Why Luque is favorite over Chiesa?

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Luque has been an extremely protected fighter for a really long time because he's a striker in a wrestler's division, he's perceived as entertaining by fans, so he's mostly been given fighters that wouldn't try to wrestle him, particularly in his last 10 fights. This had led to the misperception that he's a good grappler. He's not, he's simply protected from fighting good grapplers. There's always been a portion of the fanbase that has this dream that he'll one day be the champ. I don't think it will happen. Even as Kamaru Usman's sun begins to set, fighters like Khamzat and Shavkat will be rising through the rankings who will pose stylistic problems for him if he ever gets that high.

Can Chiesa specifically beat him? I don't really think Chiesa is a great grappler, he's just like the UFC's dedicated guy to represent grapplers, sort of a fall guy. The move to WW definitely helps because WW is generally a better division for wrestling than LW, the extra mass helps you be a lot more effective in a lot of grappling positions. For me it's a pickem fight. Luque is the slight favorite right now, I don't find that unreasonable.
 
The most recent odds have this a close fight -

Moneyline:
Michael Chiesa: (+102)
Vicente Luque: (-124)

Luque has a better resume and is more athletic so the odds look about right. Tough to bet on this one because Chiesa is legit and improving. I think Chiesa has a real chance if he can get the fight to the ground and Luque's TD defense is suspect.
 
Cameron said:
If Chiesa can't get the takedown, do you really see him winning?

It's classic striker vs grappler match.
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Yeah but I think he gets the takedown, Luque ain't got great TDD, I think the bigger question is whether or not Luque will be held down.

If this was 5 rounds, I'd go with Luque, but 3 rounds? I'd feel more confident betting that Chiesa controls Luque for 2 rounds.
 
rear naked ankle pick said:
since when is Chiesa top fighter?
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I don't disagree if you look at his UFC career as a whole but he has looked like a world beater at 170 his last few fights. I dont think he matches up well with Usman but I could see him potentially decisioning or submitting anyone else in the division (except for Leon thats a tough fight).
 
JJCc said:
Yeah but I think he gets the takedown, Luque ain't got great TDD, I think the bigger question is whether or not Luque will be held down.

If this was 5 rounds, I'd go with Luque, but 3 rounds? I'd feel more confident betting that Chiesa controls Luque for 2 rounds.
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Oh I agree. Chiesa should win. But he matches up poorly with the top three so I hope he doesn't win. Luque if he could improve his TDD could actually be an interesting match up and pose a threat.
 
Because Vicente is a very tough match. He has a steel jaw, cracks hard and often, and is quite skilled on the ground himself so it's not like he's some fish out of water if a grappling exchange happens. Magny is a fine fight, but honestly I think Vicente is a much tougher test. Not to mention Vicente has only lost a single fight to Wonderboy in going on 4 years. 9-1 during that time with stoppages in every single victory except for 1 of those wins. Vicente is very good.
 
TempleoftheDog said:
Make your bet, and post your bet slip. Instead of making a pethetic thread. The reasons are obvious and I bet many people have explained them by now.

You trolling contrarians are just too much. Literally the base level of lame. Or is it honest stupidity.
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Real idiot here is you. And your lame insults are pathetic.
 
supnavarili said:
First of all I am huge fan of Luque. He is great finisher, he has granite chin. But he is near top, not a top fighter. Maverick is undoubtfully top fighter. And Luque has shit TDD. No name Graves and Edwards wrestle f*cked him. And I am scared to see how Chiesa will declass him by wrestling. Chiesa win by humilation, no?
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Aged well
 
supnavarili said:
First of all I am huge fan of Luque. He is great finisher, he has granite chin. But he is near top, not a top fighter. Maverick is undoubtfully top fighter. And Luque has shit TDD. No name Graves and Edwards wrestle f*cked him. And I am scared to see how Chiesa will declass him by wrestling. Chiesa win by humilation, no?
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Chiesa is a bum who can wrestle
 
Dorkman said:
Tried to tell ya. People need to stop sleeping on Vicente. Guy is a gamer anywhere the fight goes.
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I picked him to win but not like that. When Chiesa had his back I thought he was done. Great performance.
 
supnavarili said:
First of all I am huge fan of Luque. He is great finisher, he has granite chin. But he is near top, not a top fighter. Maverick is undoubtfully top fighter. And Luque has shit TDD. No name Graves and Edwards wrestle f*cked him. And I am scared to see how Chiesa will declass him by wrestling. Chiesa win by humilation, no?
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I thought you would be right Bro.

Luque really did well.

Guess we were both wrong
 
JoeRowe said:
Chiesa was caught in a d'arce by Masvidal, I could see Luque slapping one on him as its by far his submission of choice. Chiesa shoots a sloppy td and leaves his neck exposed.

If Luque by sub is +1600 or better like it was vs Woodley it may be worth a stab.
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Great call
 
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