why is Trump inevitable?

[IGIT]

hi all,

i've one question for the forum; what is it that makes the nomination of Mr. Trump a fait accompli?

i get that he has 61 of the 1,237 delegates needed to take the nomination, but there is still a ways to go. he seems to have a throttlehold of 30-35% of the GOP electorate, but Mr. Rubio is going to undoubtedly gain from the exit of Mr. Bush.

if Ted Cruz weakens as the race goes on, is the assumption that his supporters will flow into Trump's camp?

- IGIT

 

[TeTe]

There's really no logic to it, which why he just might win the nomination. Most people aren't very logical.

Meanwhile, the Democratic machine is doing it's best to make sure Shrillary gets the nomination by a landslide so that Bern's popular vote doesn't mean a thing.

 

[Jack V Savage]

False premise. Trump's odds are a little over 50% at this point.

But, yeah, Rubio will benefit a little from Bush's exit. Trump will get some of those (few) supporters, and Rubio will get a little more. Trump will probably get more of Carson's supporters. Rubio will get more of Kasich's supporters. Overall, it's a pretty even battle between Rubio and Trump, with Cruz still alive. Like 50-40-10.

 

[IGIT]

False premise. Trump's odds are a little over 50% at this point.

hi JVS,

its not my premise, Jack. its just what i've read here and there last night - i understand that CNN made the same conclusions (i generally don't watch televsion, i read about it though).

with so many delegate rich states still to come, it seems odd how i'm reading that Mr. Trump is now "inevitable", particularly since there seems to be a hard ceiling on his support.

- IGIT

 

[Jack V Savage]

hi JVS,

its not my premise, Jack. its just what i've read here and there last night - i understand that CNN made the same conclusions (i generally don't watch televsion, i read about it though).

with so many delegate rich states still to come, it seems odd how i'm reading that Mr. Trump is now "inevitable", particularly since there seems to be a hard ceiling on his support.

Whoever's premise it is (and I certainly haven't seen it from anyone in the media), it's false. The best guide to the state of the race is the betting odds, and they reflect a serious fight right now.

I don't think there's a "hard ceiling" on his support, either.

 

[IGIT]

There's really no logic to it, which why he just might win the nomination. Most people aren't very logical.

Meanwhile, the Democratic machine is doing it's best to make sure Shrillary gets the nomination by a landslide so that Bern's popular vote doesn't mean a thing.

hiya TeTe and well met,

it just seems early to call the GOP race over, yet i'm reading a slew of articles which seem to make that case. there are so many delegates at stake in March and April, afterall.

on the Democratic side, i still think it boils down to super Tuesday (where i think the campaign of Mr. Sanders is going to have a very grim day). Nevada itself means little...if it did, Mrs. Clinton would have been POTUS in 2008.

- IGIT

 

[HereticBD]

It amazes me that it's even a possibility.

 

[IGIT]

Whoever's premise it is (and I certainly haven't seen it from anyone in the media), it's false. The best guide to the state of the race is the betting odds, and they reflect a serious fight right now.

I don't think there's a "hard ceiling" on his support, either.

hi JVS,

Chait muses about it - he certainly sees Mr. Rubio's chances as dim, if he can't beat Trump in SC....Bruni over at the NYT also writes about it...David Graham seems to be answering his own questions in his "Is Trump Unstoppable" article in the Atlantic.

in terms of the Trump ceiling...he won NH with 35% of the vote. he didn't seem to get much of a bounce in SC, with what? 32%, right?

lets say that Mr. Cruz bleeds out a little in the coming months. where do you see his support going? i'm not asking for betting data from gambling sites, Jack, i'm asking for your own take on things.

- IGIT

 

[Jack V Savage]

hi JVS,

Chait muses about it - he certainly sees Mr. Rubio's chances as dim, if he can't beat Trump in SC....Bruni over at the NYT also writes about it...David Graham at the Atlantic seems to be answering his own questions in his "Is Trump Unstoppable" article in the Atlantic.

No one is saying that Trump is inevitable; just that it's looking good for him.

in terms of the Trump ceiling...he won NH with 35% of the vote. he didn't seem to get much of a bounce in SC, with what? 32%, right?

As Trump says, he's going to get some of the supporters of people who drop out. Because of his current strong position, he doesn't need anything close to half of the support of everyone who drops out.

lets say that Mr. Cruz bleeds out a little in the coming months. where do you see his support going? i'm not asking for betting data from gambling sites, Jack, i'm asking for your own take on things.

I have no particular knowledge about how this stuff works. My position consistently here has been extreme skepticism of any takes that aren't informed by demonstrably meaningful data--not just of WRers but even pundits. If you just want me to make a typical, meathead-style blind guess, I think that Trump gets more of Cruz's supporters than Rubio does.

