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why is Trump inevitable?
- Thread starter IGIT
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If Rubio loses his home state in the primary, that would be a political loss I've never seen another politician come back from.
If he can't at least achieve a striking distance 2nd place in Florida against Trump, that will likely be the end of his presidential aspirations for the next two decades, if not the rest of his life.
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Why is Trump doing so well and seems inevitable at this point is one simple reason:
Trump gives us hope.
If your unable to grasp that, the appeal of Trump will remain a mystery to you.
Trump gives us hope.
If your unable to grasp that, the appeal of Trump will remain a mystery to you.
H
Hallelujah
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Gain what? 6 votes?
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7 if Bush votes for him.
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I think Cruz will get the least of the now available Bush votes.
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"Anybody with any sense who takes that job (the Presidency) and thinks they can handle it must be an idiot."
- Merle Haggard
Donald Trump has the arrogance that he can do no wrong and can handle any contingency. There's a fine line between confidence and idiocy.
- Merle Haggard
Donald Trump has the arrogance that he can do no wrong and can handle any contingency. There's a fine line between confidence and idiocy.
H
Hallelujah
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Being President is probably the easiest job in the world. Obviously if you're a sold out traitor who works for billionaires then yea the job would be confusing and stressful.
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That's nice, a politician in the past, had in fact, used the word hope during a campaign.
Do you understand that using the word "hope" and giving people the reaction of hope are two different thing?
You dont think that Obama was running on the hope of having a better America? I do, that is why he won by a landslide, people bought into that message.
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http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-trump-leads-when-it-comes-second-choice-cruz-top
28% of Rubio supporters have Cruz as 2nd choice, 10% have Carson, 9% have Trump. Trump doesn't get 20% as second choice candidate from anyone's supporters except Cruz and Carson
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Hello IGIT,
Objectively speaking, I'd estimate Trump has a 98% chance of winning the nomination at this point.
There's never been a candidate that won both NH and SC and lost the nomination, and he won them by double digits, and he's going to win Nevada by the same margin.
Cruz has the lead in Texas, on Super Tuesday, but they split delegates there proportionality. That's the only state he has a large lead in, his home state.
The fact is, the other candidates fracture the anti-Trump vote. Cruz is the only one that has beat him, but Trump, Carson, and Rubio has effectively labeled him as a 'liar.' Carson won't drop out, for reasons we can only speculate on. Kasich has no chance, but is praying for a VP offer or a brokered convention. Rubio hasn't come close to beating Trump anywhere, but thinks he now holds a chance since most of Bush's support will fall behind him. Cruz suffered a huge blow last night by coming in third in a state with huge evangelical population, his targeted demographic. If he loses there, the question is where else could he win, other than a proportional number of delegates in Texas.
So, with four other candidates staying in with no sign of any dropping out, there won't be a lone challenger to Trump's poll numbers. With every passing primary, his delegates will grow while they keep fighting over will come in second.
That about cover it, IGIT?
D
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Hi!
I'm just an observer of American politics and don't want to hijack your thread IGIT, just looking for your opinion on whether or not people like Trump or Cruz will be President even if they get the nomination. To me it seems like the political pendulum has swung more to the left in recent years and i don't think there's going back anymore unless the Republican party reinvents itself. To answer your original question I do think Trump is stoppable, I think he's good at staying in the public's minds but in the end the more moderate Republicans will prevail with the support that they'll get from Bush and Kasich once they drop out. But then again I thought Bush wouldn't win the second time around soooo....
I'm just an observer of American politics and don't want to hijack your thread IGIT, just looking for your opinion on whether or not people like Trump or Cruz will be President even if they get the nomination. To me it seems like the political pendulum has swung more to the left in recent years and i don't think there's going back anymore unless the Republican party reinvents itself. To answer your original question I do think Trump is stoppable, I think he's good at staying in the public's minds but in the end the more moderate Republicans will prevail with the support that they'll get from Bush and Kasich once they drop out. But then again I thought Bush wouldn't win the second time around soooo....
