In terms of percentage? In case you don't know how it works mathematically, just multiply the two together. So if you give him 50% chance against both Gus and Cormier then (0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25) he has a 25% chance to beat both. I honestly think he has around a 10% chance to beat both. In other words I have never been as certain about anything in the LHW title picture that Jones will LOSE the belt within two fights since I was certain that Jones would WIN against Sonnen (95%). Just curious what the rest of the board thinks, JJ fans and neutral people included. CAVEAT: I am a fan of both Gus and DC as you can tell.
Still wonder what Cormier thinks he's going to do when he can't bully his opponent with his wrestling. Worked out for him so far though..
If cormier can take down barnett in impressive fashion, ragdolling bones will be easy. I honestly give jones like a 5% chance of beating D.C 50% chance of beating gustaffson though.
Lets not get over excited about dc's wrestling. Let's remember, rampage jackson out wrestled Henderson. That's right, rampage 'I can't wrestle to save my life" jackson. Jake Shields out wrestled henderson for 4 rounds. Fact is, henderson has average to below average mma wrestling. Anyone who think dc will rag doll jones like that is delusional.
40% chance he'll beat Alex. Alex has champion confidence now and the experience to go along with it. If it's true Jon was only "70%" (despite "breaking records" in camp and wanting to box the Klitschkos) it will be a good fight. If it's not true and that one haymaker is what saves him on his best night it will not be a good fight (I'm leaning towards 20% in that case). 60% chance he'll beat Cormier. DC is a strong guy but he doesn't have a ton of subs and he's not crushing guys with his gnp. Landing a TD on Jones with the speed he gets the underhooks and the distance he maintains is completely different than landing it on Josh Barnett or Hendo as well. He also didn't look to have a massive speed advantage on Hendo but was working at about the same speed as Shogun, so he's not gonna have an easy times landing and avoiding shots either. All in all 24% then.
Gus has a much better chance to beat JJ than DC does. DC's last couple of performances have not been that impressive. He man-handled a barista and took almost the entire 15 minutes to defeat 43yr old sans-TRT Henderson. DC is good, but I feel like he's being over-hyped a bit. Also, when he makes stupid comments like, "If I want to take Jon Jones down 100x then he's getting taken down 100x." make him insufferable. Hopefully the UFC will give him a #1 contender match so I can watch him absorb a loss.
Thank you for the confidence boost. I just learned today I have a 50% chance to defeat the entire UFC roster in a cage. Because either I do... or I don't. 50/50. Careful equating 2007 Rampage to 2011 Rampage. And 2007 LHW Hendo to 2010 MW Hendo. Or equating either through MMAth to 2014 DC. DC has both the MMA credentials and on-paper credentials to out-wrestle JJ IMO. But we'll see.
That's what I love about the sport... the qualities that align to make a match. I think Gus is a huge threat because he has the TDD to exploit holes in his striking defense whereas I think DC is a huge threat because he has the TDs to exploit holes in his game off his back (or at least shine a light on a game we never got to see or show that DC on top > JJ from the bottom). JJ has a tall order in front of him regardless of how you look at it.
