Why Rousey is likely to retire undefeated

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by DysDave, Oct 11, 2013.

  1. DysDave

    DysDave Blue Belt

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    I see a lot of similarities between Rousey and Jones in terms of people being desperate to discredit them. I get that disliking someone makes you want to lose, and even create scenarios where someone is obviously going to beat them. But let's look at the reality here, of Rousey's strengths and weaknesses.

    Physicality

    Rousey is extremely strong. She's technically good, but she's also a beast physically. Bearing in mind she used to compete (and medalled) at 145lb in Judo, transitioning to 135lb with no noticeable strength loss puts her right at the top, and coupled with her technique means she can ragdoll almost anyone. The only person who is realistically stronger physically is Cyborg, who can barely make 145lb (and now will fight at 155lb, if that works). Rousey makes 135lb easily, so it's pretty unlikely they're crossing paths. Other than that, we're looking at McMann being the only candidate that has the power and technique to compete with Rousey.

    Speed

    Rousey is pretty middle ground on speed. Her reactions are incredible though- her Judo background gives her an instant feel of where her opponents weight is based, and the second they go off balance- she'll take them down. Her hand speed isn't great, but she's not a striker...

    Striking

    Which leads into her only significant weakness. Technically speaking, her actual striking isn't bad, but her defence is awful. She only needs to use her striking to set up the clinch though, and she has a good rangy jab to close distance. The upside for her here is that women don't hit hard enough for the striking to be a big deal, unless she can't close the distance to clinch. If she was a HW man, any decent striker would be knocking her out- but even Cyborg doesn't have real OHKO power. Provided she can eat a strike or two to close, once she gets the clinch she has a distinct advantage. Holly Holm may cause a problem, and McMann again has the edge striking- if she can keep it standing.

    Grappling

    This is one of Rousey's greatest strengths, but I also think it's her second biggest weakness. Coming from a Judo background, giving up your back just isn't a big deal- because wearing a gi makes defending chokes a lot easier, and if your back is taken on the ground, you only have to stall for a little before the ref will stand you back up. A lot of Judo throws require you to risk giving up your back, especially her favourite hip toss- and opponents will pick up on that. It's a small window, but definitely one to exploit. Having said that, her skill, grappling and tenacity makes it very hard and risky to try and beat her via submission- if you can't pull it off, she's got you right where she wants you.

    Submissions

    This is an interesting one. A lot of people believe Rousey's only weapon is the armbar, and whilst everyone agrees it's lethal, if someone can defend it- what else does she have?

    Well firstly, she has a shitload of subs in her arsenal, and I think she's keeping them quiet to keep some cards up her sleeve. If they can't defend the armbar, why reveal more than you need to? That's clearly her favourite, and it's been successful so far.

    Secondly, people don't realise that it's the setup that makes it so hard to defend. It's like watching a tennis match where a guy has a lethal forehand, and saying 'well, just don't hit to his forehand, derp!'. Part of the skill is in pushing the action towards exactly that, and she has a multi-step process to force you towards the armbar, and multiple separate transitions towards it. If you defend one, she moves into another, defend that and she might find an opening for the first again. It's just not as simple as that, she is a truly elite grappler fighting way above the competition. Unless another elite Judoka or BJJ artist comes in, who has a similarly strong mindset to her, people will keep getting caught. You can't negate a lifetime of Judo with a year of BJJ training.

    Cardio

    Unproven, so impossible to say as yet. But as an Olympic Judoka, her cardio is probably pretty decent, especially amongst women. Hard to say until someone manages to take her out of the first round, but in the Tate fight it was a pretty furious pace and she looked fresh at the end of it.

    Heart

    A lot of people point to Carmouche as being close to submit her. Well, Vitor nearly subbed Jones too, right? But people credited him with being tough enough to fight it off, and then dominate the fight- he gained respect for that. Rousey should get the same, because she showed she has the determination to fight off what must have been an insanely painful neck crank, not panic, and calmly pick off the hooks. Watch the fight, she chooses to ignore the neck and focus entirely on the legs, which enabled her to shake her off. Most people would pull at the arms instead, wasting energy and allowing the opponent to fortify their position. She showed a lot of strength against adversity. When Tate got her back too, she showed great composure and shrugged her off without too much difficulty.

    Overall

    Rousey has all the tools to be the best in WMMA for a long time. The lack of KO power really reduces her biggest weakness, her strengths are above anyone there right now, and it's unlikely anyone will change that. Grapplers are going to be the strongest in WMMA due to lack of KO power. Her biggest threats are Cyborg, McMann, and Holm. Cyborg is just unlikely to happen, their fight weights are like 15/20lb apart. Even if they do fight, I could see Rousey beating Cyborg- Carano got her in mount, and Rousey is infinitely better on the ground than Carano. She wouldn't have let her out. Holm is a possibility, but I don't think her TDD is nearly good enough to keep it standing. The only realistic contender is McMann, and it comes down to whether she can keep Rousey off her and outpoint her standing. The two are similarly matched for strength by the looks of things, have a similar grappling pedigree, and McMann has an edge striking. But I think that match hits the mat at some point, and from there- despite her wrestling- McMann gets subbed.

    Tate, Zingano, all the rest- they're just leagues behind. Rousey will retire in a few years undefeated, and love her or hate her- she will have done more to help WMMA than any female in it's history.
     
  2. DaleBoca

    DaleBoca Silver Belt

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    Oh?
     