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two things:
1. people want to be entertained. and they want it in short doses, which is why social media is so successful. 2 minute video clips, cartoons, memes, whatever. why watch a 3 hour debate where trump says mostly nothing, when you can wait the next day for the sound bytes and clips of him bullying jeb or mocking cruz. social media is a huge driving force behind his campaign.
2. exploits fear. for now this is a tactic just for republicans, since they eat this kind of shit up. ban the muslims and mexcians, and build a wall on the border. it's so stupid that i can't believe it's even working. but trump knows how to manipulate people and the media. he just has to be a dick.
case in point, the last town hall. a guy got up and grilled trump for saying bush lied about iraq. and trump literally dodged the entire question. cooper even asked him directly, several times, about whether he thinks bush lied. and he just flat out refused to answer it.
then....nobody gave a shit. people are so fickle that they forget everything that happens from the day before. that's what a zillion things on your social media outlets will do to you - kill short term memory.
if he wins and goes on to the general election, i have no doubt in my mind he can manipulate the media to ignore everything he said before in the primaries. fuck, he could even say "i love mexicans, i never said i'd deport them, and i never said i'd build a wall and make mexico pay for it. nope, i never said that, anyone saying i said that is a liar." and i bet that would fucking work.
1. people want to be entertained. and they want it in short doses, which is why social media is so successful. 2 minute video clips, cartoons, memes, whatever. why watch a 3 hour debate where trump says mostly nothing, when you can wait the next day for the sound bytes and clips of him bullying jeb or mocking cruz. social media is a huge driving force behind his campaign.
2. exploits fear. for now this is a tactic just for republicans, since they eat this kind of shit up. ban the muslims and mexcians, and build a wall on the border. it's so stupid that i can't believe it's even working. but trump knows how to manipulate people and the media. he just has to be a dick.
case in point, the last town hall. a guy got up and grilled trump for saying bush lied about iraq. and trump literally dodged the entire question. cooper even asked him directly, several times, about whether he thinks bush lied. and he just flat out refused to answer it.
then....nobody gave a shit. people are so fickle that they forget everything that happens from the day before. that's what a zillion things on your social media outlets will do to you - kill short term memory.
if he wins and goes on to the general election, i have no doubt in my mind he can manipulate the media to ignore everything he said before in the primaries. fuck, he could even say "i love mexicans, i never said i'd deport them, and i never said i'd build a wall and make mexico pay for it. nope, i never said that, anyone saying i said that is a liar." and i bet that would fucking work.
IGIT
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hello Gear Solid Metal,
it covers it, but...
...well, correct me if i'm wrong, but both Florida and Texas can be winner take all, in regards to the delegates at stake. winning either state completely obliterates Mr. Trump's current lead, no?
- IGIT
IGIT
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hi there Scoopj,
but the better odds are fluid...citing gambling sites is alright, i guess, but i don't find it very interesting. if that was all we were inclined to do, then there would have been no rationale for discussing Mr. Trump at all last autumn;
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/11/investing/donald-trump-odds-winning/
imagine trying to talk about Mr. Trump's possibilities last October and someone responding with, "no, there's no reason to, i checked the betting odds".
that seems kind of boring to me, but more to the point, it would have been an inaccurate way to forecast 2016.
as it stands now, there are soooooo many delegates at stake, with Mr. Rubio's homestate, Florida and Mr. Cruz' hometurf of Texas still in play.
like i said, i don't get why so many in the media are calling Mr. Trump's nomination a fait accompli.
- IGIT
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Whatup IGIT,
Texas splits it's delegates based upon counties won. Not sure about Florida.
So Cruz will win the majority of the delegates in Texas, in all probability. But there's still a shitload of other states on Super Tuesday. There hasn't been many reliable polls taken in recent weeks in those states.
After Super Tuesday, most of the primaries are winner takes all, reguardless if it's decided by double-digits, or a single vote.
-Gear Solid Metal
