UFN 93 - Barnett vs Arlovski - Germany

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Joseph Budden said:
Idk about keep a good pace. After round 1 he was noticeably slowed.

Horrible match up for him imo. Barring a first round overhand not much he can do to Bader. Won't score tds, can't outstrike Bader. Stylistic nightmare for him imo
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But Bader needs to close the distance and Latifi is really good at timing guys coming in. I played Latifi ML and Latifi KO medium size.
 
Shoulder said:
But Bader needs to close the distance and Latifi is really good at timing guys coming in. I played Latifi ML and Latifi KO medium size.
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Not really, he can honestly just jab and leg kick from the outside all fight, like against Hashad.
 
Shoulder said:
But Bader needs to close the distance and Latifi is really good at timing guys coming in. I played Latifi ML and Latifi KO medium size.
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He doesn't need to. Bader has a really good jab and low kick. He stood on the outside with Rashad all fight and picked him apart from that range.

EDIT beaten to it by ballsack ^^
 
@Oblivian @iGnP

For some reason I don't think so highly of josh barnett. N. People(@Hughesjm1230) thought I was crazy when I picked Browne over him and said i favored browne. I've bet on him against Roy and Ben. I was pissed when he was subbed haha.

He's proved me wrong a bunch but I'm on AA. I think this fights a pick 'em.
Josh usually struggles when he can't take down someone or bully them in the clinch. AA has the better cardio and boxing imo. His chin is bad and he can be taken down but I like him as a dog @ +140.

If AA can survives early I think he picks him apart and possibly finishes him later.
 
Oblivian said:
I don't feel strongly on this fight, or honestly this entire card, at all. I'd probably cap Barnett closer to -200 though. FWIW, I was the right side in Arlovski's last five fights so it's not like I doubt him in situations a ton. I liked him vs. Browne and Bigfoot where he was a steeper underdog. I just think this is one where he should clearly be the dog because his only real advantage is better technique with his hands. Just my two cents.
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I dont think he even has that. Barnetts boxing technique is very good, classic and goes to the body very well, also quite a versatile jab. Arlovski is pretty much just a very powerful right hand. What Arlovski has on Barnett though, is speed and athletisim, which Barnett has struggled with mightily in his career so far, from Cormier, all the way back to Crocop. Don't get me wrong, I'm not comparing current Arlovski to Prime CC and Corm, but the similarities are there.
Arlovski also possesses excellent takedown defense. These attributes could spell trouble for Barnett. That said, if Barnett can get a fight that takes place mostly up against the cage, he will most def have the ability to win it.

On Arlovski for +160, might switch if the price keep dropping.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Can anyone think of a reason not to bet my entire bankroll on Gus by KO +170? Seems BY FAR the most likely outcome. Jan was getting bulldozed a bit by fucking Igor Pokrajac
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Take itd i got burnt yday betting pettis ko line
 
Tebowned said:
@Oblivian @iGnP

For some reason I don't think so highly of josh barnett. N. People(@Hughesjm1230) thought I was crazy when I picked Browne over him and said i favored browne. I've bet on him against Roy and Ben. I was pissed when he was subbed haha.

He's proved me wrong a bunch but I'm on AA. I think this fights a pick 'em.
Josh usually struggles when he can't take down someone or bully them in the clinch. AA has the better cardio and boxing imo. His chin is bad and he can be taken down but I like him as a dog @ +140.

If AA can survives early I think he picks him apart and possibly finishes him later.
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i mirror your opinions, but im not gonna go crazy on this fight because of AA's chin and the big advantage Barnett has in the clinch. but yeah i think AA is very capable of finishing ITD
 
Ballsaque said:
I dont think he even has that. Barnetts boxing technique is very good, classic and goes to the body very well, also quite a versatile jab. Arlovski is pretty much just a very powerful right hand. What Arlovski has on Barnett though, is speed and athletisim, which Barnett has struggled with mightily in his career so far, from Cormier, all the way back to Crocop. Don't get me wrong, I'm not comparing current Arlovski to Prime CC and Corm, but the similarities are there.
Arlovski also possesses excellent takedown defense. These attributes could spell trouble for Barnett. That said, if Barnett can get a fight that takes place mostly up against the cage, he will most def have the ability to win it.

