Venezuela Meltdown and Zika Virus

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by platypus44, Feb 16, 2016.

  1. platypus44

    platypus44 Purple Belt

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    Venezuela always had a dysfunctional economic system (I went down there on business a lot 20 years ago before Chavez) but things have deteriorated and the health care system seems to be collapsing. This could lead to a large number of zika cases and the rapid spread of the disease.
    1. Will Venezuela become a true "failed state" a la Somalia, Yemen, Libya, etc.
    2. Will this lead to the virus becoming harder to control?
    3. Will Americans have second thoughts about supporting an avowed "socialist" in the face of clear evidence showing where socialism leads?
     
  2. Rod1

    Rod1 Titanium Belt

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    1.- No, Venezuela wont go the way of those countries because it doesnt has ethnic conflicts, nor there is a soviet block willing to introduce war in the region anymore.

    2.- Yes, its quite likely for the virus to spread pretty quickly in Venezuela with the current state of affairs.

    3.- Its not socialism what fucked Venezuela, is good, old, hispanic corruption mixed with a system which makes corruption 1000% worse.
     
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  3. platypus44

    platypus44 Purple Belt

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    In fairness, they tried to combine a kind of egalitarianism with corruption through their multiple exchange rate shuffle policy and it blew up in their face. They were doing this even 20 years ago when I worked down there (selling gasoline at 8 cents a gallon) giving certain people certain rights to buy a dollar for 6 bolivars when the free market rate was 12 or so (now it is what? 300). But it is a shining example of the unintended consequences of government manipulation of the economy. They should be richer than any other country in Latin America because of their resources but now they are among the poorest.
    If the currency absolutely collapses things could get pretty ugly.
    And the public health problem is a problem which may require intervention by an international agency to avoid spillover effects.
     
  4. IDL

    IDL Gold Belt

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    Are you suggesting that Venezuela is feeling the Bern?
     
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  5. Rod1

    Rod1 Titanium Belt

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    Its not a shining example, because latin american countries are corrupt as fuck, its a shining example that when you have high levels of corruption you need less government intervention.
     
  6. Possum Jenkins

    Possum Jenkins 3 Piece with a Soda Belt

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    Lol at the never ending doom and gloom about Venezuela.

    Their health system is actually more efficient than the US's and on par with the rest of the region:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//most-efficient-health-care-2014-countries

    Their level of poverty decreased dramatically during the Chavez years

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.NAHC/countries/VE?display=graph

    Yeah, that poverty is slightly picking up in the last couple of years. Probably one of the reasons why the ruling party lost congressional power in the last elections and why they'll likely lose the presidency next elections.

    On that subject, Venezuela has had clean elections for over a decade. It was clean when the Chavistas won and it's clean now that they lost. Funny how you stopped hearing all that shit about rigged elections when they lost last year and calmly gave up power.
     
  7. Rod1

    Rod1 Titanium Belt

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    They were anything but clean.
     
  8. platypus44

    platypus44 Purple Belt

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    Their economic system is weird and hard to categorize. They basically manipulate exchange rates. They have an "official" exchange rate of 6 bolivars to the dollar. They print a shitload of bolivars and give them out so that everyone feels good. This means that the black market rate is about 600 bolivars to the dollar. They have a constant source of new dollars because of oil exports. So the government can give certain people 1 dollar for 6 bolivars (or 12 or whatever) which is a huge hidden subsidy. They dole out the dollars to importers of necessities (like toilet paper) and then require that the shops sell them cheap. This creates shortages and long lines. You can buy something like 1800 gallons of gas for 1 dollar (on the black market). People buy the cheap stuff and then cross the border and sell it for dollars. Most people spend their time standing in lines to buy shit and then taking the shit over the border to resell it. This keeps everyone busy but doesn't really produce economic output.
    The health care system depended a lot on Cuban doctors but the diminished oil revenue may mean that the Cuban doctors will go home. There will also be shortages of band aids, and all sorts of other supplies. With everyone standing in line to buy toilet paper there will be no one to kill the mosquitos and Zika will spread.
    This is a potential shit storm of major proportions.
     
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  9. platypus44

    platypus44 Purple Belt

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    It may have been RELATIVELY clean - at least they did allow the opposition party to win.
     
  10. platypus44

    platypus44 Purple Belt

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    This is kinda old data before the oil price collapsed. I think that Chavez was able to help the poor for a while but the economic system is so fucked up that the efficiency losses will swamp any redistribution gain. They are on their way to being Zimbabwe.
     
  11. Hallelujah

    Hallelujah Guest

    Build the wall and give no fucks.
     
  12. JadeOwl

    JadeOwl Brown Belt

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    That had nothing to do with Chavez's policies and everything to do with the price of oil. As soon as that started going down the whole economy started to fall apart. Most of those people will be back under the poverty line in no time.

