HELMUT NORPOTH
Curriculum Vitae
Address Department of Political Science
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, New York 11794-4392
Tel: (631) 632-7640, 7667
Fax: (631) 632-4116
E-mail:
[email protected]
Education B.A. (Equiv.), The Free University of Berlin, Germany, 1966
M.A. in Political Science, The University of Michigan, 1967
Ph.D. in Political Science, The University of Michigan, 1974
Appointments Professor of Political Science (with tenure), Stony Brook University,
1985 to present.
Associate Professor (with tenure), same, 1980-1985.
Assistant Professor, same, 1979-1980.
Assistant Professor, University of Cologne, Germany, 1974-1978.
Instructor, University of Texas, 1972-1974.
Temporary Positions Lecturer, ECPR School in Quantitative Analysis, University of Essex, England, Summers of 1976, 1978-1987, 1989, 1990, 1992.
Visiting Lecturer, The University of Arizona, 1977-1979.
Visiting Professor, ZUMA (Center for Surveys, Methods and Analysis), Mannheim, Germany, Fall, 1985.
Director of Graduate Studies, Dept. of Political Science, 1982-1985.
Acting Chair, Dept. of Political Science, 1990-1991, 1997-1998.
Director of Studies (part-time), Foreign Policy Association, 1999-2002.
Books and Monographs
Analysis of Variance (with Gudmund Iversen) Beverly Hills and London: Sage Publications, 1976; 2nd ed. 1987.
Politics and Government in Europe Today (with Colin Campbell, Harvey Feigenbaum and Ronald Linden). San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1990; 2nd ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1995.
Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (ed., with Michael Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991.
Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher and the British Voter. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1992. [Featured in an "Author Meets Critics" panel at the 1993 Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC]
The American Voter Revisited (with Michael Lewis-Beck, William Jacoby and Herbert Weisberg), Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2008.
Articles and Chapters in Books
"Explaining Party Cohesion in Congress: The Case of Shared Policy Attitudes,"
American Political Science Review, 70 (December 1976), 1156-1171.
"Party Identification in West Germany: Tracing an Elusive Concept,"
Comparative Political Studies 11 (April, 1978), 36-61. [Reprinted in
Controversies in Voting Behavior, eds. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg, Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1984.]
"The Parties Come to Order: Dimensions of Preferential Choice in the West German Electorate,"
American Political Science Review 73 (September, 1979), 724-736.
"Choosing a Coalition Partner: Mass Preference and Elite Decisions in West Germany,"
Comparative Political Studies, 12 (January, 1980), 424-440.
"Mass Media Use and Electoral Choice in West Germany" (with Kendall L. Baker),
Comparative Politics, 13 (October, 1980), 1-14.
"Candidates on Television: The Content and Impact of the 1972 Electoral Debates in West Germany" (with Kendall L. Baker),
Public Opinion Quarterly, 45 (Fall 1981), 329-345.
"The German Federal Republic: Coalition Government at the Brink of Majority Rule," in
Coalition Government in Western Democracies, ed. Eric C. Browne and John Dreijmanis (New York: Longman, 1982), ch. 1.
"Partisan Dealignment in the American Electorate: Itemizing the Deductions since 1964" (with Jerrold G. Rusk),
American Political Science Review, 76 (September 1982), 522-537.
"Macroeconomic Conditions and Fluctuations of Presidential Popularity: The Question of Lagged Effects" (with Thom Yantek),
American Journal of Political Science, 27 (November 1983), 785-807.
"The Making of a More Partisan Electorate in West Germany,"
British Journal of Political Science, 13 (1983), 479-497.
"Candidates and Issues in the 1980 Campaign: The Ideological Connection" (with Steven Finkel),
Political Behavior 6 (January 1984), 61-77.
"Economics, Politics, and the Cycle of Presidential Popularity,"
Political Behavior, 6 (July 1984), 253-273. Reprinted in
Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: The United States and Western Europe, ed. Heinz Eulau and Michael Lewis-Beck, New York: Agathon Press, 1985, 167-186.
"The Difference Between Attitudes and Non-Attitudes: Just Measurements?" (with Milton Lodge),
American Journal of Political Science, 29 (May 1985), 109-123.
