Yair Rodriguez vs Alex Caceres Fight Analysis

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Thesnake101, Aug 5, 2016.

  1. Thesnake101

    Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    Let's talk first about the stand up, since that's where the fight starts:

    From what I saw from Alex in the Cole Miller fight, and from Yair in the Hooker and Fili fights, I think Alex has much better hands. Yair mostly throws check hooks, ducking hooks and rarely throws hand combinations. Alex likes to move a lot more than Yair. He's always bouncing and moving around the octagon, never stays in the same spot unless his back is turned against the fence.

    Yair on the other hand likes to stay planted more, that's not to say he doesn't move at all, but when he moves, he likes to make it count. He always moves away from his opponent's strikes and also moves whenever he's done throwing his strikes. While he doesn't bounce as much as Caceres, he is more effective with his movement in my opinion.

    Yair doesn't move his head much, if at all. He gets caught with a lot of step in punches and it showed in the Fili and Hooker fights. This could be a problem for him against Caceres since Alex likes to throw those type of punches too, not to mention that he always follows them up with combinations and, unlike either of those guys, he doesn't throw many single shots.

    Alex doesn't move his head much either, he never does it when he's in mid combination. He only really starts moving his head when he's on the defensive, and his head movement then is pretty good. That might be a factor during the fight and I think we'll see Alex land a lot of punches in the pocket if he manages to get in there. Yair could catch him with a few punches of his own too.

    Now, on to the clinch:

    Alex's clinch in the Cole fight was one of the things that managed to fuck up Cole's striking rhythm, whenever he started to go on the offensive or had Caceres with his back against the fence, he got tripped by Alex. I don't think he'll be able to do that against Yair, at least not so easily or often.

    Yair has shown that his Judo isn't bad in both his fight against Rosa, and in his fight against Daniel Hooker. Whenever they tried to either take him down or control him against the fence, he managed to either trip them off their feet or reverse position.

    Whenever he's in the clinch he likes to look for any kind of throws or trips he can get, he also pulls guard to look for submission sometimes. I think that when the fight goes to the clinch, it will slightly favor Yair. Even if he got controlled for most of the time there, he would at least be able to score a few takedowns.

    And finally, the ground game:

    I think this could be, by far, where the fight will be at its closest. Both of them have showed that they can hang with most on the ground, although Alex has certainly faced the better grapplers.

    Yair has shown to be really explosive and slick with his sweeps and submission attempts, but, unlike Caceres, he has never finished those attempts in the octagon. He has used them as a base for his sweeps though, and has succeeded at that.

    His top control didn't look that good against Hooker, but against Fili, it did look quite good. Showed great balance and managed to negate Fili's attempts to stand up or reverse position. He also avoided the few subs Andre threw his way.

    Alex's ground game looked sharp most of the time he went to the ground with Cole, aside from the last few minutes of the fight. He didn't give Miller much to work with whenever he was on top of him and managed to score with some ground and pound while avoiding the threats Cole could pose to him off of his back.

    If he can do the same to Yair, (which could be possible if he slows down like in the last round of the Rosa fight) he could get the win. Despite not having the best record, he has shown that he is skilled and can be dangerous everywhere.

    TL;DR: Alex has better boxing than Yair, he also moves his head more than him, albeit only when he's on the defensive. Yair gets caught by a lot of step in punches and rarely throws boxing combos. Both guys will get caught whenever they strike in the pocket.

    Yair has a better clinch game than Alex and will probably trip him whenever they find themselves there.

    Fight is close on the ground but Alex has faced better grapplers and could grind out a decision if he doesn't get swept by Yair.
     
  2. curryjunkie

    curryjunkie mixed marital arts...

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    so then who ya got?
    cos thats 15 paragraphs of...its a toss up
     
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  3. chitoortiz

    chitoortiz Silver Belt

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    Sooooo....who wins TS?
     
  4. Good analysis, but you didn't address what Yair must do to counter the double punch technique.
     
  5. daltonames

    daltonames Black Belt

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    i'm rooting for Bruce Leroy ... but i think Yair takes it
     
  6. Jin Akutsu

    Jin Akutsu Gengar Belt Platinum Member

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    Who wins?
     
  7. Thesnake101

    Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    I'm favoring Yair due to his kicks and ability to fight off of his back. Could see Alex giving him trouble with his boxing. My prediction is Yair via 3rd round KO/TKO. If it goes to the ground, I see Yair sweeping Alex. Probably using some of his submissions as set ups. I think the fight will only go to the ground if Yair wants it to.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2016

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