Year long NFL thread!!!!!!!

Forgot to mention earlier today almost every thanksgiving games always go under in NFL, the cowboys one ended up going over but these other 2 are very low score fests.
 
Need a garbage time td from seimian

he’ll probably throw another pick instead
 
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@iGnP

Just something to consider in terms of Packers/Rams this weekend:

Since Lafluer has been the coach the Packers have lost 7 regular season games. Their record after those losses...7-0.

Sometimes these stats seem to be kind of random or lack context, etc. (Like...who did they play in those games, how many were home vs road, etc). But it's something to consider. A bet on the Rams is betting that a team that's 7-0 after a loss under their current coach is going to lose a home game in bad weather to a team from a warm weather climate.

Eventually the Packers will likely lose 2 in a row with the Rodgers/Lafluer combo, maybe it's Sunday. I can't say I'd be jumping to give points against them in this spot though or even to bet against them in a pick 'em game.
 
mkess101 said:
@iGnP

Just something to consider in terms of Packers/Rams this weekend:

Since Lafluer has been the coach the Packers have lost 7 regular season games. Their record after those losses...7-0.

Sometimes these stats seem to be kind of random or lack context, etc. (Like...who did they play in those games, how many were home vs road, etc). But it's something to consider. A bet on the Rams is betting that a team that's 7-0 after a loss under their current coach is going to lose a home game in bad weather to a team from a warm weather climate.

Eventually the Packers will likely lose 2 in a row with the Rodgers/Lafluer combo, maybe it's Sunday. I can't say I'd be jumping to give points against them in this spot though or even to bet against them in a pick 'em game.
Click to expand...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

But no seriously, I dont conceptualize that argument being made. Yeah there's something there with a 7-0 record but instead of blindly looking at that stat, can we put it in context to this week? Do you think Lafleur is going to out-coach McVay with one less week to prepare? with a hobbled quarterback? and a newly starting 3rd string left tackle? Against a team that needs this game more (coming off of two losses; Packers still lead their division with a L this week and a Vikings W). Do we even have quantifiable evidence the Rams are a poor cold weather team? I cant say yes or no to that personally as I dont have a sample size. I'd be much more concerned with the cold weather negatively affecting A-A-Ron's covid toe (im joking). A broken toe is going to be much more painful in that cold weather. He was in agony at the end of the first half last weekend in a climate controlled dome.

Side note unrelated to betting- I'm not actually joking when I say this but I LOVED what Cardinals are doing with Kyler and Nuk and managing their injuries and keeping them from setbacks in probably meaningless games. I probably would consider doing the same with Rodgers and Jones this week. They dont need to win. But they need Aaron to be healthy and one bad step on the toe can end the Packers season in a meaningless game.

The Rams get to show new wrinkles in this game with Von Miller and OBJ. That's something that the Packers cant prepare for because they dont have tape on what they're going to gameplan for them

The line is now -1.5. I think the Packers would be a great teaser leg as I think this should be a lower-scoring game and getting +7.5 at home is nice. That's all I'd consider if I wanted to back the Packers
 
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iGnP said:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

But no seriously, I dont conceptualize that argument being made. Yeah there's something there with a 7-0 record but instead of blindly looking at that stat, can we put it in context to this week? Do you think Lafleur is going to out-coach McVay with one less week to prepare? with a hobbled quarterback? and a newly starting 3rd string left tackle? Against a team that needs this game more (coming off of two losses; Packers still lead their division with a L this week and a Vikings W). Do we even have quantifiable evidence the Rams are a poor cold weather team? I cant say yes or no to that personally as I dont have a sample size. I'd be much more concerned with the cold weather negatively affecting A-A-Ron's covid toe (im joking). A broken toe is going to be much more painful in that cold weather. He was in agony at the end of the first half last weekend in a climate controlled dome.

Side note unrelated to betting- I'm not actually joking when I say this but I LOVED what Cardinals are doing with Kyler and Nuk and managing their injuries and keeping them from setbacks in probably meaningless games. I probably would consider doing the same with Rodgers and Jones this week. They dont need to win. But they need Aaron to be healthy and one bad step on the toe can end the Packers season in a meaningless game.