"Transfer Functions Analysis," in
New Tools for Social Scientists, ed. William D. Berry and Michael S. Lewis-Beck; Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1986, 241-273.
"The President's Party in Midterm Elections: Going From Bad to Worse" (with Alan Abramowitz and Albert Cover),
American Journal of Political Science, 30 (August 1986), 562-576.
"The Falklands War and Government Popularity in Britain: Rally without Consequence or Surge without Decline?"
Electoral Studies 6 (April 1987), 3-16.
"Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain,"
American Political Science Review, 81 (Sept. 1987), 949-959.
"Under Way and Here to Stay: Party Realignment in the 1980s?"
Public Opinion Quarterly, 51 (Fall 1987), 376-391.
"Television Debates and Press Coverage in the 1980 and 1983 West German Elections" (with Kendall Baker), in
Germany at the Polls: The Bundestag Elections of the 1980s, ed. Karl H. Cerny. Durham: Duke University Press, 1990, 167-186.
"The Falklands War and British Public Opinion," in
International Crisis and Democratic Politics ed. James W. Lamare. New York: Praeger, 1991, 29-52.
"The Popularity of the Thatcher Government: A Matter of War and Economy," in
Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, ed. Helmut Norpoth, Michael Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991, 141-160.
"Government Turnover and Economic Accountability," (with Christian Goergen),
Electoral Studies, 10 (April 1991), 191-207.
"Wanted: The Education President -- Issue Trespassing by Political Candidates," (with Bruce Buchanan),
Public Opinion Quarterly, 56 (Spring 1992), 87-99.
"German Unification and Electoral Choice," (with Dieter Roth), in
The New Germany Votes, ed. Russell Dalton. Providence, RI: Berg Publishers, 1993, 209-230.
"Popular Influence on Supreme Court Decisions," (with Jeffrey Segal),
American Political Science Review, 88 (Sept. 1994), 711-716.
"Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters," (with H. Brandon Haller),
American Journal of Political Science, 38 (August 1994), 625-650.
"Is Clinton Doomed: An Early Forecast for 1996,"
PS: Political Science & Politics 28 (June 1995), 1-7.
"Presidents and the Prospective Voter,"
Journal of Politics, 58 (August 1996), 776-92; and 802-805.
"Timid or Prudent? The German Electorate in 1994," (with Dieter Roth), in
Germany Divided: The 1994 Bundestag Election, ed. Russell Dalton, New York: Berg, 1996, 209-232.
"The Economy and Elections." In
Comparative Democratic Elections, ed. Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi, and Pippa Borris, Newbury Park,CA: Sage Publications, 1996, 297-316.
"Of Time and Candidates: A Forecast for 1996,"
American Politics Quarterly 24 (Oct. 1996), 443-467
[reprinted with a 1996 postscript in
Before the Vote, ed. James E. Campbell and James C. Garand, Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 2000, 57-81.]
"From Argentina to Zambia: A World-wide Test of Economic Voting," (with Sam Wilkin and Brandon Haller)
Electoral Studies 16 (Sep. 1997), 301-316.
"Reality Bites: News Exposure and Economic Opinion," (with Brandon Haller),
Public Opinion Quarterly, 61 (Winter 1997), 555-575.
"It's about Time: Modeling Social and Political Dynamics," (with Harold Clarke and Paul Whiteley), in
Research Strategies in the Social Sciences, ed. Elinor Scarbrough and Eric Tanenbaum, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998, 127-155.
"Elections and Political Change: A German Sonderweg?" in
The Federal Republic at 50, ed. Peter Merkl, New York:Macmillan Press, 1999, 87-99.
“Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public” (with Michael Nickelsburg),
Electoral Studies 19 (2000), 313-332.
“Primary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore,”
PS: Political Science and Politics, 34 (March 2001), 45-48.
“Divided Government and Economic Voting,”
Journal of Politics 63 (May 2001), 414-435.
“ ‘Of Time and Candidates’ Revised: Too Generous for Al Gore,”
American Politics Research, 29 (May 2001), 313-319.
“Realignment and Macropartisanship” (with Michael F. Meffert and Anirudh V. S. Ruhil),
American Political Science Review, 95 (Dec. 2001), 953-962.
“On a Short Leash: Term Limits and the Economic Voter,” in
Economic Voting ed. Han Dorussen and Michaell Taylor. London: Routledge, 2002, 121-136.
