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Economy US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by TribalDrumz, Oct 1, 2019.

  1. TribalDrumz

    TribalDrumz Black Belt

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  2. PolishHeadlock2

    PolishHeadlock2 Absolutley Haram Platinum Member

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  3. Jballer

    Jballer Red Belt

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    Fake survey conducted by some TDS having losers. Every sane person knows that every aspect of America is the best it’s ever been in it’s entire history.
     
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  4. JDragon

    JDragon DOX News Anchor Platinum Member

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    Well, this is a direct consequence of the trade wars the POTUS has (largely) needlessly started simultaneously. You can thank your Fed for ensuring you will still have leeway in monetary policy when the shit hits the fan, something the EU does not have. The US is gonna be fine in the next crisis, at least comparably. Trump still needs it to happen late enough not to interfere with the election, of course.
     
  5. Satsui Ryu

    Satsui Ryu Black Belt

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    Shocking that low paying antiquated jobs aren't coming back in droves under any circumstance.
     
  6. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    Fucking Absurd lol.



    I must have at least 1,000 posts or so on the US industrial sector (including manufacturing) and there's plenty to say here but I can't even be bothered with it right now. But yeah, essentially that:
    And this:
     
  7. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    You're right in that they aren't - and won't be - of a low-skill and antiquated variety. End this stupid trade war (tariff) bullshit and allow American innovation to reinvent the sector. It was already doing that and on a relentless upswing, for myriad reasons.


     
  8. TribalDrumz

    TribalDrumz Black Belt

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    All i Know is my old company, a giant Electronics company is feeling it hard. They had like 2 plants in China also lol.
     
  9. MikeMcMann

    MikeMcMann Gold Belt

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    ^this.


    Also

    'Tax cut for rich incoming to help fix this problem. Going to need to be the biggest tax cut of all time. Really bigly'.
     
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  10. Rational Poster

    Rational Poster War Room Messiah Platinum Member

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    I fail to see how federal interest rates have much to do with manufacturing growth... especially when they're already super fucking low and have been lowered twice this year.
     
  11. PolishHeadlock2

    PolishHeadlock2 Absolutley Haram Platinum Member

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    Just a quick background on the tax side.

    When the House/Senate/Whitehouse were till working out all the details of Tax Reform they originally included a Border Adjustment Tax (tariff essentially) on imports.

    The economists in favor of it argued that it would result in a stronger $ so as long as businesses had their purchase agreements in U$D the increased purchasing power would offset the impact of the Border Adjustment Tax.

    As it turns out enough businesses surveyed had their agreements in local currency so they scrapped it.

    But now they are acting shocked that this is happening.
     
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  12. Last Samurai

    Last Samurai Gold Belt

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  13. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    A strong dollar does hurt export competitiveness to a degree but that's been more to do with the economy on the whole than any direct action the Fed has taken, which as you note, is continually cut rates. Remember all the headlines about the booming manufacturing sector through his first two years? I said it then too, but it wasn't the tariffs and tax cuts. The latter gave it some temporary extra juice, but the sector had long been on an upswing for years prior.

    It's been on account of the US Shale boom, the AMP initiative swinging into gear (a 2011 Obama policy the Trump Admin has continued), plus a massive volume of available data, developments in analytics and machine learning, new forms of human-machine interaction and the ability to transmit digital instructions to the physical world which also use predictive capabilities to generate value and and create more efficient logistics to handle materials throughout the supply chain.

    All of this has lowered the total cost of ownership for US based industrial production. I don't know why this Administration has chosen to ignore the advice of Harry Moser (who finally got some shine in a WaPo article recently), the founder and president of the Reshoring Initiative.

    The Reshoring Initiative supports the Trump administration’s trade objectives, but not the tariffs. We have offered the administration our Competitiveness Toolkit, which outlines and quantifies alternative actions. These are intended to avoid retaliation by other countries and to avoid making some domestic sectors more competitive at the expense of others.

    Several trends drive the shift from offshoring to reshoring: the rising costs of offshore production; the impact of distance on quality, innovation, flexibility, responsiveness, inventory and availability; improved U.S. competitiveness via new production technologies; and the increased use of a more sophisticated total cost of ownership (TCO) model—provided by the Reshoring Initiative—to quantify the hidden costs and risks of offshoring.

    Tools offered by the Reshoring Initiative are well worth getting to know. For example, the organization’s Library shows industries and companies that are reshoring, and could be a potential source of new business. Another tool, the TCO Estimator, can help business and their customers make better sourcing decisions. It helps companies account for all relevant factors—overhead, balance sheet, risks, corporate strategy and other external and internal business considerations—to determine the true total cost.
     
  14. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    I reckon we'll be alright though.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. PolishHeadlock2

    PolishHeadlock2 Absolutley Haram Platinum Member

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    Also what would the dollar being getting strong against if not all other currencies?

    He's so fucking stupid
     
  16. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    But check it out...

    “We have now tariffed our way into [artificial] manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.



    {<jordan}
     
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  17. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    #LudditesNeverLearn
     
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  18. NoDak

    NoDak #Elasticity

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    Is this part in reference to China being justified? The US should have leaned on its EU/EA allies to form a united front there instead of picking fights with all of them simultaneously plus declaring Canada a national security threat. It's been so self-defeating and it'll take a long time to fully repair. In any case, I still wouldn't of placed tariffs on Chinese goods. The problem with them is intellectual property and trade secret theft within critical industries such as aerospace and semiconductors.

    If you want to fuck China's ambitions up badly, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to deny them IC's from Intel, Qualcomm, Micron, Microchip, Texas Instruments, NVIDIA, et al. when such a significant portion of US semiconductor revenue is made through Chinese sales. You place export controls on the chipmaker's suppliers and choke off access to materials, machinery, equipment, software and services they require to raise their own domestic industry.

    Namely these industrial high tech firms in particular. One of them is based in the Netherlands (ASML) and the other Japan obviously, this is where it would be nice to utilize the relationships with the allies you've been so keen to throw under the bus instead.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Orgasmo

    Orgasmo Red Belt

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    I just read an article on the trade war last week that had an interesting take on the situation. Essentially, China won't back down because it does not see itself having favorable trade balance despite $360 billion trade surplus in export. Much of that export, according to Beijing, benefited US as China absorbed the cost of manufacturing and environmental damages on behalf of American corporations. Beijing also looks at services US firms provide in China and they conclude that China is running a large deficit there. They also think that because of the much higher profit margin service has in comparison to manufactured goods, both sides are just about even.

    Shit now I can't find the source.
     
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  20. Last Samurai

    Last Samurai Gold Belt

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