Update: Sinn Fein look set to win Irish elections

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by ZroC, May 24, 2014.

  1. ZroC

    ZroC Silver Belt

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    Update: It looks like Sinn Fein are going to win the elections. Only 130 of the 949 seats have been filled In terms of seats secured so far, Sinn F
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2014
  2. BKMMAFAN

    BKMMAFAN Silver Belt

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    Is re-unification an actual possibility here? Seems pretty far-fetched.
     
  3. ZroC

    ZroC Silver Belt

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    Extremely far fetched, but that's Sinn Fein's goal. If they win on both sides of the border they could make a strong case for it.

    Although, since Sinn Fein presents itself as a reunification party the very fact that they're being voted in the north strongly suggests the north are coming round to unification. Secession of Irish parts of the north is at least a possibility.
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  4. Bogeyman

    Bogeyman Electrical Cord Belt

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    It's not far-fetched at all. The likelihood of it happening in the next decade is slim, but you never know what could happen if Scotland votes to seperate from the UK this year, it could be a real game changer. That aside, I think it's most likely Ireland will unify in 20-30 years.

    The success of Sinn Fein only really strengthens this argument, Sinn Fein alone aren't by any means the sole driving force of re-unification, there are a lot of economic/social factors at play too.

    Ireland would be a much better place with Sinn Fein in government North and South, but Sinn Fein needs to grow and diversify a bit, but that does already seem to be happening. Their biggest stumbling block for now is obviously the fact that some people still have a bad taste in their mouths over the troubles in the north but that will fade. Their economic policies aren't to everyone's liking either but I'd imagine as the party grows and becomes more influential, they'll develop that too.

    The other parties, born out of the civil war really seem to be starting to go stale. They're both incredibly similar and the next generation seems to want a bit more choice than that. Hopefully if Ireland does re-unify, we can build a new political culture from the bottom up. This Sinn Fein development really is a positive development in the grand scheme of things in my opinion.
     
  5. Hotspur

    Hotspur Blue Belt

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    Good on Sinn Fein, whilst it sticks in the throat a bit the British tax payer paying some of these ex terrorists quite a good wage somethings got to give and I would happily pay it for peace in Ulster.If they win the seats and gain control, I hope the 'protestant' residents can accept that ,could they? The Irish in me hopes they can with out a war or the violence of the 70/80's.
     
  6. Rusk

    Rusk Black Belt

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    Good, Ireland becomes united, Scotland independent, and the rest of UK goes to muslims, everybody wins.
     
  7. Hotspur

    Hotspur Blue Belt

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    It wont be the UK (United Kingdoms) when Scotland secede's we'll have to find a new name and flag!
     
  8. ZroC

    ZroC Silver Belt

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    Secession of Irish areas is possible but the north would split before the unionists ever go back to Ireland. Last year they rioted because a British flag was taken down. You'd have to completely stomp out that culture before you ever unify Ireland. Seeing as removal of the flag was in essence a small effort to push that culture out we got a small taste of how they'd respond to it. I sometimes think Ireland will be a full EU state before we ever get full reunification.
     
  9. Rusk

    Rusk Black Belt

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    Anglosaxia. :icon_chee

    Or Anglostan :eek:
     
  10. Hotspur

    Hotspur Blue Belt

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    LOL fuck that! Us northerners have nothing to do with them, we want the Danelaw back!
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Rusk

    Rusk Black Belt

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    i would totally support that ^^ i like the north-english accent
     
  12. threelions

    threelions Black Belt

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    It's entirely possible the whole peace process is set up to facilitate it eventually happening. Only an idiot would think otherwise, everyone knows the Republicans are breeding faster(as Catholics do) it's inevitable.

    No Northern Ireland is a democracy. If SF win they can call a referendum and if they win Ireland is united. The Loyalists don't get a say(outside of voting) and the British Government would be very very happy to have that monkey off their back and let Ireland deal with it instead.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  13. ZroC

    ZroC Silver Belt

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    People in the North who view themselves as British won't be pleased about being handed over to Ireland any more than people in the South would be about being handed over to the British. We're talking about people who rioted and reopened those old wounds because the union jack was removed from Belfast city hall. There are two very distinct lines in the north with one side associating themselves as Irish and the other British. Ground can be gained and lost in other areas but in those areas you're either British or Irish and you vote your political party accordingly. Those hard line areas will never take orders from the ROI.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  14. threelions

    threelions Black Belt

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    Of course but if the votes come in due to population growth then Ireland is United. They will riot and they will be the violent little fucks they are but they will be part of Ireland and the British Government will be happy they've finally got rid of that weight around their necks(of their own making).