“The Red-Green Victory: Against All Odds?” (with Thomas Gschwend), in
German Politics and Society, 21 (Spring 2003), 15-34.
“Box-Jenkins Modeling,” “Periodicity,” and “Anova Model I,” in
The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, ed. Michael Lewis-Beck, Alan Bryman, and Futing Liao, Sage Publications: Thousand Oaks, CA, 2003.
“Bush v. Gore: The Recount of Economic Voting,” in
Models of Voting in Presidential Elections: The 2000 U.S. Election, ed. Herbert Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2004, 49-64.
“Consumer Demand for Election News: The Horserace Sells” (with Shanto Iyengar and Kyu Hahn),
Journal of Politics, 66 (February 2004), 157-175.
“Forecasting British Elections: A Dynamic Perspective,”
Electoral Studies, 23 (2004), 297-305.
“From Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote,”
PS: Political Science and Politics, 37 (October 2004), 737-740.
“As New Hampshire Goes (in January)…”
PS: Political Science and Politics, 38 (January 2005), 37.
“Economy,” in
Polling America: An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion, ed. Samuel Best and Benjamin Radcliffe, Westport: Greenwood Press, 2005.
“The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections,“ (with Matthew Lebo),
British Journal of Political Science 37 (2006), 71-87.
“Electoral Myth and Reality: Realignments in American Politics,” (with Jerrold G. Rusk),
Electoral Studies 26 (2007), 392-403.
“Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004,” (with Andrew Sidman),
Political Behavior, 29 (2007), 175-195.
“On the Razor’s Edge: The Forecast of the Primary Model,“
PS: Political Science and Politics, 41 (October 2008), 683-686.
“Assessments of the 2008 National Elections Forecasts: The Primary Model in 2008,”
PS: Political Science and Politics, 42 (January 2009), 20-21.
“From Eisenhower to Bush: Perceptions of Candidates and Parties,”
Electoral Studies 28 (2009), 523-532.
“The Chancellor Model: Forecasting German National Elections,” (with Thomas Gschwend),
International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2010), 42-53.
"Balance or Dominance: Party Competition in Congressional Politics," (with Suzanne Robbins),
Political Research Quarterly 63 (June 2010), 316-327.
“Yes, Prime Minister: The key to forecasting British elections,“ (with Matthew Lebo),
Electoral Studies 30 (2011), 258-263.
“War and Momentum: The 2008 Presidential Nominations,” (with David Perkins),
PS: Political Science and Politics, 44 (July 2011), 536-543.
“To Change Or Not To Change Horses: The World War II Elections,”
Presidential Studies Quarterly 42 (June 2012), 324-342.
“Fighting to Win: Wartime Morale in the American Public.” (with Andrew Sidman)
Electoral Studies 31 (2012), 330-341.
Non-English Publications
"Kanzlerkandidaten: Wie sie vom Wähler bewertet werden und seine Wahlentscheindung beeinflussen,"
Politische Vierteljahresschrift 18, (1977), 551-572.
"Dimensionen des Parteienkonflikts und Präferenzordnungen der deutschen Wählerschaft: Eine Unfoldinganalyse,"
Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie, 10 (1979), 350-362.
Wählerverhalten in der Bundesrepublik. (Electoral Behavior in Germany). Frankfurt and New York: Campus, 1980.
"Die Fernsehdebatten der Spitzenkandidaten vor den Bundestagswahlen 1972 und 1976: Form, Inhalt und das Urteil des Publikums" (with Kendall Baker and Klaus Schönbach),
Publizistik 26 (Oct. 1981), 530-544.
"Von Adenauer bis Schmidt: Wirtschaftslage und Kanzlerpopularität" (with Thom Yantek), in
Wahlen und Politisches System, ed. Max Kaase and Hans-Dieter Klingemann (Opladen, Germany: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1983), 198-221.
"Politiker unter sich am Bildschirm: Die Konfrontation von Personen und Sachthemen in den Fernsehdiskussionen 1972-1980" (with Kendall L. Baker), in
Wahlen und Politisches System, ed. Max Kaase and Hans-Dieter Klingemann (Opladen, Germany: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1983), 600-622.
