So first of all I think that Conor has all the talent in the world and could beat Aldo if he fought a smart fight, and maybe he will who knows. Lately however he seems to be getting exceptionally cocky with his abilities. Siver should have never landed that many strikes on Conor but he did? Why? because Conor appeared to have no respect for Siver abilities. Perhaps that's because he was so heavily favored to win or perhaps he is believing to heavily into his own hype. If this trend continues and I think it will until he loses he will not get past Aldo, barring a bit of luck of course. For Conor to beat Aldo he needs to focus on avoiding Aldo's leg kicks. Since Aldo is primarily an orthodox fighter and Conor is a south paw fighter Aldo will have to either switch stances to land with power, go for the inside leg kick (Conor is not as vulnerable to this one), or land on Conor's rear leg (which means getting in close and walking through punching range and entering into knee range). My guess is that Aldo will come forward with punches and let his stance switch during this process. Conor has that narrow stance and needs lots of time to actually put up a shin to block the incoming kick and will probably be unable to do so against Aldo. To avoid this kick I think Conor should circle towards Aldo's power side (what did I say!) when he starts to punch, this in itself is very dangerous but the danger can be reduced if you are aware its there (keep your left shoulder and hand high and tight to your head and be ready to slip and fade right hands, block power kicks ect) and have Conor's excellent reflexes. If Conor can nullify those kicks and that's a big if because Aldo will start to play on that movement he may have a chance as I think his boxing is as good as Aldo's, maybe better. For Aldo to have a chance he needs to land those kicks or time Conor's movements in avoiding them and land something else, like a head kick that Conor circles into. Aldo can and will hit Conor with punches to the head unless Conor shows more respect for Aldo's punching prowess than he did Siver's. If Conor puts a higher priority on avoiding head punches against Aldo and drops some of the flashy kicks that may make him easier to counter than I could see Aldo struggle to land clean and frequent shots on the Irishman and that's why I think Aldo should come prepared to work the body. Generally speaking when someone is moving their head a lot (slipping, fading punches ect) the body is an easier and larger target to attack. To me the body work and the leg kicks is all Aldo needs to win this but the jab is also going to play into this if Conor is cocky and leaving himself open like he has his last few fights. Anyway that's my little break down of the fight. I pick Aldo as he has shown his ability to game plan and Conor appears to be getting a little cocky.