War Room Lounge v74: Enjoy your whiskey tide pods

[Social Distance Warrior]

I liked Rip, but this "free ripskater" shit is so cringy

not as cringey as banning him for no fu*king reason

FREE RIPSKATER!!!
@Hognoxious
@SIRGAY HARITONOB!

 

[Trotsky]

I liked Rip, but this "free ripskater" shit is so cringy

It's most so because we now know he was a troll. He was ostensibly making fun of them and they're still pining for the act.

I wish the whole lot of them would get banned. Not like any of them bring anything insightful or even entertaining to the table.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

It was very one sided, but incredibly entertanining...one of my favorite TNF experiences was RJJ vs Pazienza

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Radar and communication systems specifically use uncertainty to work. If I design a portfolio of stocks and bonds, I don't know what the stock/bond market is going to do, but I have some idea of the variance of the stock market, its trend, its skewness and kurtosis and I have constraints provided by the customer, but I am still quite uncertain what is going to happen once I push play. Even if I find some sort of a cointegration, that might collapse at any moment.

The entire field of robust engineering works under uncertainty. This is not the same as a contingency: that would be worst case, which is a way of implementing a system robustly, but the field has moved well beyond that point because worst case systems suck. Allowing for uncertainty gives way better performance subject to probabilistic bounds on things like failure etc.

You solve for sequencing, POL and relays before you deploy (ie communication) -- thats the point. You dont launch something without having the uncertainty of variables you can control accounted for. You would have abysmal deployment rates. What you cant control you deal with as uncertainty -- but contingency plans are always included.

 

[Andy Capp]

Matlab is a scientific computing language -- it cant execute if an array is off -- thats how it relates to the riddle.Using math as relation to word riddles is a faulty comparison -- as the purpose is to any equation/formula/answer is to make it as elegant as possible.

I don't know why you say this like you're making a point, since that was precisely my point in saying your objection was faulty.

Again, wise is a nebulous term that can be unrelated to logic or intelligence. Thats the point,take as much uncertainty you can out before delivering a definitive answer. The "Blue eyes" riddle does a good job of eliminating as much uncertainty while delivering a challenging puzzle.

Captain Pedantic wants to jump in here but I'll spare you and just say that's pretty much the definition of wise. Within the context of the problem it's no different from "They are all perfect logicians -- if a conclusion can be logically deduced, they will do it instantly." To argue otherwise is grating pedantry of an undesirable sort. Back in the D&D days we called such reasoning rules lawyering.

A group of people with assorted eye colors live on an island. They are all perfect logicians -- if a conclusion can be logically deduced, they will do it instantly. No one knows the color of their eyes. Every night at midnight, a ferry stops at the island. Any islanders who have figured out the color of their own eyes then leave the island, and the rest stay. Everyone can see everyone else at all times and keeps a count of the number of people they see with each eye color (excluding themselves), but they cannot otherwise communicate. Everyone on the island knows all the rules in this paragraph.

On this island there are 100 blue-eyed people, 100 brown-eyed people, and the Guru (she happens to have green eyes). So any given blue-eyed person can see 100 people with brown eyes and 99 people with blue eyes (and one with green), but that does not tell him his own eye color; as far as he knows the totals could be 101 brown and 99 blue. Or 100 brown, 99 blue, and he could have red eyes.

The Guru is allowed to speak once (let's say at noon), on one day in all their endless years on the island. Standing before the islanders, she says the following:

"I can see someone who has blue eyes."

Who leaves the island, and on what night?


There are no mirrors or reflecting surfaces, nothing dumb. It is not a trick question, and the answer is logical. It doesn't depend on tricky wording or anyone lying or guessing, and it doesn't involve people doing something silly like creating a sign language or doing genetics. The Guru is not making eye contact with anyone in particular; she's simply saying "I count at least one blue-eyed person on this island who isn't me."

And lastly, the answer is not "no one leaves."

I grant this is an interesting problem. I feel like I have encountered it before and that is an impediment, believe it or not. I will let it percolate.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I liked Rip, but this "free ripskater" shit is so cringy

are you getting dm's?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I don't know why you say this like you're making a point, since that was precisely my point in saying your objection was faulty.

You thought matlab was something way off -- im showing why a matlab developer would want aqs much detail in their sequencing

Captain Pedantic wants to jump in here but I'll spare you and just say that's pretty much the definition of wise. Within the context of the problem it's no different from "They are all perfect logicians -- if a conclusion can be logically deduced, they will do it instantly." To argue otherwise is grating pedantry of an undesirable sort. Back in the D&D days we called such reasoning rules lawyering.

