Do you think that better international scouting would be a way around this?
I think in black and white - the UFC is undeniably counting on cheap labor from expansion countries. Without debating the merits of that game plan, suffice to say I think its already well ensconced in their current business practice.
There are plenty of countries in which being a huge athlete is less lucrative because of the sports they value. In countries that don't have sports like American Football and Rugby, a guy that is 6-4 and 240 might naturally gravitate towards combat sports. In a lto of these countries the pay be more attractive two. There are quite a few countries in Eastern Europe that aren't on the euro and for them the chances of getting 20-30k per fight might be more attractive. A lto of these countries have great bases in various martial arts too.
There are a lot of elements in the equation, but I believe you have to factor where young talent is fostered. It requires both start-up capital and reasonable future opportunity. You need to land in an elite camp to be prepared for elite level MMA.
To get more to the the original point of the post, do you see an improvement on the horizon? Do you think the money will improve enough to solve the problem? Or do you see HW continuing to be a sub-par division?
I'm not really sure. The UFC PPV buyrate and TV ratings are through the floor (in the last year aggregate, not the few spikes on the chart) They seem to be marching forward with a massively busy schedule and sky high PPV prices. A 30% drop in EBITA and lowered credit rating shouldn't spell 'more of the same' but that seems to be the case - doubling down on the current model.
You cannot image how many absolute studs like Cain and Cormier are working 30-50k a year jobs as gym teachers. Consider that 8 new All-American heavyweights graduate each year. The UFC can't seem to attract these guys into an already thin, aging division because the value proposition is not good.
The handful of guys at the absolute top of MMA make real money. Everyone else essentially risks health for peanuts. I honestly do believe making a more reasonable pay structure at the bottom would radically change the quality of athletes we see in all divisions, but especially heavyweight.
I don't see any indication that this is what the UFC will do - their most recent radical idea was to book a 0-0-0 entertainer who's never fought in any combat sport, nearing 40, with multiple injuries. I cannot imagine what size check that took, but long term for the sport I wish they spent that money elsewhere.