UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II Official Bets

$125 Not Shevchenko ITD +120 to win 150
$30 Carmouche ML +775 to win 232.5

$250 Garagorri ML +130 to win 325

$500 Oezdemir ML -125 to win 400

$125 Moffett ML +170 to win 212.5

$118 Kunchenko ML -118 to win 100

$520 Torres ML -130 to win 400
$150 Torres (SC=NA) +106 to win 159
$50 Torres ITD +800 to win 400

$210 Bontorin ML -105 to win 200

$200 Gutierrez ML +125 to win 250
 
UFC on ESPN+ 14 Risk $5,334.00

Valentina Shevchenko -5½ points (-610) vs Liz Carmouche $610.00 for $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 2 (-425) $425.00 for $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 3 (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche Over 3½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+1100) $25.00 for $275.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1800) $25.00 for $450.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+235) $100.00 for $235.00

Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-172) $172.00 for $100.00
Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00

Luiz Garagorri vs Humberto Bandenay: No Bet

Volkan Oezdemir (-155) vs Ilir Latifi $310.00 for $200.00
Volkan Oezdemir wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+162) $75.00 for $121.50

Rodolfo Vieira wins by submission (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 1 (+175) $75.00 for $131.25
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 2 (+425) $40.00 for $170.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 3 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 2 (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 3 (+1800) $50.00 for $900.00
Rodolfo Vieira/Oskar Piechota won't go 3 round distance (-400) $400.00 for $100.00

Enrique Barzola (-130) vs Bobby Moffet $260.00 for $200.00

Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00
Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00
Alexey Kunchenko wins by TKO/KO (+355) $50.00 for $177.50
Alexey Kunchenko wins in round 3 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00

Ciryl Gane/Raphael Pessoa Under 1½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00

Tecia Torres (-145) vs Marina Rodriguez $362.50 for $250.00
Tecia Torres wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
Tecia Torres wins by 3 round decision (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Raulian Paiva (+101) vs Rogerio Bontorin $100.00 for $101.00

Geraldo de Freitas vs Chris Gutierrez: No Bet

Rodrigo Vargas vs Alex Da Silva: No Bet

Polyana Viana (+123) vs Veronica Macedo $100.00 for $123.00
Polyana Viana wins inside distance (+235) $40.00 for $94.00

Fights to go distance over 4½ (-513) $256.50 for $50.00
Fights to go distance over 5½ (-245) $98.00 for $40.00
Fights to go distance over 6½ (+147) $30.00 for $44.10
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+380) $25.00 for $95.00
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+1069) $15.00 for $160.35
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+3325) $7.00 for $232.75
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+16600) $3.00 for $498.00
 
Viana
Da Silva/Shevchenko/Gane
De Freitas
Bontorin
Torres by dec
Burns
Moffett
Rodolfo by sub
Volkan
Garagorri
Luque/Shevchenko
 
Really mispredicted line movement for Oezdemir-Latifi, actually the first fight I analyzed. Might have to go lighter on it now, ugh. Also will play a prop of some kind for the main event. For now though,

2.4u on Macedo-Viana GTD at -150
1.9u on Rodriguez at an average of +136
1u on Kunchenko at -130
0.5u on Pessoa at +380
 
Studied tape last minute for this one, primarily to be ready for livebetting. Did not feel confident in prebetting and did not have a lot of time.

1u Silva ITD at 2.09 to profit 1.09u

0.33u Barzola NSC at 3.250 to profit 0.74u
1u Barzola ML at 1.8 to profit 0.8u

0.2u on Gane by submission at 23.00 to profit 4.4u
0.33u on Gane Round 1 at 2.00 to profit 0.33u
1u on Gane ITD at 1.38 to profit 0.38u

1u on Rodriguez NSC at 2.00 to profit 1u
 
HeadsUpPoker said:
Studied tape last minute for this one, primarily to be ready for livebetting. Did not feel confident in prebetting and did not have a lot of time.