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  3. FenoxSky

    FenoxSky Brown Belt

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    Sorry but I see you presenting your opinions as elongated facts.
    I don't think Rousey will retire undefeated, the girl is too much into fighting, she loves it, so I don't see her retiring anytime soon, but at the same time I think she will get figured out, and beaten eventually.
     
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  4. mmafan0

    mmafan0 Blue Belt

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    Rousey will probably retire in a few years to pursue acting full-time.

    If we're lucky, both Rousey and Carano will take a break from their acting careers to fight each other.
     
  5. Fuzzybread

    Fuzzybread Blue Belt

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    Yep. Ronda is pretty good
     
  6. Fresh Burek

    Fresh Burek Black Belt

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    Rousey is palhares of women's division. Once a female Alan Belcher shows up, rousey is losing.
     
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  7. Satanical Eve

    Satanical Eve Cro Cop's Left Leg Platinum Member

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    Jon Jones is well rounded though unlike Rousey
     
  8. KSchwarz

    KSchwarz Purple Belt

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    She will last until female MMA evolves more and a *good* female fighter shows up.

    Or until she and Cyborg agree to a fight, whichever comes first :p
     
  9. Da Speeit

    Da Speeit CANCEROUS POSTER Platinum Member

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    Yeah, if she retires in the next year.
    She's an amazing athlete, but women's MMA will catch up. Unlike Jon, she hasn't practically cleaned out a division

    There still tons of girls that offer her tons of problems, McMann being one of them and in the opinion of many, the girl who is going to beat her.
     
  10. evansusmc2

    evansusmc2 Black Belt

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    Another guy created a thread like this but some dude mentioned how "Fallon Fox will destroy Rousey but Dana will never let that fight happen.

    That thread lasted 30 minutes then got deleted.
     
  11. Redhawks100

    Redhawks100 Gold Belt

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    I feel like a female Fedor is going to come in and annihilate her.
     
  12. DysDave

    DysDave Blue Belt

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    Don't you see the problem here? You're talking about a higher level of evolution in the sport. Far more pertinent would be to say Rousey is the Royce Gracie of women's division- someone who is simply ahead of their time on the ground compared to everyone else. Someone as good as her on the ground needs to turn up to stop her.

    Rousey has more than just the sub advantage, like I said- she has physical strength, will and determination through adversity, and her stellar grappling. Someone has to show up being better at all of that, and I don't see it happening.

    Jones may be more rounded, but he's also fighting a far higher level of competition. He needs to be that rounded to survive- Ronda doesn't.

    And although some of this is opinion, and I've stated where it's opinion, feel free to tell me where the facts are incorrect.
     
  13. Raul24

    Raul24 Brown Belt

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    none of that,

    shes retiring to become an actress
     
  14. evansusmc2

    evansusmc2 Black Belt

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    Nothing wrong with a one-trick-pony if it works every time against opponents who know its coming but can't stop it.

    How is that not intriguing to you?
     
  15. Bazooka1**

    Bazooka1** Banned Banned

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    Who gives a damn. It's womens mma. Retireing undefeated don't mean crap.
     
  16. Fresh Burek

    Fresh Burek Black Belt

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    Physical strength? That's your opinion. She hasn't seemed drastically stronger than her opponents and nearly got subbed in her last fight.

    She is one dimensional. Jon Jones is not.
     
  17. dredricktatum

    dredricktatum White Belt

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    This is the best thing I've seen on Sherdog in awhile. Kudos.

    I generally agreed with your assessment of Rousey's skill set. I think her striking will steadily improve. As regards knockout power in WMMA, I think you may be discrediting the actual weight class a bit in favor of focusing on the fact that they are women. Looking at the men's bantamweight division, there are certainly knockout artists(see: Renan Barao), but as a division we don't think of the average 135lber as having knockout power. There's no bantamweight Hendo or Big Country that I can think of currently. When analyzing men's MMA, we generally attribute this fact to the difference in weight, size, and scaling of power versus chin. That's not to say that I don't think Barao wouldn't knock Rousey the fuck out. He would. Probably in horrifying fashion. The difference in power between divisions of equal weight and separate genders can likely be attributed to two factors: 1) It is a biological fact that the male frame is "more muscular" than the female frame. This is not a value statement, just an evolutionary/physiological truth. 2) It is my belief that bantamweight men are cutting more weight than bantamweight women. This should be caused by a few reasons, one of which is the fact that there is only one WMMA division in the UFC at the moment. Rousey would probably have to fight Cyborg at 145 if the UFC had a 145 WMMA division.
     
  18. 5H3RD0G

    5H3RD0G Silver Belt

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    She is so focused a little too focused unless her opponent is sharp and attacks when a flaw is spotted she will be tough to beat. I know some gals that might give her a run for her money but they have to work on a couple things and no it is not Cyborg. :icon_lol:
     
  19. Omni**

    Omni** Brown Belt

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    shes retiring in 5 fights . 2 per year
     
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  20. IloveTHIS

    IloveTHIS Gold Belt

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    lol. Im not loling because your comment was funny, but lol.
     
  21. DysDave

    DysDave Blue Belt

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    She doesn't have to be drastically stronger. Just stronger will do. And the way she can get Tate and Carmouche off her back without too much trouble is a testament to her strength (as well as technique, for sure). Her grappling strength is superior to almost all of the competition.
     

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