UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

Will never bet on Perry with the IQ he showed against Cerrone, but Luque is definitely knockoutable...
 
Schev was TKO'ed by Carmouche early in her career if I recall correctly. I think she looks to avenge that loss. I like the FDNGTD prop.

Luque fight on paper seems like a slugfest but both men have been durable in big fights before and both know what power is coming at them. I wouldn't be surprised to see a feeling out process round 1 and then maybe some banging after round 2. I like the over 1.5 here.

Viana was all the hype before she lost to Aldrich and for good reason. She should bounce back here.

GL all.
 
Hardy mentioned on one of the weigh in vids he saw Tecia Torres drilling lots of bodylock stuff when he was hanging out backstage or whatever. I think this a pretty easy win for her TBH as Rodriguez's TDD and ground game are very questionable. Torres tried that game vs a better version of Rodriguez already, Joanna, and did better than most. Joanna is one of the hardest fighters to take down and keep down in MMA, against Rodriguez I expect that strat to work very easily (incidentally Tecia has trained at ATT this camp, with Joanna appearing in some of the group shots). I talked myself into going pretty big on her in the end...
 
TrueAscension said:
Schev was TKO'ed by Carmouche early in her career if I recall correctly. I think she looks to avenge that loss. I like the FDNGTD prop.

Luque fight on paper seems like a slugfest but both men have been durable in big fights before and both know what power is coming at them. I wouldn't be surprised to see a feeling out process round 1 and then maybe some banging after round 2. I like the over 1.5 here.

Viana was all the hype before she lost to Aldrich and for good reason. She should bounce back here.

GL all.
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Wasn't that a doctor stoppage because of a cut?

{<huh}
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Wasn't that a doctor stoppage because of a cut?

{<huh}
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Wouldn't that go down as a TKO doctor stoppage though?

I don't think anyone really knows what happened just that doctor stoppage thing is what the internet youtube guys have been saying
 
ApplesVild said:
Wouldn't that go down as a TKO doctor stoppage though?

I don't think anyone really knows what happened just that doctor stoppage thing is what the internet youtube guys have been saying
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Given their styles and the fact Shev had a plethora of MT experience going in, I think it would be safe to assume she probably got cut open by an elbow on the ground or something. Idk I feel like some people are overstating that. Like liz did this to her...

Rose-Namajunas-def-Joanna-Jedrzejczyk-via-KO-Punches.gif


Shout out to my girl Thug Rose. Rip.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Piechota was completely dominant for his first 2.5 UFC fights before gassing out in round 3 vs Meerschaert. And Meerschaert isn't a bad gatekeeper, beat Giles, deserved the win vs Holland. He has only been dominated by rising contenders Santos + Hermansson.

Piechota is well rounded, can finish on the ground or standing up. Seems like a pretty good prospect if he just learns to manage his cardio better, and he has had over a year off to regroup and improve since the GM3 fight.

Vieira OTOH is super green, has been training MMA for only 3 years. Looks like he cannot strike at all, and while his wrestling is improving it's still massively unproven vs any real opponent. Nemchinov was 10-0 but fought suspect competition, and now Piechota is a huge step up in competition.

I can't fathom laying juice on Vieira. It's questionable whether he can take Piechota down and hold him down. Against Jacob Holyman-Tague he needed like 5 takedowns bc the guy kept getting up, and he had recently been subbed by this scrub so his grappling D is almost certainly bad: https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/48380-darcy-vendy

And every minute standing up may be painful for Vieira. Piechota is going to be the better striker, likely by a huge margin, and he should be a huge KO threat. If there is any turbulence whatsoever getting this to the ground, Vieira bettors are going to have sweaty palms.

I personally believe Piechota is the better prospect who is more developed as a complete MMA fighter, and should be the correct fave this fight. Everybody laying juice on Vieira is getting drunk on extremely expensive hype. He is massively unproven, and BJJ isn't a good base if it doesn't come with striking and wrestling.

Sure Piechota may gas again, or maybe this time he doesn't or maybe he gets a 1 minute KO and it doesn't matter. Regardless I don't see any clear reason to favor Vieira outside of hype, this is my fave bet this week.
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Piechota gasses in Round 2 (arguably at the very end of Round 1) against GM3. It never made it to Round 3. He was also on his way to being 10-8’d in Round 2, getting absolutely slobberknocked by Gerald Meerschaert lol, before he was mercifully choked unconscious.

GM3 let’s Oskar take him down in Round 1 and aside from dancing around on top, does nothing. He also gets swept very easily (at least twice iirc). The ref eventually stands it up due to inactivity. In the final minute Oskar gets a knockdown, full mount, a deep RNC and...ends up swept, then on bottom, turtled, getting smashed by knees to his ribs, well on his way to gassing. Amateur hour.

The first TD attempt from GM3 comes midway through R2 and is a terrible, shoulder-high shot that he makes a mess of. He secures side control from that! And how does Oskar pop up? By turning over to his knees and exposing his back. Against Vieira the fight is done right there. The fight was done against GM3 there too but he decides to utterly annihilate Oskar for 2 full minutes first.

Oskar is extremely flawed, if not downright bad. His striking was ok in R1 against GM3 but once he got tired it became just awful. Single looping shots with no power.

I do agree, in mma, Rodolfo is unproven, no argument. But his TDs and wrestling are not merely improving, as you say, they are actually quite good. His cardio seems to be alright too. Then he has world class bjj. That will be more than enough against a guy who is willingly going to grapple before getting tired and who becomes a nail once he is tired.