On Arlovski for +160, might switch if the price keep dropping.
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I wouldn't say Arlovski has good takedown defense, when he fought any wrestlers, Mir took him down and was doing well in standing.Even if Arlovski will win striking I think he will get knocked out at some point, if not he may get submitted or pounded out
Also dorty boxing and knees may be a factor
 
I like hein as parlay fodder. Bang bangs but i think he only has a punchers chance here. He always slows due to his style and his td defence is shocking. I really hope hein is approaching this fight with a similar gameplan to the dober fight where he utilised his excellent td's. I can understand why he hasnt used his td's hardly since that fight but due to Bangs power and terrible td defence he will surely be gameplanning to ground bang. He will have a big advantage on the mat too.
 
michi972 said:
I wouldn't say Arlovski has good takedown defense, when he fought any wrestlers, Mir took him down and was doing well in standing.Even if Arlovski will win striking I think he will get knocked out at some point, if not he may get submitted or pounded out
Also dorty boxing and knees may be a factor
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He does have better takedown defense than he displayed in that fight. Like in the high 80% percentage wise. He is regressing though.
 
Aight I've watched all the tape I need

5 units on Veronica Macedo @ +200

Let's get it.
 
Wallhead down to -120 if he gets to +100 think i will bite. Watched two of Ayari's last three fights including lebout and hes def nothing special. But its hard to judge his tdd and therefore ground game so thats why im a bit reluctant. I favour Wallhead as Wallhead can ko you while Ayari is not a big puncher. Ayari also seems content to just stand with you so im assuming he wont try to take wallhead down going by his last two fights. I can only see Ayari winning a dec but i can see Wallhead winning by ko dec or even sub. Wallhead was dominating danny roberts via grapping before being knocked out and in his last fight he totally dominated when he took a decent russian fighter down. Wallhead can be a bit passive so my concern is if he doesnt find that fight ending blow he could be outpointed but ayari does not have very high output either. Besides lebout ayari has fought noone while wallheads been in there with some good fighterd. So yeah i like wallhead here but hard to be overly confident as i dont have a full understanding of ayari's complete skill set. Wallhead ko line will be getting hit
 
Brick Top said:
Aight I've watched all the tape I need

5 units on Veronica Macedo @ +200

Let's get it.
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Can you put into words at least briefly what you saw that made you bet the underdog here?
 
Ballsaque said:
He does have better takedown defense than he displayed in that fight. Like in the high 80% percentage wise. He is regressing though.
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but fought mainly strikers, got takedown by basic trips against Schaub, Overeem
 
Shoulder said:
I'm on the AA train, I think he is way better on the feet and smart enough to stay on the outside and don't let Josh clinch up. Josh hasn't really looked good last years and post USADA-Barnett is not someone I would put money on.
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Andrei Arlovski's train was derailed when he visited both Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem at the KO Corral and left only with his show-money and a couple of bloody Reebok™ t-shirts.
 
JimGunn said:
Can you put into words at least briefly what you saw that made you bet the underdog here?
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Pros
- Macedo is a brown belt, huge advantage over Smith on the ground who's just a blue belt. Smith is in trouble if it hits the ground. Even if Smith wrestles I guarantee Macedo will sweep her, legit sub threat too
- Macedo stays busy and has better cardio
- Macedo is strong in the clinch, does good work against the cage
- Macedo is a much better striker than Smith. Smith is really slow, Macedo will have a big speed advantage
- Smith is overrated. She clearly lost the Reneau fight and nearly got KO'd in the first. No notable wins, doesn't deserve the chalk

Cons
- Smith is much bigger
- UFC jitters
- Significant difference in level of competition fought and experience
 
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