Year long NFL thread!!!!!!!

Only had GB -11.5 115 to win 100

Went full degen and livebet Goff O34.5 passing attempts when it was 3rd and 10 for GB @ their 45 @ +105, 200 to win 210

I needed Goff to throw it like 7 times in the final drive and to not score, and he delivered.
 
"True" lines, Week 3 (based on power rankings, rounded to the nearest half-point)

CAR -6
BUF -6.5
CLE -5.5
BAL -8.5
TEN -2
KC -6
NE -1
NYG -2.5
PIT -3.5
ARI -8

DEN -8
LAV -1.5
TAM -0.5 = pick 'em
SEA -2

SF -3

DAL -4

The idea is to check for large discrepancies between the above and the opening lines. This may mean the underdog and the points are the play.
 
Finished off a nice week with the packers to close out a big ml parlay. Next week early looks.

Miami +3.5
Sf -3
Vikings +115
Falcons +3
 
Last edited:
Monster Meat said:
Finished off a nice week with the packers to close out a big ml parlay. Next week early looks.

Miami +3.5
Sf -3
Vikings +115
Falcons +3
Click to expand...


Why are you on the dolphins this week? Just wondering....no shots fired...

This week is gonna be an ugly one....so many spreads are potentially out of control.
 
Kazda1 said:
Why are you on the dolphins this week? Just wondering....no shots fired...

This week is gonna be an ugly one....so many spreads are potentially out of control.
Click to expand...

I think the raiders are a bit overhyped right now. Nobody liked them coming into the season and after 2 games one in which they tried very hard to lose against the ravens and now they are over a field goal favorites. I like the fact Miami is coming off a blowout loss and I don’t see much of a difference between tua and brisett. One last thing is that over 70 percent of the bets are on the raiders. There’s a handful of games this week that look like easy wins and we all know it’s never as easy as it seems.
 
Monster Meat said:
I think the raiders are a bit overhyped right now. Nobody liked them coming into the season and after 2 games one in which they tried very hard to lose against the ravens and now they are over a field goal favorites. I like the fact Miami is coming off a blowout loss and I don’t see much of a difference between tua and brisett. One last thing is that over 70 percent of the bets are on the raiders. There’s a handful of games this week that look like easy wins and we all know it’s never as easy as it seems.
Click to expand...

I kind of thought the same, and not that I was swayed to one side or another - I think if it's so obvious of a play, the line should be moving. It's been holding steady for the most part. Seems like you're on the same train of thought.
 
Monster Meat said:
I like the fact Miami is coming off a blowout loss
Click to expand...

This was precisely the same thought I had when I first looked at your Miami play. Flores is actually one of the best young coaches out there. I will not be surprised if he coaches them to a very competitive showing after such an embarrassing in-conference blowout loss.
 
current MVP odds

Brady +425
Mahomes +550
Kyler +600
Rodgers +1200
Allen +1200
Stafford +1200
Rustle +1200
Dak +1400
Lamar +1600
Carr +2200
Herbert +2800
McCaffrey +4500
Henry +5000
Baker +5000
Hurts +5000
Jameis +5000
Kirk +5500

thoughts?
 
ExitLUPin said:
current MVP odds

Brady +425
Mahomes +550
Kyler +600
Rodgers +1200
Allen +1200
Stafford +1200
Rustle +1200
Dak +1400
Lamar +1600
Carr +2200
Herbert +2800
McCaffrey +4500
Henry +5000
Baker +5000
Hurts +5000
Jameis +5000
Kirk +5500

thoughts?
Click to expand...

Gun to my head if I had to make one play here it's probably Kyler. He's likely going to keep putting up video game numbers in that system. Rondale Moore gives him another legit downfield threat to go along with Kirk (and Hopkins along with Devonte Adams is the best medium depth WR in the NFL). Even the TE Maxx Williams is finding himself putting up numbers in this offense (he's ridiculously open at times because of the combination of Kyler buying time and the attention the WR's draw).

The big thing of course will be...how many games can they win? Getting lucky with the Vikings missing that kick could be huge. That could mean the difference in 11-6 or 10-7, etc. Could mean making the playoffs or not potentially. If he keeps putting up massive numbers, even a wild card berth could be enough to allow the voters to check his name (while missing the playoffs could mean there's no chance he wins it). The division is super tough obviously with SF, the Rams, and the Seahawks. But of those 6 games, really only the 2 vs the Rams stand out as super tough in terms of him putting up numbers. The 49ers defense has a reputation of being super good, but their secondary is actually below average.

I'm a Packer fan, not a Cardinals fan...but my $ would go on Kyler if I had to make a play. +600 isn't super exciting odds for this type of futures bet...but I think Kyler or Brady win it and Kyler's odds are a bit better.

Of course with Kyler running so much there's the injury risk too. Last year he was lighting it up and then had to play hurt the second half of the season...
 
ExitLUPin said:
current MVP odds

Brady +425
Mahomes +550
Kyler +600
Rodgers +1200
Allen +1200
Stafford +1200
Rustle +1200
Dak +1400
Lamar +1600
Carr +2200
Herbert +2800
McCaffrey +4500
Henry +5000
Baker +5000
Hurts +5000
Jameis +5000
Kirk +5500

thoughts?
Click to expand...

Compare to current Super Bowl win odds for the respective team. Mmmm.

That knocks that list down to about five options if I were betting them.

The first five are live in my opinion. Except for my homer pick of Nick Chubb for my Browns.

EDIT: Just to make sure--of course, you can win the MVP without being in the Super Bowl. Just doing my thing.
 
Black Paladin said:
Compare to current Super Bowl win odds for the respective team. Mmmm.

That knocks that list down to about five options if I were betting them.

The first five are live in my opinion. Except for my homer pick of Nick Chubb for my Browns.

EDIT: Just to make sure--of course, you can win the MVP without being in the Super Bowl. Just doing my thing.
Click to expand...

Ha Chubb can't sniff the MVP conversation (and I love the guy as a player, took him 8th overall in my big $ fantasy league and so far zero complaints). There's two words as to why he has almost no chance. Kareem. Hunt. The Browns limit Chubb to about 60% of the backfield work. Whereas guys like Henry, Cook, and McCaffrey get 80-85%. Chubb just isn't on the field enough to be in that mix. When he is, Chubb is every bit the RB those other guys are (and Chubb probably has the best run blocking line in the NFL on top of that). But Hunt is too good a player for them to not use, and it limits Chubb's ability to put up eye popping stats. He'll put up really good stats pretty much every week, but never those like what Henry just did vs Seattle this past weekend.
 
TrueAscension said:
lol no
Ravens too one dimensional
I also agree with the SB prop bet instead of the MVP bet.
If you like Murray take the Cards at 30:1
Click to expand...

Probably a good call. Murray is way more likely to win MVP than Cards to win SB...but not 5x as likely.
 
TrueAscension said:
lol no
Ravens too one dimensional
I also agree with the SB prop bet instead of the MVP bet.
If you like Murray take the Cards at 30:1
Click to expand...
Booooo to you

without Lamar Jackson what would the ravens be?

he carried the team vs the chiefs and if the ravens get to the playoffs it will be because he carried them there. 15 guys on injured reserve. The story is there
 
People really mix up what MVP really means. Especially in basketball. It really irritates me. It's not a second scoring title. It's not a popularity contest.

It's the player whose presence on the team provides the biggest difference. The biggest bang for your buck, if you will. The largest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_over_replacement_player

Not saying any of you right now are doing that. I just had to fume.
 
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