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Unpopular opinion: I don't see Jon having any success HW

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by GoatArtemLobov, Feb 24, 2021.

  1. GoatArtemLobov Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Against Stipe:
    -too much wrestling to take him down at will, too much composure when it comes to striking, will walk forward... the best chance Jones has here is to finish what Cormier began, namely to Bisping his eyes.
    35% winning chance

    Against Ngannou:
    -that's where Jones has good chances to win, of course he can get killed by Ngannou, especially as Ngannou will be the first he ever fought who has the same reach as him, Ngannou is also way bigger of a man than Jones, but outside of that he has nothing for Jones. 50/50

    Against Derrick:
    -he might Cormier his ass, might also get sent to the shadow realms if he tries to stand with Derrick. Jones got hit a lot lately, fortunately for him it was by blown up one-legged MW Santos and by Reyes, so his chin hold up, however there is no chance his chin holds up against Derrick (as would no human chin on Planet Earth). 50/50

    Against Jairzinho:
    Jairzinho is a good striker but not supreme either and doesn't have the type of power Derrick or Ngannou possess.
    That's where Jones has the best chances IMO. 65/35 for Jones

    Against Volkov:
    Very tricky fight, if it stays on the feet, I see Volkov wining, he is significantly bigger and heavier than Jon (though he gives up a bit of reach), has crisp and composed striking, and a good gas tank. Naturally he could also get wrestlefucked to a decision or subbed. 55/45 for Jones


    Of course, those are arbitrary numbers, it's just to give an overall idea of how I see these fights play out.

    WHat do you think sherbros ?
     
  2. sublime20 Yellow Belt

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  3. GoatArtemLobov Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    And I don't believe MMA math like "Cormier is 1-1 + 48-47 loss against Stipe, won against Derrick, and Jones is 2-0 against Cormier" works here
     
  4. PlasticFishBowl Yellow Belt

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    I am very convinced HW is an awful wasteland for talent. If Jon can look anything like his old self I think he will do extremely well. But he did seem to be declining (I guess cokeheads don’t age well?) and now has a long layoff, so that could be a recipe for disaster.

    But top HWs are severely less skilled than Jones.
     
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  5. JudoThrowFiasco Charming Quark Platinum Member

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    He does/did get into tougher fights against bigger LHW who he couldnt bully in the clinch or keep at range with his length. I agree HW isn't going to be as easy for him as he may think. Jon seems to base his success chances on how well
    DC did
     
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  6. Bork Neslar Brown Belt

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    Let's wait and see.
     
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  7. FreddieRoachsVoice Purple Belt

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    I'm sure he would have been able to beat all of the top guys in his prime but I'm not going to ignore the fact that Jones has only had 1 good performance in the last 5 years and that itself was 4 years ago. I do believe the main reason for his lackluster showings in the past few fights is lack of motivation but it's hard to bank on him showing up and putting on a 2011 level performance at a new weight class, coming off a year plus long layoff, and fighting some stylistically unfavorable opponents. This screams upset to me so much that I'd actually be surprised if Jones won.

    Like Demetrius Johnson, Jones stayed on at his division several years too long after cleaning it out and wasted some of his best years fighting inferior competition (distance yourself from the hype machine and look at who Smith, Reyes, Santos, and even Gus beat to get title shots ffs). Now, he's going up too late IMO and this will cost him.
     
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  8. Sakurabaism Black Belt

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    I don't think your opinion is unpopular. many don't say it outright but they have some reservation about his chances.
     
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  9. GoatArtemLobov Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    I don't buy in this narrative anymore.
    Literally 1 third of the roster could make more than 205 with ease.
    All the LHW, MW, and even a few WW already walk around heavier than that.
    Why would they go through grueling weight cuts if HW was so easy...
     
  10. Huligani Number One Bullshit

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    I don't see Jon ever fighting at HW.
     
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  11. FedorGOAT Ultimate Fedorist Platinum Member

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    Many of those weapons in Jon's arsenal will not translate well in the HW. Anyone expecting a crafty, agile Jon in HW will be massively disappointed. Remember he will be the heaviest in his career when he will fight in HW. Those extra weight will slow him down significantly & will only hinder his movement. I don't think he can overpower many of those HW, cause majority of his takedowns are Greco roman based, Starts from uperbody.
     
  12. mmadeewana Purple Belt

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    Prime Jones would have easily beaten prine Velasquez
     
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  13. Gamer007 Black Belt

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    So you don't see him having any success at HW?

    Then you proceed to list your opinion and give Jon the advantage or 50/50 odds in 4/5 fights?
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2021
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  14. Tweak896 Black Belt

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    Jon jones is a mixture of physical advantages and skills. At hw he's more on an even field for physical gifts, so he loses that. But still people are overlooking Jones' skills. He will have decent wrestling and long striking as well, he'll definitely have speed advantage. His only downfall at hw would be his chin, which is pretty good as it is.
     
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  15. VinceArch I am all of me.

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    If anything Jon is in his prime right now he's 33. Also... a prime Cain would've smashed Jon's face in until the ref stepped in to save Jon's life.
     
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  16. GoatArtemLobov Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    50/50 against top 5 guys is not enough to become champ.
    Stipe has 70/30 against most of the top HW, Adesanya has 75/25 against top MW, Khabib has 90/10 against LW etc.
    I obviously talk out of my ass with these numbers but you get what I mean.
     
  17. OmegaRugal Red Belt

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    Just two weeks ago, DC said he could never get the best of Cain in training. He said he knows he couldn't beat Cain if they fought. He brought this up due to Usman and Burns training together before.

    Depleted DC gave juiced up Jones some good fights. Healthy Prime Cain vs juiced up Jones would have been a fun fight and I sure as hell wouldn't have put money on that fight.
     
  18. TryggeTryggvar Green Belt

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    This, but they should have given him a tune up fight before giving him a ts. What if he flops hard at hw.
     
  19. infinite666 Orange Belt

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    You will change your mind when jones beats stipe
     
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  20. FedorGOAT Ultimate Fedorist Platinum Member

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    If he takes a tune up fight & proceeds to get knocked out brutally then that would leave a huge dent in his entire career.
     
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