"Krieg und Regierungspopularität: Der Fall der Falklands," in
Prozessforschung in den Sozial- wissenschaften, ed. Friedhelm Meier. Stuttgart and New York: Fischer Verlag, 1988, 1-22.
"Regierungspopularität auf Kredit: Wirtschaftsbilanz, Wende und Wählerwille," (with Christian Goergen) in
Wahlen und Wähler, ed. Max Kaase and Hans-Dieter Klingemann. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1990, 345-375.
"Astronomia o Astrologia? Predicciendo Elecciones en Estados Unidos," in
Future Days: Modelos de Prospectiva Electoral, ed. Antonia Alaminos (Alicante: Universidad de Alicante, 1994), 111-142.
"Wiedervereinigung und Wahlentscheidung," in
Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1990, ed. Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Max Kaase, Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1994, 452-471.
"Hohe Politik und Wahlen: die 'Deutsche Frage' 1990," in
Die deutsche Gesellschaft in vergleichender Perspektive: Festschrift für Erwin K. Scheuch zum 65. Geburtstag, ed. Karl-Heinz Reuband, Franz-Urban Pappi, and Heiner Best, Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1995, 65-83.
"Wählerdynamik und Wahlprognosen: Ein Deutsch-Amerikanischer Vergleich," in
Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1994, ed. Max Kaase and Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1998, 645-669.
“Soll und Haben: Die deutsche Wählerschaft rechnet mit den Parteien ab” (with Thomas Gschwend), in
50 Jahre Empirische Sozialforschung in Deutschland, ed. Markus Klein et al., Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2000, 389-409.
“Wenn am nächsten Sonntag …: Ein Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen” (with Thomas Gschwend), in
Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1998, ed. Max Kaase and Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2001, 471-500.
“Politbarometer und Wahlprognosen: Die Kanzlerfrage” (with Thomas Gschwend), in Festschrift für Dieter Roth, ed. Andreas Wüst. Leverkusen: Leske + Budrich, 2003, 109-123.
“Mit Rot-Grün ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe” (mit Thomas Gschwend), in
Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen zur Bundestagswahl 2002, ed. Jürgen W. Falter, Oscar Gabriel und Berhard Wessels, Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2005, 371-387.
„Mission Accomplished: Die Wiederwahl von George W. Bush,“
Politische Vierteljahresschrift,46 (2005), 3-13.
„Prognosemodell auf dem Prufstand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005“ (with Thomas Gschwend),
Politische Vierteljahresschrift,46 (2005), 682-688.
„Wie es euch gefaellt: Politische Akteure in den USA und ihr Publikum,“ in
Politik—Wissenschaft—Medien: Festschrift fuer Juergen W. Falter zum 65, Geburtstag, ed. Hann Kaspa, Harald Schoen, Siegfried Schumann und Juergen R. Winkler, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag fuer Sozialwissenschaften, 2009, 145-157.
„Die Parteien in der amerikanischen Waehlerschaft,“ in Parteiendemokratie in der Bewaehrung:
Festschrift fuer Karl Schmitt zum 65, Geburtstag, ed. Antonius Liedhegener und Torsten Oppelland, Baden-Baden:Nomos, 2009, 381-398.
Conference Participation and Invited Lectures (Last 10 years)
“In the Long Run: Stability and Change in U.S. Elections” (with Suzanne Robbins), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 14-17, 1999.
“Divided Government and Economic Voting,” annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, Sept. 2-5, 1999; revised version presented at the Conference on
Institutions and Economic Voting, Trondheim, Norway, April 9-12, 2000.
“A Forecast for the Millennium: The Presidential Vote 2000,” Meeting of the Board of the Foreign Policy Association, New York, Oct. 19, 1999.
“Die nächste Wahl: Ein multivariates Prognosemodell” (with Thomas Gschwend), Conference on
50 Years of German Electoral Research, University of Cologne, Nov. 18-20, 1999.
“The Electoral Appeal of Thatcher Economics,” International Conference on
The Thatcher Years: The Rebirth of Liberty? at Hofstra University, March 27-28, 2000.
“Primary Colors: A Forecast of the 2000 Presidential Election,” annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, Aug. 31- Sep.3, 2000.
