Who's going to win? Jones: 65%, DC: 35%

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by RafailNadull, Jan 2, 2015.

  1. RafailNadull

    RafailNadull Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2011
    Messages:
    3,547
    Likes Received:
    14
    Is what the bookmaker odds imply. Their track record of prediction is much better than that of any sherdogger or "experts".

    If you disagree with those chances, for instance, if you think DC is going to win..

    1) Bet the house on DC
    2) Explain why you're right
    3) Prepare to be called irrational
     
  2. doomy200

    doomy200 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    3,885
    Likes Received:
    165
    Don't tell me what to do.
     
  3. JRodMike

    JRodMike Orange Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2014
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    110
    What were the silva Weidman odds?
     
  4. INoHespectChael

    INoHespectChael Black Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2013
    Messages:
    7,264
    Likes Received:
    8,578
    I take it TS bet the house on jones? Post the ticket please.
     
  5. TdotK

    TdotK Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2014
    Messages:
    2,069
    Likes Received:
    11
    What were the Dillashaw/Barao odds?
     
  6. Diggem

    Diggem Black Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2014
    Messages:
    6,282
    Likes Received:
    1,897
    If Anderson looks good against Diaz the odds will still be in his favor. :D
     
  7. Miiiiiiighty

    Miiiiiiighty Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    14,825
    Likes Received:
    2,754
    Location:
    France
    Thought exactly the same when reading the OP
     
  8. HydralisK

    HydralisK EST19XX

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2012
    Messages:
    8,503
    Likes Received:
    2,802
    Location:
    South Carolina
    DC by throwing Jones out of the cage for a TKO. Oh wait that would probably be a DQ for DC. Oh well the fans would know. Matt Hamill redemption.
     
  9. prikoke

    prikoke Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2008
    Messages:
    4,533
    Likes Received:
    886
    Seems about right. DC has a decent chance to win this, but let's not act like he should be the favorite against the current LHW GOAT in his prime.
     
  10. wartor

    wartor Thug #22 Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2010
    Messages:
    4,794
    Likes Received:
    2,442
    Odds are not the future, it's just a guess.
     
  11. Da Speeit

    Da Speeit CANCEROUS POSTER Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2010
    Messages:
    76,183
    Likes Received:
    35,301
    Location:
    In bed with your bitch, watching game of thrones,
    If you think there's anything rational about a fist fight, you're fucking high.
    Plus, oddsmakers don't really care who they think will win, but rather where they think the person placing their money will win.

    I've gotten teams at +220 at smaller sports book and they've been -250 at a busier sports book.

    Odds shift, change and update.

    Were those the updated odds or the current odds?
     
  12. mmass

    mmass Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2010
    Messages:
    408
    Likes Received:
    21
    The bookmakers (I work for a big one) will receive advice from experts. MMA is usually a small market but it's likely. Also depends on where the money is flowing. These odds seem reasonable.
     
  13. Sharingan

    Sharingan Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2009
    Messages:
    583
    Likes Received:
    71
    The bookmaker knows just about as much as you do in terms of "pre-fight information."

    When the fight actually happens though, anything can happen. GSP lost to Matt Serra by TKO.

    The bookmaker plays for the run long, that is thousands and millions of bets. In the short run, you can still bet on the underdog and win here and there.
     
  14. MilesAbove

    MilesAbove Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2013
    Messages:
    21,045
    Likes Received:
    6,978
    Champion's get the majority of decisions. Jones can play the long game. Jones has considerable reach. Bookies need more people to bet on DC so the line moves.

    In all honesty this is a -135 at best for Jones. But so many people put their money on him that it moves the line.
     
  15. Diggem

    Diggem Black Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2014
    Messages:
    6,282
    Likes Received:
    1,897
    The fact that bookmakers don't give one fuq about what dudes around here blab on about popularity,supposedly fake stuff,petty threads and who they would LIKE to be champ is just reality.

    They know Jones is one bad dude and is going to wreck Cormier.
     
  16. BangWhosNxt

    BangWhosNxt Purple Belt

    Joined:
    May 19, 2005
    Messages:
    2,312
    Likes Received:
    167
    Location:
    5th Dimension
    I just had a thought; what if DC slams Jones so hard that his head gets stuck in the canvas?
     
  17. Raphael

    Raphael Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2009
    Messages:
    842
    Likes Received:
    199
    There odds are based on collective thinking, i.e. the gambling mans collective thinking.
     
  18. Jesse James

    Jesse James Chastity Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2007
    Messages:
    10,391
    Likes Received:
    716
    Location:
    3rd Planet from the Sun
    Well the Poll of Pros has Cormier over Jones.....20 to 11.....I think Cormier will win also...but it's MMA, anything can happen...I mean an errant eyepoke could change the game....
     
  19. estranged

    estranged Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2014
    Messages:
    4,500
    Likes Received:
    5,394
    should br 50/50
     
  20. blingking

    blingking Brown Belt

    Joined:
    May 20, 2011
    Messages:
    2,590
    Likes Received:
    1,252
    Good god. Bookmakers dont care about what the actual result of the fight is, their goal is to set a line which receives equal action on both favorite and underdog (this means an equal payout not equal amount of money paid). Then they have guaranteed profit.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.