Why were so many experts so wrong about JDS v Cain?

[NoStoneUnturned]

This is pure hindsight. JDS had shown to be very difficult to take down, and when taken down, had shown an amazing ability to get back to his feet.

I agree, but I was surprised JDS wasn't confident enough to at least try and box some without immediately dropping his hands most every time Cain came near him. I thought he trusted enough in his TDD enough to open up with his hands more. He didn't and he paid for it

 

[SnowBlynd]

Speaking in certainties is what makes the forum fun. If everyone just towed the line and said 'derp he could win he could lose /derp' this place would be boring as shit.

 

[d0wnfall**]

they're no experts and don't know mma. cain was an easy call to make. simple as that.

 

[TX Fighter]

when you have two great fighters, it's hard to predict what will happen.

We knew JDS could end Cain's night in one punch, since that already happened once in the first fight. We knew JDS is a great athlete.

We knew Cain has great cardio, takedowns, and recovery.

Cain came into the second fight with a better game plan. And he landed a heavy punch in the first round, and JDS arguably never recovered from that. It's possible that that one punch changed the entire fight (and won it for Cain), much like JDS' punch changed (and won) the first fight.

As badly as JDS got his ass kicked, I would not be surprised if he won a third fight. You can bet he will be much smarter, and hopefully we will get to see his jits. Also, he probably won't be expending all his energy defending the takedown or popping back up right away. And definitely, he won't be keeping his hands low since he has felt Cain's power.

they are both monsters. I would expect the third fight to be much closer.

 

[TX Fighter]

this is a stupid thread.

Experts did not "get it wrong".

Most play the odds.

Cain was caught multiple times by strikers (i.e. Cheick Kongo) and Junior was at the top of the food chain amongst the strikers.

"Experts" as you noted work with perception, previous encounters and what they "think" both fighters improved up until that fight.

Sam way as Cain improved his stricking, Junior could have improved his Cardio.

His TDD was great, and continued to be so (He defended a lot and when taken down came back up each time).

Obviously this is MMA. Anything can happen.

For you to treat like the first KO was a fluke shows how dumb you are and how stupidly biased is this thread.

"I had cain"
yeah, right. Everyone had. It is a wonder how Junior was ever the favorite.


I just can't understand how people leave in this wonderland, dreaming up facts they pull out of their ass to make up their own reality as owner of the truth.

This fight was determined by one punch. By a guy who is not a stricker.
Can he beat people stricking? sure. he did that before, but it is not his forte!

But to claim now that Junior does not have a chance against Cain is as stupid as people that claimed Cain didn't stand a chance against Junior!

Each fight is unique. Anything can happen, because one punch thrown can land and change the story of the fight.
It happened for Junior the first time, and it happened for Cain on the second encounter.


That does not make everyone wrong. Just proves that fighting business is unpredictable. That is it.

my thoughts exactly. I didn't see your post when I posted mine.

 

[hugoooo]

These same 'experts' said that Sonnen would crush Anderson on the rematch...

There aren't such thing as 'experts'

 

[PabloZed]

I think a lot of folks did get it wrong, and they were very convincing. I personally did not read a single analysis that predicted the fight correctly. Yes, people did emphasize Cain's gas tank and his wrestling (of course), but I don't recall any analysis conclude that Cain would basically bumrush JDS, pressure him like crazy, and beat him up.

But that is what makes sport great.

 

[Dionysian]

who exactly were the experts?

That was before the first fight man

The answer to TS's question is the same answer to why everyone says every champ is unbeatable. Until they lose and then are overrated. Because MMA fans are bandwagon jumping assholes. They are %110 sure about things that have ALREADY HAPPENED (ie gifs of any nature, or who fightfinder says won, or what happened in JDS/Cain I in this instance). They latch onto that and then bash accordingly in whichever direction history was blowing. Until they are proven wrong, then they swing the opposite direction and pretend the past never happened. Rinse/repeat.

 

[The_Renaissance]

Im no expert. But my thinking was, if JDS only needs one shot, 5 rounds is a long time to go if Cain can't get the takedown. Boy, was I wrong!

 

[fightdonttweet]

indeed, cain had all the attributes in heinsight to destroy a two point striker with relatively untested defensive boxing at that level, and a worrying belief in his own promotional material. whilst its obvious jds is no art jimmerson, he had never demonstrated offensive prowess in wrestling, kicking or bjj.

Cain also had all the striking deficiencies to get knocked out again and had never taken down a fighter with great tdd. You can say anything in hindsight.

 

[jjjjjjjjjjohnny]

i think jds underestimated cain. the price of dominating him on Fox.

 

[fightdonttweet]

Im no expert. But my thinking was, if JDS only needs one shot, 5 rounds is a long time to go if Cain can't get the takedown. Boy, was I wrong!

I had the same thoughts. Nobody could have predicted JDS would be a zombie for most of the fight.

 

[Lucario**]

who else would be the hw goat?

i doubt a MIDDLEWEIGHT would do that to jds

lol

HW division is weak

 

[Soul Slasher**]

In their two fights, each guy has dominated with his strength. The fact that the 1st fight ended so quickly is a testament to JDS' power, while the 2nd fight showed how dominant a wrestler Cain is.

If they fought a 3rd time I would expect a pretty even fight over 5 rounds, since now each knows what the other brings.

Make no mistake, JDS is still the 2nd-best HWT in the world, and on any given day he's the best.

It was Cain's Boxing that really change the course of that fight though.