1u Silva ITD at 2.09 to profit 1.09u

0.33u Barzola NSC at 3.250 to profit 0.74u
1u Barzola ML at 1.8 to profit 0.8u

0.2u on Gane by submission at 23.00 to profit 4.4u
0.33u on Gane Round 1 at 2.00 to profit 0.33u
1u on Gane ITD at 1.38 to profit 0.38u

1u on Rodriguez NSC at 2.00 to profit 1u
Click to expand...

Good call on the Gane sub
 
1 U on betany
1 U on Volkan
1 U on Konchenko
1 U on Luque
1 U on Luque ITD
 
Bastaille said:
kunchenko 500$ To win 330$

Vieira 750$ to win 430$

Luque 500$ to win 220$

Edit * buying out of my Gutierrez and torres action.

No confidence at all in my plays. Wanted to play oezdemir, still waiting for better odds.
Terrible card to bet on.
Click to expand...

+150$ lolll but livebetting has been amazing tonight. Won a lot on garagorri decision, oezdemir and Rodriguez.
 
HeadsUpPoker said:
Studied tape last minute for this one, primarily to be ready for livebetting. Did not feel confident in prebetting and did not have a lot of time.

1u Silva ITD at 2.09 to profit 1.09u

0.33u Barzola NSC at 3.250 to profit 0.74u
1u Barzola ML at 1.8 to profit 0.8u

0.2u on Gane by submission at 23.00 to profit 4.4u
0.33u on Gane Round 1 at 2.00 to profit 0.33u
1u on Gane ITD at 1.38 to profit 0.38u

1u on Rodriguez NSC at 2.00 to profit 1u
Click to expand...


Total loss/profit: +4.91u

In a good streak right now. Total risk was 4.86u, so a really good prebetting event. I only regret not hitting Burns as i was leaning towards him very early on, but got swayed away after reading some confident bettors. Also a good event for livebetting. Hope everyone had a good event.
 
2.8u, somehow, should have just lb tonight went up a lot on that while pre-fight was pretty bad. Spent most of the night just hedging live but the last 3 fights pulled got me a bit of profit.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Really mispredicted line movement for Oezdemir-Latifi, actually the first fight I analyzed. Might have to go lighter on it now, ugh. Also will play a prop of some kind for the main event. For now though,

2.4u on Macedo-Viana GTD at -150
1.9u on Rodriguez at an average of +136
1u on Kunchenko at -130
0.5u on Pessoa at +380
Click to expand...

Added 3u on Oezdemir at -170 and 0.5u on Shevchenko ITD at +109. I also live-bet 0.8u on Moffet after round 1 at +130 and 0.8u on Perry after round 2 at +110. Really happy with both, even now, but alas, both lost, for a -1.9u night.

No regrets about any of my plays. In fact, I would have gone much, much heavier on Macedo-Viana GTD, my only big loss, if not for a general caveat about betting props on low-level WMMA too heavily.

Amusingly, I set a personal record tonight for most amount of fights on a card pre-bet (6) and total including live-bets. (8)
 
And said:
$125 Not Shevchenko ITD +120 to win 150
$30 Carmouche ML +775 to win 232.5

$250 Garagorri ML +130 to win 325

$500 Oezdemir ML -125 to win 400

$125 Moffett ML +170 to win 212.5

$118 Kunchenko ML -118 to win 100

$520 Torres ML -130 to win 400
$150 Torres (SC=NA) +106 to win 159
$50 Torres ITD +800 to win 400

$210 Bontorin ML -105 to win 200

$200 Gutierrez ML +125 to win 250
Click to expand...

$125 Not Shevchenko ITD +120 to win 150
$30 Carmouche ML +775 to win 232.5

$250 Garagorri ML +130 to win 325

$500 Oezdemir ML -125 to win 400

$125 Moffett ML +170 to win 212.5

$118 Kunchenko ML -118 to win 100

$520 Torres ML -130 to win 400
$150 Torres (SC=NA) +106 to win 159
$50 Torres ITD +800 to win 400

$210 Bontorin ML -105 to win 200

$200 Gutierrez ML +125 to win 250

Result: +$492
 
Cockadoodle said:
Looking forward to this card hopefully can watch it mostly uninterrupted.
Good luck all