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

hi JVS,

its not my premise, Jack. its just what i've read here and there last night - i understand that CNN made the same conclusions (i generally don't watch televsion, i read about it though).

with so many delegate rich states still to come, it seems odd how i'm reading that Mr. Trump is now "inevitable", particularly since there seems to be a hard ceiling on his support.

- IGIT

The conclusion is based on observing prior nomination processes. At this point, it would be historically unprecedented for Trump to lose. Is it logically possible? Certainly. Things would just have to go down in a way we've never seen.

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

I'm interested in alternative scenarios where Cruz or Rubio pulls out the W.

 

[scoopj]

hiya TeTe and well met,

it just seems early to call the GOP race over, yet i'm reading a slew of articles which seem to make that case. there are so many delegates at stake in March and April, afterall.

on the Democratic side, i still think it boils down to super Tuesday (where i think the campaign of Mr. Sanders is going to have a very grim day). Nevada itself means little...if it did, Mrs. Clinton would have been POTUS in 2008.

- IGIT

I love the "well met". And you don't overuse it either. Kudos to you.

On topic, anything can happen. Jack is right that the betting odds are the place to look.

 

[Frontschwein]

when will you people learn

YOU CANT STUMP THE TRUMP

FOOLISH GAUC BOWL MERCHANTS!!!!

 

[scoopj]

I'm not a trump supporter (far from it), but I might actually vote for him just for the lols.

 

[Fatt Hughes]

this time 4 years ago, Romney was considered by media and pundits as inevitable even after a Gingrich win in S.C. Trump wins N.H., S.C., yet his nomination is uncertain and "we still have a long way to go." Trump is up in Nevada,and is looking good heading into south. Had Rubio and or Bush accomplished this, it would be considered all but assured, and remaining also rans would be strongly encouraged to bow out in effort to have front runner concentrate on national campaign.

 

[PainIsLIfe]

False premise. Trump's odds are a little over 50% at this point.

But, yeah, Rubio will benefit a little from Bush's exit. Trump will get some of those (few) supporters, and Rubio will get a little more. Trump will probably get more of Carson's supporters. Rubio will get more of Kasich's supporters. Overall, it's a pretty even battle between Rubio and Trump, with Cruz still alive. Like 50-40-10.

Trump isn't getting any support from anyone dropping out - which is why he's trying to court Carson supporters now.

Rubio will get nearly all of Kasich's and Bush's supporters with a few going to Cruz. If Rubio were to drop out the majority of his supporters go to Cruz - as odd as that sounds and the rest go to the establishment candidate left in the race.

Those 3; without the rest, are actually more like 34 - 37 - 31

 

[Gervinho]

Trump isn't getting any support from anyone dropping out - which is why he's trying to court Carson supporters now.

Rubio will get nearly all of Kasich's and Bush's supporters with a few going to Cruz. If Rubio were to drop out the majority of his supporters go to Cruz - as odd as that sounds and the rest go to the establishment candidate left in the race.

Those 3; without the rest, are actually more like 34 - 37 - 31

The mistake you are making is by the time those people drop out. Trumps lead will be massive. He will win atleast 4 of the next 5 states and more than likely to take the 5th one as well. Carson and Kasich has to drop out now. even Cruz need to go and make this 2 man race to stop Trump

 

[Frontschwein]

Trump isn't getting any support from anyone dropping out - which is why he's trying to court Carson supporters now.

Rubio will get nearly all of Kasich's and Bush's supporters with a few going to Cruz. If Rubio were to drop out the majority of his supporters go to Cruz - as odd as that sounds and the rest go to the establishment candidate left in the race.

Those 3; without the rest, are actually more like 34 - 37 - 31

one of the other candidates will be his VP..out of everyone he gets along best with Rubio and Kasich. if rubio drops out his votes in the establishment lane arent going to anti establishment ted cruz. they will in fact go where the momentum is with populist trump when the rubber meets the road. trust me, i know teez tings

 

[Jack V Savage]

Trump isn't getting any support from anyone dropping out - which is why he's trying to court Carson supporters now.

Rubio will get nearly all of Kasich's and Bush's supporters with a few going to Cruz. If Rubio were to drop out the majority of his supporters go to Cruz - as odd as that sounds and the rest go to the establishment candidate left in the race.

Those 3; without the rest, are actually more like 34 - 37 - 31

There's zero chance it would be that extreme. Like I said, Rubio will get *most* of Bush's supporters, but Trump will certainly get some. And so on. There's a reason he's the favorite.

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

There's zero chance it would be that extreme. Like I said, Rubio will get *most* of Bush's supporters, but Trump will certainly get some. And so on. There's a reason he's the favorite.

Polls I've seen show a pretty even split of Bush votes going to Cruz, Rubio, and Trump. Within a few percent.

Take a look at the last Florida polls, Trump was crushing Rubio and Bush by 20+ points. Old data, but if Rubio can't even win Florida, he's screwed.