UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II Official Bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 15, 2019.

  1. And

    And Orange Belt

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    $125 Not Shevchenko ITD +120 to win 150
    $30 Carmouche ML +775 to win 232.5

    $250 Garagorri ML +130 to win 325

    $500 Oezdemir ML -125 to win 400

    $125 Moffett ML +170 to win 212.5

    $118 Kunchenko ML -118 to win 100

    $520 Torres ML -130 to win 400
    $150 Torres (SC=NA) +106 to win 159
    $50 Torres ITD +800 to win 400

    $210 Bontorin ML -105 to win 200

    $200 Gutierrez ML +125 to win 250
     
    GigaOuts likes this.
  2. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    UFC on ESPN+ 14 Risk $5,334.00

    Valentina Shevchenko -5½ points (-610) vs Liz Carmouche $610.00 for $100.00
    Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 2 (-425) $425.00 for $100.00
    Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 3 (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
    Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche Over 3½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+1100) $25.00 for $275.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1800) $25.00 for $450.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+235) $100.00 for $235.00

    Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-172) $172.00 for $100.00
    Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00

    Luiz Garagorri vs Humberto Bandenay: No Bet

    Volkan Oezdemir (-155) vs Ilir Latifi $310.00 for $200.00
    Volkan Oezdemir wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+162) $75.00 for $121.50

    Rodolfo Vieira wins by submission (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
    Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 1 (+175) $75.00 for $131.25
    Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 2 (+425) $40.00 for $170.00
    Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 3 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00
    Oskar Piechota wins in round 2 (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
    Oskar Piechota wins in round 3 (+1800) $50.00 for $900.00
    Rodolfo Vieira/Oskar Piechota won't go 3 round distance (-400) $400.00 for $100.00

    Enrique Barzola (-130) vs Bobby Moffet $260.00 for $200.00

    Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00
    Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00
    Alexey Kunchenko wins by TKO/KO (+355) $50.00 for $177.50
    Alexey Kunchenko wins in round 3 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00

    Ciryl Gane/Raphael Pessoa Under 1½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00

    Tecia Torres (-145) vs Marina Rodriguez $362.50 for $250.00
    Tecia Torres wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
    Tecia Torres wins by 3 round decision (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

    Raulian Paiva (+101) vs Rogerio Bontorin $100.00 for $101.00

    Geraldo de Freitas vs Chris Gutierrez: No Bet

    Rodrigo Vargas vs Alex Da Silva: No Bet

    Polyana Viana (+123) vs Veronica Macedo $100.00 for $123.00
    Polyana Viana wins inside distance (+235) $40.00 for $94.00

    Fights to go distance over 4½ (-513) $256.50 for $50.00
    Fights to go distance over 5½ (-245) $98.00 for $40.00
    Fights to go distance over 6½ (+147) $30.00 for $44.10
    Fights to go distance over 7½ (+380) $25.00 for $95.00
    Fights to go distance over 8½ (+1069) $15.00 for $160.35
    Fights to go distance over 9½ (+3325) $7.00 for $232.75
    Fights to go distance over 10½ (+16600) $3.00 for $498.00
     
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  3. hugdeeznuts

    hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

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    How does that make you feel?
    Viana
    Da Silva/Shevchenko/Gane
    De Freitas
    Bontorin
    Torres by dec
    Burns
    Moffett
    Rodolfo by sub
    Volkan
    Garagorri
    Luque/Shevchenko
     
  4. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    Really mispredicted line movement for Oezdemir-Latifi, actually the first fight I analyzed. Might have to go lighter on it now, ugh. Also will play a prop of some kind for the main event. For now though,

    2.4u on Macedo-Viana GTD at -150
    1.9u on Rodriguez at an average of +136
    1u on Kunchenko at -130
    0.5u on Pessoa at +380
     
  5. HeadsUpPoker

    HeadsUpPoker Orange Belt

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    Studied tape last minute for this one, primarily to be ready for livebetting. Did not feel confident in prebetting and did not have a lot of time.

