my head. Eliminated some games as I dont really see an edge one way or another

 

[iGnP]

OMG 49ers are now 1.5 point favorites?! What, why

 

[Monster Meat]

OMG 49ers are now 1.5 point favorites?! What, why

Niners are a good road team. The deebo loss is huge for them and it’s hard to figure out which team shows up as they have been inconsistent this year but have shown to have better offense and defensive numbers on the road. Also
Cinci has a .500 record at home so they don’t have a very impressive home field advantage.

 

[mkess101]

Cincy is a better team than SF. Especially when the 49ers don't have Samuel. He does a TON for that offense. They use him out of the backfield, he takes short passes and breaks tackles arguably better than any WR in football turning short gains into long ones. He's clutch on 3rd down. Removing him from that offense is a big deal. I'd lay 1.5 at home with Cincy for sure. And if the line actually moved the other way, you may be gaining an edge on people who are playing the line movement and will take the points with SF. (In other words a good game to make up ground on a lot of the field).

 

[iGnP]

Niners are a good road team. The deebo loss is huge for them and it’s hard to figure out which team shows up as they have been inconsistent this year but have shown to have better offense and defensive numbers on the road. Also
Cinci has a .500 record at home so they don’t have a very impressive home field advantage.

Cincy is a better team than SF. Especially when the 49ers don't have Samuel. He does a TON for that offense. They use him out of the backfield, he takes short passes and breaks tackles arguably better than any WR in football turning short gains into long ones. He's clutch on 3rd down. Removing him from that offense is a big deal. I'd lay 1.5 at home with Cincy for sure. And if the line actually moved the other way, you may be gaining an edge on people who are playing the line movement and will take the points with SF. (In other words a good game to make up ground on a lot of the field).

I agree with @mkess101 with no Debo the niners can’t be road favs against a quality team. With that being said I was on the Chargers this last weekend because of the o line injuries to cincy. If they’re getting blockers back, I’m willing to play Cincy. This could also be an overreaction to Joe B’s finger

 

[mkess101]

I agree with @mkess101 with no Debo the niners can’t be road favs against a quality team. With that being said I was on the Chargers this last weekend because of the o line injuries to cincy. If they’re getting blockers back, I’m willing to play Cincy. This could also be an overreaction to Joe B’s finger

The other thing is that San Fran's front 7 are good (when healthy) but their secondary is really inconsistent. The Bengals have 3 legit WR's that are very tough matchups for the San Fran DB's. I think Cincy may keep an extra blocker in more often than normal (be it Mixon or a TE) to help with protection and count on those WR's to win matchups in the secondary. And I would bet on them doing it more often than not.

 

[iGnP]

The other thing is that San Fran's front 7 are good (when healthy) but their secondary is really inconsistent. The Bengals have 3 legit WR's that are very tough matchups for the San Fran DB's. I think Cincy may keep an extra blocker in more often than normal (be it Mixon or a TE) to help with protection and count on those WR's to win matchups in the secondary. And I would bet on them doing it more often than not.

We'll see what happens with the injury report. I'll prob pick Cincy in my contest, have them in a straight ML bet at dog odds, and throw them in a teaser at +7.5, all assuming Deebo is still out. Wagner was also out and I guess I'd need him to be out again too. Cincy played really well against the Chargers. If it werent for a silly INT off of a bobble and a fumble returned for a TD, that game would be completely different

 

[mkess101]

We'll see what happens with the injury report. I'll prob pick Cincy in my contest, have them in a straight ML bet at dog odds, and throw them in a teaser at +7.5, all assuming Deebo is still out. Wagner was also out and I guess I'd need him to be out again too. Cincy played really well against the Chargers. If it werent for a silly INT off of a bobble and a fumble returned for a TD, that game would be completely different

Cincy is a good overall team imo. Their biggest obstacle is that they're young and still learning how to win. Definitely a team on the rise who should be perennial contenders for the next decade assuming they can keep Burrows healthy.

 

[iGnP]

Cincy is a good overall team imo. Their biggest obstacle is that they're young and still learning how to win. Definitely a team on the rise who should be perennial contenders for the next decade assuming they can keep Burrows healthy.

Totally agree. But I have a small bet on them winning the AFC N from preseason so I’m a little biased

 

[Monster Meat]

We'll see what happens with the injury report. I'll prob pick Cincy in my contest, have them in a straight ML bet at dog odds, and throw them in a teaser at +7.5, all assuming Deebo is still out. Wagner was also out and I guess I'd need him to be out again too. Cincy played really well against the Chargers. If it werent for a silly INT off of a bobble and a fumble returned for a TD, that game would be completely different

warner is practicing in full and will be back. Deebo most likely is out.

 

[iGnP]

warner is practicing in full and will be back. Deebo most likely is out.

Thanks for the info. By any chance are you a niners fan? Just curious bc then I can look to you for niners insight as I do w @mkess101 and the stupid overrated packers

I think Deebo is huge for that offense. Warner playing obv isnt ideal but I still think I'd take a shot on cincy if their offensive line is back. that niner secondary is rough and the bengals have a lot of good options through the air

 

[Monster Meat]

Thanks for the info. By any chance are you a niners fan? Just curious bc then I can look to you for niners insight as I do w @mkess101 and the stupid overrated packers

I think Deebo is huge for that offense. Warner playing obv isnt ideal but I still think I'd take a shot on cincy if their offensive line is back. that niner secondary is rough and the bengals have a lot of good options through the air

yep I am. I do Like San Fran in this game. The Deebo loss is huge and their secondary is a concern but I think that injury to burrow is more than they are letting on.

 

[Kazda1]

Anyone have a read on tonight's game?

@Black Paladin you mentioned having liked the Vikings....Any reason why?

 

[Black Paladin]

Anyone have a read on tonight's game?

@Black Paladin you mentioned having liked the Vikings....Any reason why?

Vikings at home
Cousins > Roethlisberger

 

[iGnP]

I LB Vikings at -165 before that field goal attempt. practically the same as what it was before kick off

 

[mkess101]

Thanks for the info. By any chance are you a niners fan? Just curious bc then I can look to you for niners insight as I do w @mkess101 and the stupid overrated packers

I think Deebo is huge for that offense. Warner playing obv isnt ideal but I still think I'd take a shot on cincy if their offensive line is back. that niner secondary is rough and the bengals have a lot of good options through the air

Ha ha the stupid overrated Packers who won at Arizona with your aunt and the clerk from the gas station down the street playing WR for them. Who lost at KC without Rodgers but somehow still were in the game until the end. Who just took care of your Rams without a whole lot of trouble. Those "overrated" Packers LOL?

 

[iGnP]

Ha ha the stupid overrated Packers who won at Arizona with your aunt and the clerk from the gas station down the street playing WR for them. Who lost at KC without Rodgers but somehow still were in the game until the end. Who just took care of your Rams without a whole lot of trouble. Those "overrated" Packers LOL?

Yes, those Packers

 

[guesswhoseback]

Wasnt gonna bet NFL but since I hit a no chance parlay why the fuck not I hit it for 381.15.

Gonna put 301.15$ on the cowboys spread whatever it might be by the time I go to the casino and place it in about an hour or 2. and then 80$ in no chance parlays. If i hit the Cowboys bet since I dont like any of the 1pm games Ill bet the 500$ or so whatever the payout is on a 1pm game but it depends so if more dogs have covered lets say 5-2 since theres 7 early games ill pick a random fav and bet them for 500$ or lets say its its 6-1 in favor of the overs Ill bet a random 1pm game on the under