Shevchenko FGTD - 1u for 1.75u

Perry ML - 1u for 1.7u
Perry Luque FGTD - 1u for 1.85u

Garagorri Bandenay FGTD - .5u for .95u

Ozdemir ML - 2u for 1.56u
Ozdemir Latifi start r3 - .5u for .45u

Piechota R1/R2 - .5u for 2.5u
Piechota KO R1 - .25u for 4u
Piechota/Vieria dont start R2 - .5u for 0.6u

Moffett ML - 1u for 1.5u
Moffett sub - .5u for 2.75u

Burns ML -1.5u for 1.8u

Pessoa ML - 1u for 3.05u

Rodriguez ML - 1u for 1.18u
Rodriguez points - .5u for 1.37u

Gutierrez ML - 1u for 1.08u

Vargas ML - 2u for 4.5u
Vargas sub - .25u for 2.5u

Macedo ML - 1.5u for 2.05u
Click to expand...
Listed +6u Very nearly a great evening, lost the Moffett and Perry splits and 30seconds away from Oz Latifi starts r3.
Also made a couple units live betting on Garragori and Perry FGTD.
Happy days hope everyone killed it.
 
+0.55 on pre-fight bets with one parlay left. I’m okay with it. These cards are tough. Won decently on live bets (around 1 million units but got robbed in the Moffett & De Freitas fights imo). Kunchenko was disappointing because he was winning round 2 until the takedown. Other judges and my De Freitas parlay cashes but that’s part of the game.


4D9B3BD6-999A-4F4A-BE46-B3B08BFCC8E3.jpeg

64E8B13D-B581-488F-AFF4-CA2E40C058D8.jpeg

Had Marina live twice. Once by decision and once straight. Also blindly bet Shevchenko FGTD lol but lost on Moffett.
 
Shevchenko-Carmouche Over 3.5 Rounds - 5u for 4.9u
Latifi Submission - 0.5u for 3.5u
Luque Submission - 0.5u for 1.6u
Vieira ML - 3u for 1.55u
Vieira Submission - 3u for 4.24u
Kunchenko ML - 3u for 2.4u
Kunchenko Round 3 - 0.25 for 3u
Moffett ML - 0u for 0.75u
Over 2.5 Rounds - 1.04u for 0.37u
Torres Decision - 2.5u for 2.5u
Torres Submission - 0.5u for 5u
deFreitas ML - 2u for 1.38u
deFreitas-Gutierrez FGTD - 3u for 1.76u
Paiva ML - 0u for 0.1u
Fights to go distance Over:
5.5 - 4u for 2.11u
6.5 - 2u for 2.8u
7.5 - 0.5u for 1.8u
8.5 - 0.25u for 2.55u
9.5 - 0.25u for 7.81u
10.5 - 0.125u for 19.25u
Sheva-Liz O3.5 + Barz-Moff O2.5 + Event O5.5 + Luque - 1u for 4.53u

14.17u

Was really uneasy with how I played this but it worked. If not for a Paiva cut and maybe Oz gassing+Latifi surviving one more round, I'm possibly 10u higher on the event props. Meh, shoulda-woulda-coulda. Been a great last few events.
 
After a disastrous start on the prelims with Tecia Torres and Alexey Kunchenko and going deep in a hole I picked the right fights to add more bets on and then the main event and event props helped me get deep into the black. So I have to be happy with that and 10.02 units profit on the balance.

UFC on ESPN+ 14 Results Risk $5,334.00

Valentina Shevchenko -5½ points (-610) vs Liz Carmouche $610.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 2 (-425) $425.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 3 (-175) $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche Over 3½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00= $102.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00= -$30.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+1100) $25.00 for $275.00= -$25.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1800) $25.00 for $450.00= -$25.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+235) $100.00 for $235.00= $235.00

Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-172) $172.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-172) $258.00 for $150.00= $150.00
Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-175) $350.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Live In-Play Fighting Mike Perry (+120) vs Vicente Luque $100.00 for $120.00= -$100.00
Live In-Play Fighting Mike Perry (+150) vs Vicente Luque $100.00 for $150.00= -$100.00