The Rams get to show new wrinkles in this game with Von Miller and OBJ. That's something that the Packers cant prepare for because they dont have tape on what they're going to gameplan for them

The line is now -1.5. I think the Packers would be a great teaser leg as I think this should be a lower-scoring game and getting +7.5 at home is nice. That's all I'd consider if I wanted to back the Packers
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I don't think Lafleur outcoaches McVay nah. The 7-0 matters probably but I think it speaks more to a good young coach and an all time great QB simply being fairly unlikely to lose consecutive games. It's not some magical potion that Lafleur has created up there.

I agree on the game, I think it's like a game with both teams in the low 20's that comes down to one possession. Teasing it makes sense, I just wouldn't want to bet the line either way really. The Packers getting points **seems** like a trap. Really good team at home getting points, feels like the books "want" everyone on Green Bay. On the flipside, it's a game where if someone bets the Rams and Rodgers throws 4 TD's and the Packers win they are gonna look back and say "Why the F did I freaking GIVE points to Aaron Rodgers in a game at Lambeau in cold weather?" Line just seems like a hard pass.

I agree on Kyler/D-Hop (although D Hop sitting is KILLING one of my fantasy teams haha). I think coaching staffs need to know their players too and make decisions based on the injuries AND the guys who have them. For example, there's no point putting Kyler out there (even if the games are somewhat meaningful) at 60 or 70%. He's a QB who relies on athleticism more than any QB in the league outside Lamar (maybe Josh Allen in that convo too). Last year he started on fire, then played hurt the second half and was very pedestrian. So playing him at way less than 100% not only puts him at risk of further injury, you're also not getting much of an upgrade in actual performance over a fully healthy Colt McCoy. On the flipside, a Rodgers or Brady at 70% is still a massive upgrade over their backups because it's their experience, ability to read defenses, accuracy, etc. that makes them special. Rodgers can still move a little, but even a hobbled A Rod who has to stay in the pocket is light years better than Jordan Love. So if he can go, there's an on-field benefit for the team. A hobbled Kyler gives the Cards an average QB which is what they have in his backup anyway. So yeah, in short, I agree with you on that one.
 
Rams -2 now

Value on Rams gone now but im not running to bet the Packers
 
The Titans just placed AJ Brown on IR. That means that their top 3 offensive weapons in Henry, Brown, and Jones are currently injured on the cusp of the team playing against the Pats, Jags, Steelers, and 49ers. All four of those teams have been playing good defense as of late and regardless of win or loss, I can’t see the Titans looking very dominant in that four game stretch.

with that being said, all three players will be back at some point. The Titans will be a prime candidate for a buy low SB ticket if their value decreases in the coming month. The team is constructed in a way that makes them a tough game for the top of the conference (holding wins against the Chiefs and Bills already).

just some food for thought
 
$100 Pittman anytime TD +150
$50 Slayton first TD +1400
$50 CMC over 51.5 yards receiving -115
$100 Rams ML -130

this is a no play on the spreads week for me. Maybe something live but alot of close ones.
 
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My 10 early game spreads 5$ each to win like 450