    It's the reason that even the Irish Government haven't made a huge deal over wanting NI back, it's nothing but trouble to whoever has to control it. Move one way and the Republicans will bomb you, move the other way and the Loyalists will.

    In reality if it happens Loyalists will be offered British citizenship and homes on the mainland, if they offered that to Hong Kong they will offer it to them. But it's inevitable, the population is swinging in the republicans favour, hence the voting trend.
     
  15. MicroBrew

    MicroBrew Steel Belt

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    :icon_chee
     
  16. Hotspur

    Hotspur Blue Belt

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    Whilst I think Ireland should be unified I don't like throwing away the Northern Irish people like that. If you agree with them or not they've remained loyal to Britain,they fought gallantly in the World wars and all the others. They've lost a lot of Sons for Britain,I don't think it be right to just hand them over to Ireland like that.
     
  17. threelions

    threelions Black Belt

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    Scotland has provided some of the best soldiers Britain has ever had and contributed a huge amount to the Union should we abandon those that vote no to independence? See what I'm saying?

    It's democracy, NI won't just be given away but if the majority of people in NI want to be part of Ireland then they will eventually get that wish.

    You can say the same about India(a huge amount of Indian soldiers died for Britain) or Hong Kong, Ireland(Lots of Irish fought for Britain through history)? Britain will do what it has done before offer those that wish to remain part of the UK citizenship and homes on the mainland, that's not abandoning.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  18. ZroC

    ZroC Silver Belt

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    Population growth won't cross over the divide. The same regions that are staunch unionist today will be unionist tomorrow. If the UK doesn't take them they will secede before they ever become part of the ROI. Short of invasion it isn't going to happen.

    Countries don't have to stay together and do what the majority want. Splits occur when a large demographic of a country don't feel the elected government represents them. Muslim Pakistan split with Hindi India for this very reason. When Pakistan felt they were too small to be represented by the Hindi majority they chose to split. The simple reality is that northern Ireland unionists have no place in the republic of Ireland. You either have to politelty ask them to drop all of their beliefs and hope for the best (see previous mention of flag lowering for how that works out) or remove them by force (genocide/forced relocation) and hope the UK doesn't get involved. Nothing says Northern Ireland has to remain one country on its own. As for offering citizenship it

    In any case, the population of Northern Ireland is only expected to grow by about 150k by the year 2032. Unless we're assuming a huge chunk of the unionists suddenly leave or die off we can assume the demographic lines aren't really going to change much any time soon. The average size of Catholic families in NI has also been trending down and more in line with those of protestant families.

    Other than that a significant majority consider themselves British according to the census.
    [​IMG]

    and also people in Northern Ireland born prior to 1983 acquired British citizenship automatically and those born after need one additional link to claim it. In other words pretty much anyone who wants it already has it so trying to win unionist favour by offering it isn't really an option.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  19. threelions

    threelions Black Belt

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    So far yes but it's not going to last. Be it ten years or a hundred it's going to happen.

    As for the citizenship, yes part of NI means being able to claim Brit or Irish nationality but that doesn't give you a house on the mainland and if Ireland took over that would end the only way they could be British is to come to the mainland.

    Again I don't know how else to say it it's a democracy if there's enough people in NI that want to be part of Ireland it will happen. The British Government has been praying for it for years. Even Thatcher the Iron lady kept out a secret hand of peace to the IRA despite publicly being a hard liner. NI is nothing but a cause of pain both in it's embarrassment historically and modern security risks. In the 70's British security forces had the IRA on it's knees they stopped and offered peace talks in secret, before the latest peace talks the British intelligence services had leaks in every level of the IRA but still went for talks instead of destroying them from the inside out. Britain doesn't want NI and will gladly hand it over to Ireland given the chance.

    Will there be a shit load of trouble when it happens? Sure but Britain won't care as it won't be their issue anymore.

    SF won't be out to cause any trouble because the biggest thing the IRA ever did to move closer to a united Ireland was to put down their weapons. No one bar the loyalists were against a united Ireland, the only thing that the Brits were against in the modern age was not giving in to the IRA, once that was over no one cared. Starting up the troubles again would only move NI further away from integration with the republic.

    As for the riots from the loyalists over the flag, even that was nothing compared to what happened during the height of the troubles. back in the early days(of the modern troubles) there would have been bombs, assassinations and armed militants patrolling the streets. A riot is pretty tame by NI standards.

    Screw it I'd say if Scotland gets independence let them take NI, the loyalists are mainly from Scottish stock anyway.
     
  20. ZroC

    ZroC Silver Belt

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    Update: It looks like Sinn Fein are going to win the elections. Only 130 of the 949 seats have been filled In terms of seats secured so far, Sinn F
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2014

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