    That's an understatement if I ever heard one.

    Clean? Give me a break!

    It's a testament to how monumentally fucked up things are in Venezuela that even with all the mountain of shady shit that Maduro did to rig the election he still got his ass kicked in the election.
     
  13. Possum Jenkins

    Possum Jenkins 3 Piece with a Soda Belt

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    So it's just like every other developing, resource-rich country, with ups and downs that depend on market fluctuations.

    Plus, expenditures on health went up with Chavez so yes, it did have to do with his policies.





    Yes clean

    UNASUR: Venezuela Elections, 'Most Transparent We've Observed'


    http://www.telesurtv.net/english/ne...-Transparent-Weve-Observed-20151207-0016.html

    UNASUR is far more independent than OAS since it's free of US influence.

    During Chavez's time all his elections were also deemed clean by international observers. Plus he had a referendum on his OWN presidency, something that even the most advanced and oldest democracies have never done. Again, it's gotta be the most unusual dictatorship in history.
     
  14. JadeOwl

    JadeOwl Brown Belt

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    And they will go back down again.

    Is this a joke? Are you trying to be funny?

    UNASUR is completely bought and paid for by Venezuela. Their mouths are so firmly attached to Maduro's cock that you would need crowbar to pry them loose.

    The only reason Maduro allowed them in to monitor the election was because he knew they wouldn't say shit even if they saw voting fraud with their own eyes.
     
  15. Rod1

    Rod1 Titanium Belt

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    Its certainly not a dictatorship but lets not kid ourselves it was a total failure by any standard whatsoever, and lol at UNASUR being more reliable than OAS.

    And no, dont try to compare Venezuela to other latin american economies.
     
  16. kintana

    kintana Purple Belt

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    A venezuela and the impending doom.

    First I must say I voted in every Venezuelan election since 2012 except the last one.

    And it will not become a failed state. Venezuela still has oil and lots of it. And oil will eventually rise in 5 or 6 years.

    Second the healthcare system is good but just under funded. My mom had surgery over a year ago and there was no anesthesias so she had to buy it independently before the surgery.

    But previously healthcare was pretty readily available though you can doubt the quality.

    The elections I think were fair-ish. By this I mean chavez did not stuff the ballot box but he did pay people to vote and made it easier for cuban nationals, chinese nationals and ecuadorian nationals obtain venezuelan citizenship. Because he knew they would vote for him. Also a lot of other cheap tricks. But in the end in 2012 I am certain chavez won by more votes.

    My cousin is a chavez supporter and he ran the political group in home town. And his job on election day was to get people who hadn't planned on voting on a bus to vote and then pay them. He paid roughly 200US per person.

    Also it was clear if you worked for the government you had to vote. Granted there is not guarantee they would vote for chavez. Which is what happened in 2013 and 2015

    Other than that elections were fair.

    Venezuela is here because of stupidity not socialism though I am not a socialist. You guys never saw the speeches or the propaganda but it was very stupid. And the ideas were moronic and they just spent and spent and spent thinking oil would remain high.

    But the chavez government's policies are directly responsible for Venezuela's state, corruption played a role but less of a role than you would think.
     
  17. Rod1

    Rod1 Titanium Belt

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    Yes, it has oil, but it also has crippling debt, and it keeps rising and rising.

    The need to get their economy running back ASAP.
     
  18. threelions

    threelions Black Belt

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    They are running black markets for basics like food.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-35589524

    That said this has nothing to do with Bernie Sanders. Sanders doesn't want a Chavez style socialism he wants a European version.
     
  19. Possum Jenkins

    Possum Jenkins 3 Piece with a Soda Belt

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    That's if the new government gets rid of them.

    And that's a big if because the programs are so popular and effective the opposition won on a pledge to keep them while making reforms on other fronts. But what do the Venezuelan people know, right?


    Oh right, mighty Venezuela with their whopping 50th-ranked GDP (more or less on par with Peru- lol) and their massive 27 million people somehow coerced all the other South American nations into this union that they run with an iron hand.

    #7 Brazil and #24 Argentina? They had no chance so they just have to play along. Why? Because oil.

    This shit is like the Red Scare in the US in the 1950s when the Soviet Union was this unstoppable empire manipulating everything even outside its borders. Except the USSR really was a superpower while Venezuela is a medium, developing country with a lot of oil.
     
  20. Possum Jenkins

    Possum Jenkins 3 Piece with a Soda Belt

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    Did you read the article?

    The government's fixed prices for staples are at such low values shops lose money if they sell them - so they don't.

    It's not a sub-Saharan Africa-style famine. There's plenty of basics, sellers simply want to maximize their income and profit.
     

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