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Usually, the better fighter wins. Sometimes, the worse fighter gets lucky, which is not the same as random chance (for example, if he closed his eyes and started winging hooks, he would not, 1 in a million times, get lucky and knock the other guy out unless he was ALSO doing that).
Often, what is considered "reading" an opponent is just making an educated guess about what they're going to do. If it works, you're a genius. If not, you're an idiot. What if Hunt HADN'T sprawled when Werdum faked that shot into a knee? Werdum didn't know Hunt would do that, he didn't make Hunt, he set up a condition where that was a likely outcome and it paid off, but there's always the chance Hunt wouldn't bite on it.
Often, what is considered "reading" an opponent is just making an educated guess about what they're going to do. If it works, you're a genius. If not, you're an idiot. What if Hunt HADN'T sprawled when Werdum faked that shot into a knee? Werdum didn't know Hunt would do that, he didn't make Hunt, he set up a condition where that was a likely outcome and it paid off, but there's always the chance Hunt wouldn't bite on it.