Vieira is being benchmarked. He’s being given a willing, poor grappler, with mediocre striking, who has exposed his gas tank, and has been viciously beaten and subbed already by an equally flawed mid-tier UFC fighter.


TL;DR
Re: Piechota v Vieira
The betting line is correct as it currently sits. No play on either guy is probably the smart one. However, I'm not smart. I’m going with the anaconda.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Given their styles and the fact Shev had a plethora of MT experience going in, I think it would be safe to assume she probably got cut open by an elbow on the ground or something. Idk I feel like some people are overstating that. Like liz did this to her...

Rose-Namajunas-def-Joanna-Jedrzejczyk-via-KO-Punches.gif


Shout out to my girl Thug Rose. Rip.
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Valentina says she got hit by an upkick which opened a cut:

Carmouche beat Shevchenko by second-round TKO (retirement). In Round 2, the fighters went to the ground, and I Carmouche caught Shevchenko an up-kick. It sliced her eye wide open and Shevchenko’s eye wouldn’t stop bleeding. She wasn’t able to answer the bell for the next round. Shevchenko wanted to continue but the physician opposed.
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https://www.mmaweekly.com/ufc-on-espn-14-shevchenko-vs-carmouche-2-odds-preview-picks
 
Soccer Steve said:
I do agree, in mma, Rodolfo is unproven, no argument. But his TDs and wrestling are not merely improving, as you say, they are actually quite good. His cardio seems to be alright too. Then he has world class bjj. That will be more than enough against a guy who is willingly going to grapple before getting tired and who becomes a nail once he is tired.
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These are some big assumptions here. There is zero concrete evidence that Vieira's takedowns are good. Maybe they are mediocre and his past opponents have just had really bad takedown defense as low tier MMA fighters often do.

Also wouldn't assume that Piechota, who has KO power, is going to willfully grapple the BJJ specialist. He doesn't seem that dumb.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
These are some big assumptions here. There is zero concrete evidence that Vieira's takedowns are good. Maybe they are mediocre and his past opponents have just had really bad takedown defense as low tier MMA fighters often do.

Also wouldn't assume that Piechota, who has KO power, is going to willfully grapple the BJJ specialist. He doesn't seem that dumb.
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Oskar Piechota is a legit blackbelt too he was on adcc in abu dhabi
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
These are some big assumptions here. There is zero concrete evidence that Vieira's takedowns are good. Maybe they are mediocre and his past opponents have just had really bad takedown defense as low tier MMA fighters often do.

Also wouldn't assume that Piechota, who has KO power, is going to willfully grapple the BJJ specialist. He doesn't seem that dumb.
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I wouldn’t say “zero evidence”. But I’m not going to die on the low tier, regional fight hill.

It’s funny because when I was watching Oskar I found myself thinking “this guy is kinda dumb”. Haha. And he willingly grappled with gm3, a man who makes no secret about living or dying by the sub. I don’t think Piechota can resist the urge in the moment.

We see it differently. That’s good.
 
Piechota is lowkey a fraud but Vieira is clearly nervous as fuck which made me decide to not bet on this fight.
 
ill800 said:
The only thing macedo should be favored in is instathotting

And you got me mixed up with someone else. I’m not even betting 5k an event
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Ok well whatever ur betting its more then 10$ u should do our draaftkings event
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Piechota was completely dominant for his first 2.5 UFC fights before gassing out in round 3 vs Meerschaert. And Meerschaert isn't a bad gatekeeper, beat Giles, deserved the win vs Holland. He has only been dominated by rising contenders Santos + Hermansson.

Piechota is well rounded, can finish on the ground or standing up. Seems like a pretty good prospect if he just learns to manage his cardio better, and he has had over a year off to regroup and improve since the GM3 fight.

Vieira OTOH is super green, has been training MMA for only 3 years. Looks like he cannot strike at all, and while his wrestling is improving it's still massively unproven vs any real opponent. Nemchinov was 10-0 but fought suspect competition, and now Piechota is a huge step up in competition.

I can't fathom laying juice on Vieira. It's questionable whether he can take Piechota down and hold him down. Against Jacob Holyman-Tague he needed like 5 takedowns bc the guy kept getting up, and he had recently been subbed by this scrub so his grappling D is almost certainly bad: https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/48380-darcy-vendy

And every minute standing up may be painful for Vieira. Piechota is going to be the better striker, likely by a huge margin, and he should be a huge KO threat. If there is any turbulence whatsoever getting this to the ground, Vieira bettors are going to have sweaty palms.

I personally believe Piechota is the better prospect who is more developed as a complete MMA fighter, and should be the correct fave this fight. Everybody laying juice on Vieira is getting drunk on extremely expensive hype. He is massively unproven, and BJJ isn't a good base if it doesn't come with striking and wrestling.

Sure Piechota may gas again, or maybe this time he doesn't or maybe he gets a 1 minute KO and it doesn't matter. Regardless I don't see any clear reason to favor Vieira outside of hype, this is my fave bet this week.
Click to expand...
Also, fwiw, Piechota had shoulder surgery during this layoff.
 
TrueAscension said:
Viana was all the hype before she lost to Aldrich and for good reason. She should bounce back here.

GL all.
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Do you think she gets it done inside the distance? I do... I can see a strikes stoppage or a sub. Would make a decent little prop hit at +225...

 
I was big on Piechota before the GM3 fight, where I heavily bet him. I think we saw his ceiling in that contest, however. He certainly doesn't appear to be a 3 round fighter.
 
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