"A study published in fall 2019 in the
Journal of Economic Perspectives found that by December 2018, Trump's tariffs resulted in a reduction in aggregate U.S.
real income of $1.4 billion per month in
deadweight losses, and cost U.S. consumers an additional $3.2 billion per month in added tax.
[24] The study's authors noted that these were conservative measures of the losses from the tariffs, because they did not take account of the tariffs' effects in reducing the variety of products available to consumers, or the tariff-related costs attributable to
policy uncertainty or the
fixed costs incurred by companies to reorganize their global supply chains.
[24] A study by Federal Reserve Board economists found that the tariffs reduced employment in the American manufacturing sector.
[189][190]
An April 2019 working paper by economists found that the tariffs on
washing machines caused the prices of washers to increase by approximately twelve percent in the United States.
[23] A 2019 paper by Federal Reserve Board economists found that the steel tariffs led to 0.6% fewer jobs in the manufacturing sector than would have happened in the absence of the tariffs; this amounted to approximately 75,000 jobs.
[191][192]
In May 2019, analyses from varying organizations were released. A May 2019
Goldman Sachs analysis found that the
consumer price index (CPI) for tariffed goods had increased dramatically, compared to a declining CPI for all other core goods.
[193] A
CNBC analysis that month found that Trump had "enacted tariffs equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in decades," while
Tax Foundation and
Tax Policy Center analyses found the tariffs could offset the benefits of the
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 for many households.
[20][21][22] The Tax Foundation found that if all existing and proposed tariffs were fully implemented, the benefits of the Trump tax cut would be completely eliminated for all taxpayers through the 90th percentile in earnings.
[194] Another May 2019 analysis conducted by the
National Taxpayers Union warned that the existing and proposed additional tariffs, if fully implemented, would constitute the largest tax increase of the
post-war era.
[195] According to an analysis by
Peterson Institute for International Economics economists, American businesses and consumers paid more than $900,000 a year for each job that was created or saved as a result of the Trump administration's tariffs on steel and aluminum.
[196] The cost for each job saved as a result of the administration's tariffs on washing machines was $815,000.
[196]
Analysis conducted by
Deutsche Bank estimated that Trump's trade actions had resulted in foregone American stock market capitalization of $5 trillion through May 2019.
[197]
Trump announced on August 1, 2019, that he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports beginning September 1; four days later the
Chinese Commerce Ministry announced that China was halting imports of all American agricultural goods.
American Farm Bureau Federation data showed that agriculture exports to China fell from $19.5 billion in 2017 to $9.1 billion in 2018, a 53% decline.
[198] The figure was $21.4 billion in 2016.
[199]
A September 2019 Federal Reserve study found that tariffs Trump imposed through mid-2019, combined with the policy uncertainty they created, would reduce the 2020 real GDP growth rate by one percentage point.
[200]
A study by four economists published in October 2019 by the
Quarterly Journal of Economics estimated that U.S. consumers and firms who buy imports lost $51 billion (0.27% of GDP) as a result of the 2018 tariffs. After accounting for increases in government tariff revenue and gains to U.S. producers, the study authors estimated the aggregate U.S.
real income loss to be $7.2 billion (0.04% of GDP).
[25] The study found that "retaliatory tariffs resulted in a 9.9% decline in U.S. exports within products."
[25] The study also found that workers in heavily
Republican counties suffered the most from the trade war, because retaliatory tariffs focused on agricultural products.
[25]
Between the time Trump took office in 2017 through March 2019, the U.S.'s trade deficit grew by $119 billion, reaching $621 billion, the highest it had been since 2008.
[201] As of January 2020, the Trump administration had imposed tariffs on 16.8% of all goods imported into the U.S. (measured as a share of the value of all U.S. imports in 2017).
[202] The
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published its estimate of the U.S. economic impact from Trump's trade policies:
In CBO's estimation, the trade barriers put in place by the United States and its trading partners between January 2018 and January 2020 would reduce real GDP over the projection period. The effects of those barriers on trade flows, prices, and output are projected to peak during the first half of 2020 and then begin to subside. Tariffs are expected to reduce the level of real GDP by roughly 0.5 percent and raise consumer prices by 0.5 percent in 2020. As a result, tariffs are also projected to reduce average real household income by $1,277 (in 2019 dollars) in 2020. CBO expects the effect of trade barriers on output and prices to diminish over time as businesses continue to adjust their supply chains in response to the changes in the international trading environment.
[202]"
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