Patriots-7/Hou-2.5/NYG+3.5/Nyg-Un 45.5/Mia+2.5/Cin-3.5/Cin-UN44/

Patriots-Un 43.5/Nyj+2.5/Hou-Un 44.5/Jags+2/Jags-Un 45.5/Car-OV42/Pit-Ov44

Pats-7/Jets+2.5/Tex-Un 44.5/Bucs-3/Jags+2/Jags-UN 45.5/Cin-3.5

{ats-7/NYJ-OV 44.5/Nyg+3.5/NYG-UN 45.5/Car-OV42/Cin-3.5/Bucs-OV53

Titans+7/Hou-2.5/Nyg+3.5/Bucs-OV53/Atl-OV45.5/Mia+2.5/Pit+3.5/

Titans-OV 43.5/Patriots-7/Hou-UN44.5/Phi-3.5/Colts-UN53/Atl-OV45.5/Cin-UN44

Titans+7/Ten-OV43.5/Nyg-UN45.5/Ind+3/Atl-2/Atl-OV45.5/CAr-2.5/

NE-7/TB-3/Atl-OV45,5/Jags+2/Car-2.5/Car-OV42/Cin-3.5/

Hou-2.5/Phi-Ov45.5/Atl-OV45.5/Car-2.5/Car-OV42/Cin-3.5/Cin-UN 44

NE-UN 43.5/Nyj-OV 44.5/Nyg+3.5/Phi-Ov 45.5/Ind+3/Jags+2/Pit-OV44
 
my 10 5$ ML 7 teamers


612.01----HOU/NYG/TB/Jags/Car/Pit/Charg

1,229.27----Nyj/Nyg/Ind/Atl/Mia/Pit/Charg

588.88----Hou/Nyg/Ind/Atl/Car/Cin/Den/

644.66------Hou/Nyg/Ind/Jags/Mia/Cin/Charg

437.96----Hou/Phi/TB/Jags/Mia/Pit/Charg

631.77-----Nyj/Nyg/TB/Atl/Mia/Cin/Den

898.15-----Nyj/Phi/Ind/Jags/Car/Pit/Den

494.18----Hou/Nyg/TB/Atl/Mia/Cin/Den

695.15----Hou/Nyg/Ind/Jags/Car/Cin/Den

662.60----Nyj/NYG/TB/Atl/Car/Pit/Char
 
Eagles-3.5 for 250
Bucs-3 for 250
Jets+2.5 for 250

Last week I went 1-2 and lost all my 20 parlays for 5$ each hopefully I hit 1 parlay this week I dont see how I dont unless I get fucked or god hates me which is both likely true but we will see
 
Sometimes I wonder why I even bother betting the spread before the game. Seems like you can get a better line to live bet if youre willing to wait for the right time about 75% of the time
 
iGnP said:
Sometimes I wonder why I even bother betting the spread before the game. Seems like you can get a better line to live bet if youre willing to wait for the right time about 75% of the time
Click to expand...

Especially if you know your favored team is a slow starter. If a quick TD by the other team happens, you can get quite a few cents in added value by simply waiting a few minutes to bet.
 
Black Paladin said:
Especially if you know your favored team is a slow starter. If a quick TD by the other team happens, you can get quite a few cents in added value by simply waiting a few minutes to bet.
Click to expand...
Exactly. I was considering a bet on the bucs all week and I got them at +5.5 live instead of laying 3. Like ok cool. I didn’t even have to pay juice. If Bucs lose by 7, the bet would have lost anyway so why not lol
 
guesswhoseback said:
My 10 early game spreads 5$ each to win like 450


Patriots-7/Hou-2.5/NYG+3.5/Nyg-Un 45.5/Mia+2.5/Cin-3.5/Cin-UN44/

Patriots-Un 43.5/Nyj+2.5/Hou-Un 44.5/Jags+2/Jags-Un 45.5/Car-OV42/Pit-Ov44

Pats-7/Jets+2.5/Tex-Un 44.5/Bucs-3/Jags+2/Jags-UN 45.5/Cin-3.5

{ats-7/NYJ-OV 44.5/Nyg+3.5/NYG-UN 45.5/Car-OV42/Cin-3.5/Bucs-OV53 WINNNER WINNER WINNER WINNER WINNER

Titans+7/Hou-2.5/Nyg+3.5/Bucs-OV53/Atl-OV45.5/Mia+2.5/Pit+3.5/

Titans-OV 43.5/Patriots-7/Hou-UN44.5/Phi-3.5/Colts-UN53/Atl-OV45.5/Cin-UN44

Titans+7/Ten-OV43.5/Nyg-UN45.5/Ind+3/Atl-2/Atl-OV45.5/CAr-2.5/

NE-7/TB-3/Atl-OV45,5/Jags+2/Car-2.5/Car-OV42/Cin-3.5/

Hou-2.5/Phi-Ov45.5/Atl-OV45.5/Car-2.5/Car-OV42/Cin-3.5/Cin-UN 44

NE-UN 43.5/Nyj-OV 44.5/Nyg+3.5/Phi-Ov 45.5/Ind+3/Jags+2/Pit-OV44
Click to expand...
 
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