“Conservative Prospects in the U.S., A Symposium on the
Future of Center-Right Parties, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA, Sep. 21-24, 2000.
“Bush v. Gore: Where Was the Economy?” annual meeting of the Public Choice Society, San Antonio, March 9-11, 2001; revised versions presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, Aug. 30-Sep. 2, 2001; at the Conference on the
Vitality of Electoral Democracy, Mershon Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, March 7-10, 2002, and at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 3-6, 2003.
“Estimating the Demand for Election News,” (with Shanto Iyengar), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 2002.
“If the Election were next Sunday…: A Forecast of the 2002 Bundestag Election,” (with Thomas Gschwend), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 2002; also at the Conference on
Electoral Politics, Columbia University, Oct. 18-19, 2002; and at the Conference on the
German Election 2002, Center for Democracy, University of California at Irvine, Laguna Beach, Jan 10-12, 2003.
“Wag the Dog: Congressional Elections and Political Change,” (with Jerrold Rusk), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 2003.
“A Forecast of the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election,” at invitation by Ajou University, Seoul, Korea, December 1-5, 2003; revised versions at annual AAPOR/WAPOR conference, Phoenix, Arizona, May 11-16, 2004, annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 15-18, 2004, and annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 2004; also as the Pi Sigma Alpha Lecture at the University of Buffalo, March 2004, at the Taft Center, University of Cincinnati, October 2004, and at the conference of the Long Island Council for the Social Studies, October 2004.
“Partisanship and Competition in American Elections, 1824-2002,” (with Jerrold Rusk), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 15-18, 2004.
“Present before the Past: Motivated Reasoning and Retrospective Judgments,” (with Milton Lodge and Sanser Yener), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 15-18, 2004.
“The Electoral Universe: Cycles and Equilibrium,” invited lecture, University of Houston, February 11, 2005.
“White House or Capitol? The Focus of Electoral Realignments,” (with Jerrold Rusk), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 7-10, 2005.
“The Presidential Primaries Model,” 25th International Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio, Texas, June 12-15, 2005.
“Electoral Myth and Reality: Realignments in American Politics,” (with Jerrold Rusk), annual
meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, Sept. 1-4, 2005.
“Pain or Glory? War and Electoral Choice,” (with Andrew Sidman), invited presentation at the conference,
The Wartime Election of 2004, The Mershon Center, Ohio State University, January 12-15, 2006.
“Voting Rurnout: The American Voter Revisited,” annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 20-23, 2006.
“The Development of Party Identification: The American Voter Revisited,” annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, Aug. 31- Sept. 3, 2006.
“Perceptions of the Parties and Candidates: The American Voter Revisited,” annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, Jan. 3-6, 2007.
“Wartime Presidents: Battle Casualties and Popular Support,” (with Andrew Sidman), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 12-15, 2007.
“Incumbency and Realignment: Partisan Change in House Elections,” (with Scott Basinger), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 12-15, 2007.
“Roundtable: The American Voter Revisited,” (panelist), annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 12-15, 2007.
“The Demand for Future Policy Action: The Wartime Experience,” (with Holly Goerdel and Andrew Sidman), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2007.
“Southern Comfort: Incumbency and Realignment in Congress,” (with Scott Basinger), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2007.
“Roundtable: The American Voter Revisited,” (panelist), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2007.
“Time for a Change? Forecasting the 2008 Election,” annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 3-6, 2008; updated versions at annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, New Orleans, May 13-15, 2008; and at annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, Aug. 28-31, 2008.
“From Eisenhower to Bush: Perceptions of Candidates and Parties,” Conference on
The American Voter Revisited, University of Iowa, Iowa City, April 8-10, 2008
“Roundtable: The American Voter Revisited,” (Chair and panelist), annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, New Orleans, May 13-15, 2008.
“The Chancellor Model: Forecasting German National Elections,” (with Thomas Gschwend), the 28th International Symposium on Forecasting,Nice, France, June 22-25, 2008.
“War and Politics: The 1944 Election,” (with Victor Lange and Michael Morzenti), annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, Aug. 28-31, 2008.
“Election Forecasters Face Reality: How Well Did Their Models Fit the 2008 Election?” (Chair and panelist), 80th annual conference of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, Jan. 8-10, 2009.
etc. etc.
