What "against the odds" fight were you the most certain about?

Kanemura

Kanemura

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Have you ever watched a fight where the odds heavily favoured one fighter, yet you just felt completely sure that the other guy or girl would win - and they did?

For me I didn't for a second think Robbie Lawler would beat Tyrone Woodley. Not that it was an impossible task, I just couldn't picture it.

Have you had a fight like this - where you just felt like the underdog would win?
 
Edgar vs Penn 2. Most people thought the first fight was a fluke/robbery and I think the betting odds favored Penn. Also Edgar/Maynard 3. Woodley against Lawler and Weidman against Silva.

McGregor vs. Aldo and McGregor vs. Diaz 2. In fact I thought Diaz would beat McGregor in the first fight.

In general I don't predict huge upsets though, just slight ones in which the odds are close and people are only picking the favorite because they've been the champ longer or they performed well in the first fight of a rematch.

My most proud one would probably be Dillashaw vs. Barao. I wasn't sure if he would win, but I knew he had a very good chance. Dillashaw looked amazing in his wins before the title shot, super quick and with powerful, diverse striking. He really did look like a champ and didn't deserve to be so overlooked.
 
Frank Edgar said:
Edgar vs Penn 2. Most people thought the first fight was a fluke/robbery and I think the betting odds favored Penn. Also Edgar/Maynard 3. Woodley against Lawler and Weidman against Silva.

McGregor vs. Aldo and McGregor vs. Diaz 2. In fact I thought Diaz would beat McGregor in the first fight.

In general I don't predict huge upsets though, just slight ones in which the odds are close and people are only picking the favorite because they've been the champ longer or they performed well in the first fight of a rematch.

My most proud one would probably be Dillashaw vs. Barao. I wasn't sure if he would win, but I knew he had a very good chance. Dillashaw looked amazing in his wins before the title shot, super quick and with powerful, diverse striking. He really did look like a champ and didn't deserve to be so overlooked.
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I see. I'm not thinking so much about predicting upsets for the heck of it but more like when you just have that strong feeling about one fighter winning. But I'm with you on Diaz/McGregor 2, I did not think Diaz would win there (and I made a very small sum of money on it)
 
This year:

Miocic over Werdum
Eddie over RDA
Nunes over Tate
Woodley over Lawler
Larkin over Magny
 
Caraway - Sterling.

I thought Sterling's stand up is atrocious. Just weak and flashy kicks.

Caraway's ground game was good enough to fend off Aljo....and on the feet he would dominate Sterling.
 
even though frankie was the favorite in both mendes and cub fights they we're close but i was just sure that he would run through them both.
 
Nick Diaz vs Gomi. +300 underdog, bet 100 bucks, and won 300.
 
Weidman Silva 162. So sure I spent my life savings to fly across the world to watch it live.
 
Poirier vs Duffy

Still cant believe Dustin was an underdog for that fight. The power of hype.

Also Weidman vs Rockhold. I never thought Weidman had a realistic chance.
 
Not a massive upset but by bookies standards it was... Gastelum over Hendericks. Jonny looks borderline dead since USADA plus his bull shit weight cuts I just knew Gastelum was going to take it.

Again not sure if it was a massive upset but I put money on Bisping to TKO Cung Le in round 4 and we know what happened.

Conor vs pretty much everyone he wasn't supposed to beat, but I honestly thought Aldo was tailor made for him and knew he was going to hurt him fast.

As someone else mentioned above Stipe over Werdum seemed like easy money. Goes the same way if not easier in a rematch. Probably a few others I can't remember now as well.
 
Kanemura said:
Have you ever watched a fight where the odds heavily favoured one fighter, yet you just felt completely sure that the other guy or girl would win - and they did?

For me I didn't for a second think Robbie Lawler would beat Tyrone Woodley. Not that it was an impossible task, I just couldn't picture it.

Have you had a fight like this - where you just felt like the underdog would win?
Click to expand...
I was the same with the Lawler/Woodley fight.
I laid a bet down for Krylov/Hamilton and Ellenberger all to win by T/KO, and was so close to adding Woodley to win by KO, but just didn't want to jinx one of my favorite fighters in Robbie, so I didn't. Would have made a mint had I, I think Woodley was around 12-1 to win by KO

Hendricks vs Fitch was one, I bet on Hendricks round one KO, 12 seconds into the fight I was minted!
 
Frank Edgar said:
Edgar vs Penn 2. Most people thought the first fight was a fluke/robbery and I think the betting odds favored Penn. Also Edgar/Maynard 3. Woodley against Lawler and Weidman against Silva.

McGregor vs. Aldo and McGregor vs. Diaz 2. In fact I thought Diaz would beat McGregor in the first fight.

In general I don't predict huge upsets though, just slight ones in which the odds are close and people are only picking the favorite because they've been the champ longer or they performed well in the first fight of a rematch.

My most proud one would probably be Dillashaw vs. Barao. I wasn't sure if he would win, but I knew he had a very good chance. Dillashaw looked amazing in his wins before the title shot, super quick and with powerful, diverse striking. He really did look like a champ and didn't deserve to be so overlooked.
Click to expand...

That was being written off as a gimme fight for Barao by almost everyone. I was confident in Barao but people were acting like it was Cruz Faber 3 or something.
 
UFC 196. Tate and Diaz over Holm and Macgregor. I think Miesha paid 4.5:1. Nate also paid better than 2:1
 
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