    1u Silva ITD at 2.09 to profit 1.09u

    0.33u Barzola NSC at 3.250 to profit 0.74u
    1u Barzola ML at 1.8 to profit 0.8u

    0.2u on Gane by submission at 23.00 to profit 4.4u
    0.33u on Gane Round 1 at 2.00 to profit 0.33u
    1u on Gane ITD at 1.38 to profit 0.38u

    1u on Rodriguez NSC at 2.00 to profit 1u
     
  6. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Black Belt

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    Good call on the Gane sub
     
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  7. EvoIXDan

    EvoIXDan Purple Belt

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    1 U on betany
    1 U on Volkan
    1 U on Konchenko
    1 U on Luque
    1 U on Luque ITD
     
  8. 325underdog

    325underdog White Belt

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  9. Bastaille

    Bastaille White Belt

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    +150$ lolll but livebetting has been amazing tonight. Won a lot on garagorri decision, oezdemir and Rodriguez.
     
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  10. HeadsUpPoker

    HeadsUpPoker Orange Belt

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    Total loss/profit: +4.91u

    In a good streak right now. Total risk was 4.86u, so a really good prebetting event. I only regret not hitting Burns as i was leaning towards him very early on, but got swayed away after reading some confident bettors. Also a good event for livebetting. Hope everyone had a good event.
     
  11. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Purple Belt

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    2.8u, somehow, should have just lb tonight went up a lot on that while pre-fight was pretty bad. Spent most of the night just hedging live but the last 3 fights pulled got me a bit of profit.
     
  12. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    Added 3u on Oezdemir at -170 and 0.5u on Shevchenko ITD at +109. I also live-bet 0.8u on Moffet after round 1 at +130 and 0.8u on Perry after round 2 at +110. Really happy with both, even now, but alas, both lost, for a -1.9u night.

    No regrets about any of my plays. In fact, I would have gone much, much heavier on Macedo-Viana GTD, my only big loss, if not for a general caveat about betting props on low-level WMMA too heavily.

    Amusingly, I set a personal record tonight for most amount of fights on a card pre-bet (6) and total including live-bets. (8)
     
  13. And

    And Orange Belt

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    $125 Not Shevchenko ITD +120 to win 150
    $30 Carmouche ML +775 to win 232.5

    $250 Garagorri ML +130 to win 325

    $500 Oezdemir ML -125 to win 400

    $125 Moffett ML +170 to win 212.5

    $118 Kunchenko ML -118 to win 100

    $520 Torres ML -130 to win 400
    $150 Torres (SC=NA) +106 to win 159
    $50 Torres ITD +800 to win 400

    $210 Bontorin ML -105 to win 200

    $200 Gutierrez ML +125 to win 250

    Result: +$492
     
  14. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Black Belt

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    +.56u

    <GinJuice>

    Brb going to sizzler.
     
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  15. Cockadoodle

    Cockadoodle Orange Belt

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    Listed +6u Very nearly a great evening, lost the Moffett and Perry splits and 30seconds away from Oz Latifi starts r3.
    Also made a couple units live betting on Garragori and Perry FGTD.
    Happy days hope everyone killed it.
     
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  16. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    +0.55 on pre-fight bets with one parlay left. I’m okay with it. These cards are tough. Won decently on live bets (around 1 million units but got robbed in the Moffett & De Freitas fights imo). Kunchenko was disappointing because he was winning round 2 until the takedown. Other judges and my De Freitas parlay cashes but that’s part of the game.


    4D9B3BD6-999A-4F4A-BE46-B3B08BFCC8E3.jpeg

    64E8B13D-B581-488F-AFF4-CA2E40C058D8.jpeg

    Had Marina live twice. Once by decision and once straight. Also blindly bet Shevchenko FGTD lol but lost on Moffett.
     
  17. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    .4U + lol
     
  18. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Shevchenko-Carmouche Over 3.5 Rounds - 5u for 4.9u
    Latifi Submission - 0.5u for 3.5u
    Luque Submission - 0.5u for 1.6u
    Vieira ML - 3u for 1.55u
    Vieira Submission - 3u for 4.24u
    Kunchenko ML - 3u for 2.4u
    Kunchenko Round 3 - 0.25 for 3u
    Moffett ML - 0u for 0.75u
    Over 2.5 Rounds - 1.04u for 0.37u
    Torres Decision - 2.5u for 2.5u
    Torres Submission - 0.5u for 5u
    deFreitas ML - 2u for 1.38u
    deFreitas-Gutierrez FGTD - 3u for 1.76u
    Paiva ML - 0u for 0.1u
    Fights to go distance Over:
    5.5 - 4u for 2.11u
    6.5 - 2u for 2.8u
    7.5 - 0.5u for 1.8u
    8.5 - 0.25u for 2.55u
    9.5 - 0.25u for 7.81u
    10.5 - 0.125u for 19.25u
    Sheva-Liz O3.5 + Barz-Moff O2.5 + Event O5.5 + Luque - 1u for 4.53u


    14.17u

    Was really uneasy with how I played this but it worked. If not for a Paiva cut and maybe Oz gassing+Latifi surviving one more round, I'm possibly 10u higher on the event props. Meh, shoulda-woulda-coulda. Been a great last few events.
     