Ok, but they are aiding in eliminating the need to question the question. And wise does not automatically mean intelligent or compatible with logic -- alot of people are wise, alot of those same people cant work an input button on their tv.

grant this is an interesting problem. I feel like I have encountered it before and that is an impediment, believe it or not. I will let it percolate.

Drink your prune juice and let it percolate.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

are you getting dm's?

I"ve received a few. and they are all in good taste, and help to debunk some of the half truths and blatant lies spoken about the circumstances surrounding Rip's banning.

One thing that is really weird is that there are countless of posters, FAR WORSE ones who have been allowed back.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Maybe in the future

It's not yet fully public. Still under construction.

This is a great city for interviewing engineers though. I've got 4 lined up after this weekend, each with a very different perspective. Start-up guys, outdoorsman, real estate managers, etc.

A ton of sustainable energy guys and self driving automobile engineers -- would make for a good future show.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I"ve received a few. and they are all in good taste, and help to debunk some of the half truths and blatant lies spoken about the circumstances surrounding Rip's banning.

One thing that is really weird is that there are countless of posters, FAR WORSE ones who have been allowed back.

Probably should just teach rip how to change his IP

 

[JDragon]

Matlab is a scientific computing language -- it cant execute if an array is off -- thats how it relates to the riddle.Using math as relation to word riddles is a faulty comparison -- as the purpose is to any equation/formula/answer is to make it as elegant as possible.

Again, wise is a nebulous term that can be unrelated to logic or intelligence. Thats the point,take as much uncertainty you can out before delivering a definitive answer. The "Blue eyes" riddle does a good job of eliminating as much uncertainty while delivering a challenging puzzle.

A group of people with assorted eye colors live on an island. They are all perfect logicians -- if a conclusion can be logically deduced, they will do it instantly. No one knows the color of their eyes. Every night at midnight, a ferry stops at the island. Any islanders who have figured out the color of their own eyes then leave the island, and the rest stay. Everyone can see everyone else at all times and keeps a count of the number of people they see with each eye color (excluding themselves), but they cannot otherwise communicate. Everyone on the island knows all the rules in this paragraph.

On this island there are 100 blue-eyed people, 100 brown-eyed people, and the Guru (she happens to have green eyes). So any given blue-eyed person can see 100 people with brown eyes and 99 people with blue eyes (and one with green), but that does not tell him his own eye color; as far as he knows the totals could be 101 brown and 99 blue. Or 100 brown, 99 blue, and he could have red eyes.

The Guru is allowed to speak once (let's say at noon), on one day in all their endless years on the island. Standing before the islanders, she says the following:

"I can see someone who has blue eyes."

Who leaves the island, and on what night?


There are no mirrors or reflecting surfaces, nothing dumb. It is not a trick question, and the answer is logical. It doesn't depend on tricky wording or anyone lying or guessing, and it doesn't involve people doing something silly like creating a sign language or doing genetics. The Guru is not making eye contact with anyone in particular; she's simply saying "I count at least one blue-eyed person on this island who isn't me."

And lastly, the answer is not "no one leaves."

Here is my attempt at a solution...

Spoiler

Given they are there 'endless years', they have to wait until the majority die. In fact, it is the night when the second-to-last blue eyed person has died. The number of remaining brown-eyed persons can be anything from 1 to 100. As all other persons are either blue-eyed or brown-eyed, the remaining blue-eyed person recognizes he's blue-eyed and turns to leave; at this point, the brown-eyed persons are able to recognize they must all be brown-eyed or else the blue-eyed person could not have known. They all leave the island, leaving the Guru behind.

 

[Ruprecht]

I"ve received a few. and they are all in good taste, and help to debunk some of the half truths and blatant lies spoken about the circumstances surrounding Rip's banning.

One thing that is really weird is that there are countless of posters, FAR WORSE ones who have been allowed back.

What... debunking the half truths and blatant lies you were telling, and which you supposedly got from Rip?

 

[Prokofievian]

You solve for sequencing, POL and relays before you deploy (ie communication) -- thats the point. You dont launch something without having the uncertainty of variables you can control accounted for. You would have abysmal deployment rates. What you cant control you deal with as uncertainty -- but contingency plans are always included.

Uncertainty is not the same as...cavalierness, which is how I think you're using the term. If were certain what was going to happen with the stock market, I wouldn't be modelling it statistically: I would just choose the single instrument that was going to increase the most in value and put all my capital there.

