Why is Ortega an underdog to Zabit?

[Jack Stevonovich]

I'm a fan of both fighters. Rooting for Zabit, but I'm leaning Ortega as far as a pick/prediction. Zabit enjoys scrambles far too much for this stylistic match-up. Ortega catches him near the end of round 1 or early round 2.

Zabit shows both flashes of brilliance and a reckless arrogance (in terms of fight IQ) that will ultimately be his downfall in this fight and future bouts as well.

The cleaner and more technical he becomes the more longevity it will add to his career. As much as I like the guy he seems like he could go off the rails with how reckless he fights.

I think Zabit can win it but it is going to depend on if he fights a 3 round point fight or not. I think he get's arrogant tries to manhandle Ortega and gets caught. Then again that might be a round four victory that never comes.

 

[sampuncher]

When are these 2 fighting by the way?

 

[xhaydenx]

I see Ortega winning pretty easily. Zabit looked fine against crap competition, but he wasn't blowing through them. Stephens on the other hand, was a great win, but he didn't look like some world-beater during that fight.

 

[sampuncher]

I see Ortega winning pretty easily. Zabit looked fine against crap competition, but he wasn't blowing through them. Stephens on the other hand, was a great win, but he didn't look like some world-beater during that fight.

He didn't even win every round against Stephens either. I do want to eventually see Zabit and Max though still.

 

[corrupted]

I'd say the bookies have it right. Unless Ortega can get Zabit down and dominate him early, the guy just has too much for him. Should be a great fight ... But I'm going with easy UD for Zabit

 

[catnap]

Tough fight to call, Zabit will definitely have his hands full.

 

[burningspear]

Ortega was partially exposed by Max, his striking and particularly his defence is sub par.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Because it's 3 rounds. Zabit won't lose until he gets in a 5 rounder

Exactly. Ortega can really only sub him and Zabit is a phenomenal grappler, so it is unlikely to happen. Ortega's height and reach advantages are gone vs Dagestan Abe Lincoln too.

 

[VVarhead]

In a 3-rounder Zabit is rightfully the favorite.
5 rounds, I dunno.

Ortega has trouble taking people down. He gets most of his takedowns in the clinch. If you stay on your bike like Max did you won't be in danger of a sub.
Zabit's gameplan should be moving and circling like crazy, but his ego will probably force him to grapple/clinch with Ortega as he is excellent there aswell.

Great fight.

 

[cheesus]

Zabit, dude is the future brahs.

 

[Ideanudge]

Jeremy had him figured out by the end of round 3, plus Ortega can be aggressive with his striking because if Zabit takes him down it's what Ortega wants. Zabit will have to stand and Ortega can throw wild

Zabit was outstriking and willingly staying in exchanges and getting better of Stephans in the 3rd round.

 

[Clear Winner]

All I know is that if Zabit fades in the last round like he did last time, Ortega's coming for that neck.

 

[Marco_mma]

What? Really?
My bucks on ortega easy.



(My shit euro in reality)

 

[IloveTHIS]

Some people never bounce back from the kind of beating Ortega just received. He might never be the same mentally or physically.

And Zabit is just better

 

[ApplesVild]

Zabit was outstriking and willingly staying in exchanges and getting better of Stephans in the 3rd round.

Stephens started landing a lot more frequently by the end if round three and was starting to pressure Zabit.

Zabit also lacks high level experience, where Ortage has fought some of the best in the division and only lost to one of them

 

[GBJohn]

Cub is a different style of striker but he does have good boxing and Brian did grrat against him. As for Moicano I really don't see him as someone who uses his striking to get it to mat. He is a stand up fighter his main weapon is his boxing and foot work. Ortega went toe to toe with him boxing... And won the fight.

Zabit beat Stephens but a lot of people beat Stephes.

If I recall, Ortega went toe to toe with Moicano and got pieced up until Moicano inexplicably decided to go for a take down in round three and got guillotined. That's one of the fights where Ortega was losing until he won, but if Moicano doesn't have that epic brain fart, he wins, 30-27.

 

[Blaster007]

Do you think the odds are correct or will this fight be closer than the odds reflect?

I imagine it should be a pick'em at least, maybe even Ortega as a favourite

Yeah

 

[ApplesVild]

If I recall, Ortega went toe to toe with Moicano and got pieced up until Moicano inexplicably decided to go for a take down in round three and got guillotined. That's one of the fights where Ortega was losing until he won, but if Moicano doesn't have that epic brain fart, he wins, 30-27.

You recall incorrectly, it was very close on the feet. Moicano probably did get the get the better of it but Ortega busted his nose up, he never took a back step or looked out of place boxing with Moicano at all.

Zabit has good scrambles and an interesting ground game, but who is he showing it against, who's the best grappler or submission guy he's faced in the UFC?

 

[bambammccoy]

If Ortega decides to get wild with the striking, I’m not sure that will help him. Zabit has shown that he can stay patient, work at outside range, & just play matador using good footwork.

And though I would favor Ortega in the jiujitsu, Zabit is no pushover on the ground either. Brian might not get the sub even if he does get a takedown.

I agree Zabit tends to fade in the 3rd though. That is Ortega’s biggest chance. It’s just not necessarily a very reliable one... how many times can a guy pull a rabbit out of the hat?

In reference to how many times can Ortega pull a come from behind sub, its almost part of his gameplan.

Crowding and pressuring lesser grapplers to make them clinch up or shoot a lazy shot to keep themselves out of a disadvantageous striking position in close quarters. Similar to Ronda crowding and pressuring Holly and when Holly didn't immediately identify another angle to escape on she was forced to shoot a shot luckily for holly it all worked out. Usually for Ortega it takes a couple rounds to get his man tired to get them to shoot.

Basically what im saying is it isnt just Oretga waiting for a shot with his fingers crossed.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Cause Zabit has better wrestling and striking than Ortega so it's not likely that Ortega can take him down.

Ortega is generally also losing most of his fights till he gets the submission or KO and there's only so much damage you can take before you can't expect him to pull off the comeback.