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  19. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    After a disastrous start on the prelims with Tecia Torres and Alexey Kunchenko and going deep in a hole I picked the right fights to add more bets on and then the main event and event props helped me get deep into the black. So I have to be happy with that and 10.02 units profit on the balance.

    UFC on ESPN+ 14 Results
    Risk $5,334.00

    Valentina Shevchenko -5½ points (-610) vs Liz Carmouche $610.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 2 (-425) $425.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 3 (-175) $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche Over 3½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00= $102.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00= -$30.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+1100) $25.00 for $275.00= -$25.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1800) $25.00 for $450.00= -$25.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+235) $100.00 for $235.00= $235.00

    Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-172) $172.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-172) $258.00 for $150.00= $150.00
    Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-175) $350.00 for $200.00= $200.00
    Live In-Play Fighting Mike Perry (+120) vs Vicente Luque $100.00 for $120.00= -$100.00
    Live In-Play Fighting Mike Perry (+150) vs Vicente Luque $100.00 for $150.00= -$100.00

    Live In-Play Luiz Garagorri (-300) vs Humberto Bandenay $150.00 for $50.00= $50.00

    Volkan Oezdemir (-155) vs Ilir Latifi $310.00 for $200.00= $200.00
    Volkan Oezdemir (-175) vs Ilir Latifi $350.00 for $200.00= $200.00
    Volkan Oezdemir wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+162) $75.00 for $121.50= $121.50

    Rodolfo Vieira (-205) vs Oskar Piechota $820.00 for $400.00= $400.00
    Rodolfo Vieira (-205) vs Oskar Piechota $820.00 for $400.00= $400.00
    Rodolfo Vieira wins by submission (-130) $130.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 1 (+175) $75.00 for $131.25= -$75.00
    Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 2 (+425) $40.00 for $170.00= $170.00
    Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 3 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00= -$25.00
    Oskar Piechota wins in round 2 (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00= -$50.00
    Oskar Piechota wins in round 3 (+1800) $50.00 for $900.00= -$50.00
    Rodolfo Vieira/Oskar Piechota won't go 3 round distance (-400) $400.00 for $100.00= $100.00

    Enrique Barzola (-130) vs Bobby Moffet $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00

    Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00= -$325.00
    Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00= -$325.00
    Alexey Kunchenko (-135) vs Gilbert Burns $337.50 for $250.00= -$337.50
    Alexey Kunchenko wins by TKO/KO (+355) $50.00 for $177.50= -$50.00
    Alexey Kunchenko wins in round 3 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00= -$15.00

    Ciryl Gane/Raphael Pessoa Under 1½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00= $100.00

    Tecia Torres (-145) vs Marina Rodriguez $362.50 for $250.00= -$362.50
    Tecia Torres wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00= -$50.00
    Tecia Torres wins by 3 round decision (+105) $100.00 for $105.00= -$100.00

    Raulian Paiva (+101) vs Rogerio Bontorin $100.00 for $101.00= -$100.00

    Geraldo De Freitas (-145) vs Chris Gutierrez $145.00 for $100.00= -$145.00

    Rodrigo Vargas vs Alex Da Silva: No Bet

    Polyana Viana (+123) vs Veronica Macedo $100.00 for $123.00= -$100.00
    Polyana Viana wins inside distance (+235) $40.00 for $94.00= -$40.00

    Fights to go distance over 4½ (-513) $256.50 for $50.00= $50.00
    Fights to go distance over 5½ (-245) $98.00 for $40.00= $40.00
    Fights to go distance over 6½ (+147) $30.00 for $44.10= $44.10
    Fights to go distance over 7½ (+380) $25.00 for $95.00= $95.00
    Fights to go distance over 8½ (+1069) $15.00 for $160.35= -$15.00
    Fights to go distance over 9½ (+3325) $7.00 for $232.75= -$7.00
    Fights to go distance over 10½ (+16600) $3.00 for $498.00= -$3.00
    -----

    Total Profit= $1,002.60
     
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  20. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Black Belt

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    I didn't know you could parlay event props. I tried the other week with o9.5 but got errors on 5d.
     

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