You could argue that in doing the modelling to the best of my ability, there's nothing more that can be done. However, once I purchase the instruments, all bets are off. I may be certain that, given that my model is correct the probability of going broke is such and such, but I am not certain that it won't happen. It's not just accounting for variables that we could measure if we had better and more precise instruments: they're more or less stochastic. We're deciding best how to behave in a stochastic reality.

For communication systems, if there weren't uncertainty, they wouldn't convey information.

 

[JDragon]

Here is my attempt at a solution...

Spoiler

Given they are there 'endless years', they have to wait until the majority die. In fact, it is the night when the second-to-last blue eyed person has died. The number of remaining brown-eyed persons can be anything from 1 to 100. As all other persons are either blue-eyed or brown-eyed, the remaining blue-eyed person recognizes he's blue-eyed and turns to leave; at this point, the brown-eyed persons are able to recognize they must all be brown-eyed or else the blue-eyed person could not have known. They all leave the island, leaving the Guru behind.

Actually I am having a knot in my brain.

Spoiler

Seems like the brown-eyeds cannot know because they could also be red-eyed. So that means only the blue eyed one leaves?

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

What... debunking the half truths and blatant lies you were telling, and which you supposedly got from Rip?

I told no lies and acknowledged a mistake I made regarding an apology I thought Rip made. Besides that I made no other "lies" or "half truths." That's on you and your friends.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Uncertainty is not the same as...cavalierness, which is how I think you're using the term. If were certain what was going to happen with the stock market, I wouldn't be modelling it statistically: I would just choose the single instrument that was going to increase the most in value and put all my capital there.

You could argue that in doing the modelling to the best of my ability, there's nothing more that can be done. However, once I purchase the instruments, all bets are off. I may be certain that, given that my model is correct the probability of going broke is such and such, but I am not certain that it won't happen. It's not just accounting for variables that we could measure if we had better and more precise instruments: they're more or less stochastic. We're deciding best how to behave in a stochastic reality.

For communication systems, if there weren't uncertainty, they wouldn't convey information.

But you're accounting for all variables you thought of and can control before deploying. Your quant system can't manipulate the market but you can provide it enough markers to predict to a higher degree of certainty. You can calculate you risk assement during your development stage facing whatever implementation uncertainty you started with. That's what systems engs do on a daily

Your last statement needs clarification. Because I have designed many com sat deployments with a high degree of deployment before launch - are you talking about the duality of wavelengths, frequency, recievers, provisioning?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Here is my attempt at a solution...

Spoiler

Given they are there 'endless years', they have to wait until the majority die. In fact, it is the night when the second-to-last blue eyed person has died. The number of remaining brown-eyed persons can be anything from 1 to 100. As all other persons are either blue-eyed or brown-eyed, the remaining blue-eyed person recognizes he's blue-eyed and turns to leave; at this point, the brown-eyed persons are able to recognize they must all be brown-eyed or else the blue-eyed person could not have known. They all leave the island, leaving the Guru behind.

Nope

Hint, think of the situation if there was only 1 blue eyed person, then go to 2, and so on

 

[Prokofievian]

But you're accounting for all variables you thought of and can control before deploying. Your quant system can't manipulate the market but you can provide it enough markers to predict to a higher degree of certainty

But I even have uncertainty about my model. Typically, I will choose something that is tractable. It will certainly be wrong, to some degree though. This has parallels to radar. I have an antenna model (it is idealized) and a noise model (something with computable moments) and I make linear combinations to maximize SNR. That's all both dealing with uncertainty, but it's also a bit make believe.

Another example would be compressive sensing, where you typically design your compression matrix randomly. This is already being deployed in MRI.

Your last statement needs clarification. Because I have designed many com sat deployments with a high degree of deployment before launch

A signal only has information, in a shannon sense, if it has uncertainty. The maximum throughput of your communication system will be directly proportional to the amount of entropy in the signal.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I"ve received a few. and they are all in good taste, and help to debunk some of the half truths and blatant lies spoken about the circumstances surrounding Rip's banning.

One thing that is really weird is that there are countless of posters, FAR WORSE ones who have been allowed back.

Speaking of far worse posters allowed back, is TheOldMan El Viejito/ProBoxingInsidr/El Anciano? You know him, right?

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Speaking of far worse posters allowed back, is TheOldMan El Viejito/ProBoxingInsidr/El Anciano? You know him, right?

wait, were they all the same?

proboxing was a good poster because he often had interviews with pro boxers. (assuming that was him)

Edit: a mod did say that Anciano was the same guy.