Unpopular opinion: I don't see Jon having any success HW

He can’t possibly still be in his prime. He’s had 27 fights in the UFC. I think a fair point can be made that he is and has been in decline for at least his last 2 fights. That being said if an aging fighter is going to make it, it’ll probably be at HW.
 
If he takes a tune up fight & proceeds to get knocked out brutally then that would leave a huge dent in his entire career.
He already put a huge dent in his career with his out of the ring antics. If he doesnt take a tune up fight and gets brutally stopped it would tarnish the promotor/hw division, wich imo is worse for the ufc.
 
Against Stipe:
-too much wrestling to take him down at will, too much composure when it comes to striking, will walk forward... the best chance Jones has here is to finish what Cormier began, namely to Bisping his eyes.
35% winning chance

Against Ngannou:
-that's where Jones has good chances to win, of course he can get killed by Ngannou, especially as Ngannou will be the first he ever fought who has the same reach as him, Ngannou is also way bigger of a man than Jones, but outside of that he has nothing for Jones. 50/50

Against Derrick:
-he might Cormier his ass, might also get sent to the shadow realms if he tries to stand with Derrick. Jones got hit a lot lately, fortunately for him it was by blown up one-legged MW Santos and by Reyes, so his chin hold up, however there is no chance his chin holds up against Derrick (as would no human chin on Planet Earth). 50/50

Against Jairzinho:
Jairzinho is a good striker but not supreme either and doesn't have the type of power Derrick or Ngannou possess.
That's where Jones has the best chances IMO. 65/35 for Jones

Against Volkov:
Very tricky fight, if it stays on the feet, I see Volkov wining, he is significantly bigger and heavier than Jon (though he gives up a bit of reach), has crisp and composed striking, and a good gas tank. Naturally he could also get wrestlefucked to a decision or subbed. 55/45 for Jones


Of course, those are arbitrary numbers, it's just to give an overall idea of how I see these fights play out.

WHat do you think sherbros ?
This is a big reason I don't want Jones going straight to a title shot (and then stalling two divisions)
 
Jon owns HW, won’t even be close. He has more talent in his pinkie that anyone at HW
 
He already put a huge dent in his career with his out of the ring antics. If he doesnt take a tune up fight and gets brutally stopped it would tarnish the promotor/hw division, wich imo is worse for the ufc.

I didn't get this part. Why would him losing at HW without taking any tune up fight would tarnish HW division? It would only embellish the fact that HW is a different beast.
 
Just two weeks ago, DC said he could never get the best of Cain in training. He said he knows he couldn't beat Cain if they fought. He brought this up due to Usman and Burns training together before.

Depleted DC gave juiced up Jones some good fights. Healthy Prime Cain vs juiced up Jones would have been a fun fight and I sure as hell wouldn't have put money on that fight.
Styles make fights but I think MMA math works here, prime Cain would have been in Jones' face for 5 rounds and CTEed his head.
 
HW is trash. Was anyone impressed by the Stipe vs DC fight ? they both looked so slow.

Jon will do well. I'd favor him over stipe.
 
I didn't get this part. Why would him losing at HW without taking any tune up fight would tarnish HW division? It would only embellish the fact that HW is a different beast.
Would make it seem like a circus with the promotion giving undeserved titleshots because of name value, seeing jones has had very boring fights wich he might as well lost in his last 3. (not saying there was a robbery, just that the judges might have gone the other way, dont lose your minds sherbros)
And yes, i realize the irony of this statement as they keep doing it, but they have to stop at one point :D
 
TS, you're underestimating a few things.

1. How sloppy and slow heavyweights are.

2. How quickly heavyweights gas out and become exhausted.

3. How good Jon Jones striking defense is. In 22 UFC fights, how many times has he been hit cleanly? And that is against almost exclusively top 10 LHWs, who enter the cage weighing around 230 lbs (same as Stipe). How many times has he been rocked?

4. Jones' reach advantage. He has a reach advantage over every at HW. Over most of them, it's around 6 inches. He has always used his reach advantage really well and going up against slower opponents will make that even easier for him.
 
His biggest issue will be his (presumably) lack of power, and HWs being much more able and willing to walk through his strikes to try and hit him, especially if he starts pulling away on the scorecards and they need a KO. I expect if he can't get the TDs/gas out his opponents at HW he's going to be going to decisions. But then again, that's basically what happened at LHW too. Remember, most LHWs could be reasonably sized HWs too.

Basically so long as he still fights smart, there's no reason to think he can't replicate at minimum much of his success at HW. And if there's one thing you can't deny it's his fight IQ.
 
He had to clear out generations of LHW, and age. He was the youngest champ ever. You get bigger as you age

A fight against Stipe or Francis appears to be more financially lucrative then a fight against Santos or Reyes. This fight could have taken place two years ago.
 
This is a big reason I don't want Jones going straight to a title shot (and then stalling two divisions)

Stall 2 divisions? As of next Saturday there will have been 2 LHW title fights since Jon dropped the belt last year lol
 
HW is trash. Was anyone impressed by the Stipe vs DC fight ? they both looked so slow.

Jon will do well. I'd favor him over stipe.
It's normal for heavier guys to look slower...
It always bothers me when everyone says that HWs have poor technique, are slow etc.
You can't be as agile, as fast, and as endurant when you weigh 260 pounds compared to when you weigh 150...
If you go by that, all your "technical" "fast" "agile" 160 pound fighters would get killed in an openweight bout (I mean literally) by those guys, so stop comparing what can't be compared.
Do you even know why there are weightclasses in combat sports?
Because, unlike in sports like basketball or long distance running where you can show up as a 5.3 guy or as a 320 pounder without having to fear for your physical integrity (you will just not get selected in basketball or lose the race in running), if a 140 pound guy shows up against a 280 pound guy, chances are high the 140 pound guy never gets to see his family again, and the promotion would get in trouble for that.
That's a reason why there are weightclasses (and also because it allows for more fights and different types of fights).
So put a lil respect on those guy's names, because in the end of the day, they are the ones who are the baddest men on the planet.
 
TS, you're underestimating a few things.

1. How sloppy and slow heavyweights are.

2. How quickly heavyweights gas out and become exhausted.

3. How good Jon Jones striking defense is. In 22 UFC fights, how many times has he been hit cleanly? And that is against almost exclusively top 10 LHWs, who enter the cage weighing around 230 lbs (same as Stipe). How many times has he been rocked?

4. Jones' reach advantage. He has a reach advantage over every at HW. Over most of them, it's around 6 inches. He has always used his reach advantage really well and going up against slower opponents will make that even easier for him.
Not against the top HW's though except Roz.
Jones has 4 inches over Stipe, Blaydes and Volkov, 5 over Derrick and 1 small inch over Ngannou.
Blaydes and Volkov also are taller than him, which also plays a factor when it comes to reach.
So he will definitely have an advantage but not enough to do what he did at LHW against guys he was 4 inches taller and had 10 inches reach over.
 
What with all this "unpopular opinion" threads lately? New trend on sherdog?
 
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