Why almost everyone thinks that Francis will beat Jones?

Lets be honest if Jon gets the top position Stipe got, he could easily finish the fight.
But that rests on your confidence in Jon getting to that position. Stipe is significantly stronger, and Jones couldn't even secure his single takedown attempt against Thiago. Maybe we're wrong and Jon does still have his offensive wrestling of yesteryear, but we haven't seen anything to prove that recently
 
You pretty much have to fight the perfect fight against Ngannou to beat him. His chin is iron and he hits with so much destructive force behind shots that appear to be nothing, such as the Cain ko.

Stipe would need to mix up his punches and takedowns again, but Francis is smarter now about conserving his energy.

I don’t like stipes chances, but maybe Stipe has been working on his submissions? If he gets top position again in a rematch he has to go for the kill.
If I were to draw up a gameplan, I'd emphasize getting into round 2 first and foremost. Body work would be key, but with kicks as opposed to punches. Don't wanna lower your head into him to get those shots off.
Somewhere in rds. 2-4, look to get him down and work on a choke. The longer it goes the greater the chances of getting starched. But you can't go for it right away or you'll end up the way Blaydes and Cain went.

Ngannous composure is the difference. Getting him to go for broke is gonna be a fool's errand going forward, bc A.) Even if he is going all out, he likely devastates you anyhow, and B.) If you're forcing him to attack, you're lining yourself up for one of his hookercuts in the process.

Roundhouse kicks to the liver, with a high guard as you work the perimeter of the octagon.
 
Francis should train low kicks for a month then kick Jones chicken leg into the bleachers
 
Stipe has much better boxing than Jones and better head moment in the pocket. Ngannou has also gotten much better and his TDD and cardio are very underrated. Jones' style is size dependent, when he fights someone of similar height and reach he loses rounds way more often than when he's much taller with a big reach advantage. I think Jones would have a very hard time taking Ngannou down and would get KOed.
This. Bones uses his frame to control the leverage when he's not kicking you to pieces from a safe distance. Francis likely nullifies those advantages. Bones has never needed crisp boxing or exceptional head movement the way he'd need it in this scenario. If thiago could tax him at will on a shredded knee, you'd have to think ngannou could time him flush at some point.

Maybe bones would survive and go on to take control, but it's just as likely he folds at the waist as a result of his habit of "casually leaning off/away" like he often does.
 
That's a tough fight for Jon for a few reasons. He doesnt have the power to stop Ngannou standing so he'd likely be in for a full 5 round fight giving Francis lots of opportunities. Taking Francis down is not an easy task either Jon would likely be forced to spend a lot of time standing. Francis doesn't necessarily have to land a punch on Jon to end the fight as Jon's chickenlegs won't be able to withstand too many legkicks. Jon can still win but not without fighting practically flawless.
 
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- Stipe took shots from Francis and never went down
- DC landed on stipe and knocked him out. DC landed on jon many times and never phased him
- Jon is a better wrestler than Stipe

Still... its a tough fight for jon. Fighting someone with that much power and just as tall with the same reach. Ngannou leg kick might lead to an amputation.

Jon would either get KO'd round 1-2. Or outwrestle francis and grind him out like Stipe did.
 
Keep in mind that Stipe actually went and did amateur boxing to work on his hands. He actually has good boxing skills. Jones, not so much. Stipe was able to avoid getting hit clean for 25 minutes because he can box. I don't think Jones would be able to do that. I also don't think he'd be able to muscle Ngannou around and get him to the ground right away. He would be in much more danger than Stipe was because they don't have the same skill set.

COULD he beat Ngannou? Sure. Do I see it happening? No. Styles make fights. Jones relies heavily on his reach and height advantages in his fights. He would have neither against Ngannou. If Ngannou touches him once, the fight could be over.
If Jones was hesitant to get close to Santos because of Santos' power, I don't see him getting within 10 feet of Ng.
 
Because Jones loses some of his physical attributes and Ngannou has reach and striking that is his bread and butter. It's a complicated fight for Jones. There is a reason he isn't going up in weight and he and his camp know the reason, we can only speculate. I don't care if he makes 205 easily, so what?
 
I've been a fan of Jones (in the ring, not out), but his last 2 fights have frankly been crap, especially the Santos fight. He was scared out of his wits to engage a blown up middle weight on 1 leg. So, he might literally run in circles trying to stay away from Ngannou. He has turned into the overly cautious, boring point fighter as of late, and frankly has become one of the most boring fighters this side of Woodley
 
Yes he will beat Jones.
But fight will never happen.
Even years ago when Jon was supposed to move up and fight Cain, never happened.
Jon's shook at all HWs.
 
But that rests on your confidence in Jon getting to that position. Stipe is significantly stronger, and Jones couldn't even secure his single takedown attempt against Thiago. Maybe we're wrong and Jon does still have his offensive wrestling of yesteryear, but we haven't seen anything to prove that recently
You serious? He just took down and finished Gus on December 28, 2018. Oh wait you're going to just say Gus was washed up, yeah sure like LHW has guys much better.

Jon can beat Ngannou standing as well, he can turn it into a staring content like Derrick Lewis did and point fight him to a decision.
 
I don’t think he would. I see Jon taking him down and owning him
 
- Stipe took shots from Francis and never went down
- DC landed on stipe and knocked him out. DC landed on jon many times and never phased him
- Jon is a better wrestler than Stipe

Still... its a tough fight for jon. Fighting someone with that much power and just as tall with the same reach. Ngannou leg kick might lead to an amputation.

Jon would either get KO'd round 1-2. Or outwrestle francis and grind him out like Stipe did.

DC is much better at HW, he weights more and hits much harder. Stipe has better boxing and head movement than Jones. I agree with most of the other stuff you said though.
 
You serious? He just took down and finished Gus on December 28, 2018. Oh wait you're going to just say Gus was washed up, yeah sure like LHW has guys much better.

Jon can beat Ngannou standing as well, he can turn it into a staring content like Derrick Lewis did and point fight him to a decision.
Gus had a hematoma the size of a tennis ball courtesy of a Jon Jones knee to the groin, that hardly proves anything
 
Similar height, similar reach can drop you with a glancing shot
The question will come down to if Jones can take Francis down and keep him down
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones’s walking weight is in the mid to high 220lbs. He will definitely be at a strength disadvantage at HW. His skills and speed should nullify that gap, but his reflexes will deteriorate with age. I wouldn’t wait too long to move up if he plans on doing it.
If Jones wants to properly transition to HW, I believe vacating his LHW title is the way to go. He should take 8-10 months off to put on the extra muscle mass in a professional manner.
I’ve said many times that some (not all) of the reasons Jones is so successful at LHW is because of his physical attributes. Most of the times, he is the taller, bigger, stronger and lengthier fighter at 205lbs. Add a very good skillset on top of that, you got a very difficult puzzle to solve. At HW, Jones won’t have those physical advantages. HW fighters are used to fighting big 6ft4+ men with one punch KO power, Jones doesn’t possess that. His reach and defensive frame won’t be as effective against the taller, lengthier fighters at HW.
 
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I’m one of those guys who think Jones should be banned from all sports and driving and parties, but I keep it real! Stipe who doesn’t have the best chin showed exactly how to defeat Francis and took big shots doing it! Jones hadn’t been even Rocked and obviously has a very high fight IQ, so why do you naysayers think he won’t implement a good game plan for the monster and take him down or even finish him with same kind of kick that made DC cry in public?

it cause jon would get his head knowed off.
 
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