Live In-Play Luiz Garagorri (-300) vs Humberto Bandenay $150.00 for $50.00= $50.00

Volkan Oezdemir (-155) vs Ilir Latifi $310.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Volkan Oezdemir (-175) vs Ilir Latifi $350.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Volkan Oezdemir wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+162) $75.00 for $121.50= $121.50

Rodolfo Vieira (-205) vs Oskar Piechota $820.00 for $400.00= $400.00
Rodolfo Vieira (-205) vs Oskar Piechota $820.00 for $400.00= $400.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins by submission (-130) $130.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 1 (+175) $75.00 for $131.25= -$75.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 2 (+425) $40.00 for $170.00= $170.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 3 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00= -$25.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 2 (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00= -$50.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 3 (+1800) $50.00 for $900.00= -$50.00
Rodolfo Vieira/Oskar Piechota won't go 3 round distance (-400) $400.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Enrique Barzola (-130) vs Bobby Moffet $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00

Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00= -$325.00
Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00= -$325.00
Alexey Kunchenko (-135) vs Gilbert Burns $337.50 for $250.00= -$337.50
Alexey Kunchenko wins by TKO/KO (+355) $50.00 for $177.50= -$50.00
Alexey Kunchenko wins in round 3 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00= -$15.00

Ciryl Gane/Raphael Pessoa Under 1½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Tecia Torres (-145) vs Marina Rodriguez $362.50 for $250.00= -$362.50
Tecia Torres wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00= -$50.00
Tecia Torres wins by 3 round decision (+105) $100.00 for $105.00= -$100.00

Raulian Paiva (+101) vs Rogerio Bontorin $100.00 for $101.00= -$100.00

Geraldo De Freitas (-145) vs Chris Gutierrez $145.00 for $100.00= -$145.00

Rodrigo Vargas vs Alex Da Silva: No Bet

Polyana Viana (+123) vs Veronica Macedo $100.00 for $123.00= -$100.00
Polyana Viana wins inside distance (+235) $40.00 for $94.00= -$40.00

Fights to go distance over 4½ (-513) $256.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Fights to go distance over 5½ (-245) $98.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Fights to go distance over 6½ (+147) $30.00 for $44.10= $44.10
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+380) $25.00 for $95.00= $95.00
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+1069) $15.00 for $160.35= -$15.00
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+3325) $7.00 for $232.75= -$7.00
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+16600) $3.00 for $498.00= -$3.00
-----

Total Profit= $1,002.60
 
Soccer Steve said:
Shevchenko-Carmouche Over 3.5 Rounds - 5u for 4.9u
Latifi Submission - 0.5u for 3.5u
Luque Submission - 0.5u for 1.6u
Vieira ML - 3u for 1.55u
Vieira Submission - 3u for 4.24u
Kunchenko ML - 3u for 2.4u
Kunchenko Round 3 - 0.25 for 3u
Moffett ML - 0u for 0.75u
Over 2.5 Rounds - 1.04u for 0.37u
Torres Decision - 2.5u for 2.5u
Torres Submission - 0.5u for 5u
deFreitas ML - 2u for 1.38u
deFreitas-Gutierrez FGTD - 3u for 1.76u
Paiva ML - 0u for 0.1u
Fights to go distance Over:
5.5 - 4u for 2.11u
6.5 - 2u for 2.8u
7.5 - 0.5u for 1.8u
8.5 - 0.25u for 2.55u
9.5 - 0.25u for 7.81u
10.5 - 0.125u for 19.25u
Sheva-Liz O3.5 + Barz-Moff O2.5 + Event O5.5 + Luque - 1u for 4.53u

14.17u

Was really uneasy with how I played this but it worked. If not for a Paiva cut and maybe Oz gassing+Latifi surviving one more round, I'm possibly 10u higher on the event props. Meh, shoulda-woulda-coulda. Been a great last few events.
Click to expand...
I didn't know you could parlay event props. I tried the other week with o9.5 but got errors on 5d.
 
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