UFN 151 on ESPN+ 9 Iaquinta vs Cowboy Official Bets

chemmy said:
Gagnon risk 1.29 units to win 1 unit
Bhullar risk 1 unit to win 1.21 units
Sanchez risk 1.29 units to win 1 unit

Considering Merab and Cowboy but I’ll likely pass unless their lines improve.
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+ about a unit here

Bad bet on Gagnon. Still not at all impressed by Cole Smith but I should’ve known better than to play a guy coming off injuries + lay-off + gassed in his last outing.

Cowboy is still capable of competing at the highest level, Merab did a great job of nullifying Katona’s game tonight. Elias has kinda fallen off a cliff at this point I’d say. He made a solid career out of outpointing guys but this kinda feels like the end of the road for him. Even his cardio looked diminished in the octagon. Probably not a bad idea for him to look at retirement while he’s one of the few guys who hasn’t taken loads of punishment.

Small profit and decent event but I was expecting a little more action out of the main card. On to next week.
 
2bet said:
2u Bhullar 2,13
2u Taleb/Prepolec U2.5 2,85
2u Zahabi 1,64
2u Harris 1,65
2u Sanchez 1,72
2u Dvalishvili 1,59
2u Burgos 1,68
2u Theodorou 1,90
0.5u Cerrone TKO 5,00
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+1.04u
My biggest regret is the U2.5 bet for the Taleb fight, I should not have put more than 0.5u on that.

Edit: I just went through my bookies (3) and I cannot find my Theodorou bet anywhere, seems like I got lucky and had not entered it correctly. Weird.

Edit2: damn it I found it, I had made that one two weeks ago already so it didn't show up under the latest results
 
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Terrible night for me, but I had a great 9 man parley hit

20190505_125903.jpg 20190505_125934.jpg 20190505_130022.jpg 20190504_224628.jpg
 
Bastaille said:
Barriault 280$ to win 390$

Sayles 380$ to win 160$

Taleb-prepolec u 2.5 240$ to win 450$

Harris 550$ to win 340$

Bhullar 240$ to win 240$

Burgos 240$ To win 140$

Small card for me, waiting for next week $$$$
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+340$ i really like next week card with some good spot to make $$$$.
 
mposhtkouhi said:
Here are my official bets as always all EASY MONEY BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Smith- wins inside+365(Sub rd 2)
Bhullar-+108(Dec)
Nelson-+174(KO rd 2)
Prepolec-+301(Dec)
Zahabi- wins by Dec+125
Chiasson- Wins by Dec+315
Barriaut-+134(KO1)
Spivak-+145(Sub2)
Katona-+138(Dec)
Burgos- Wins inside+180(Sub2)
Thedorou- Wins by dec+135
Iaquinta-WIns by dec+365
ALL BETS FOR 50$

Prop Bets all for 25$
1 Fight ends in KO+1185
7 Fights end in KO+2235
0 fights end in KO+5350
Realistically I see 2 fights ending in KO

5 fights end in sub+2525
6 fights end in sub+9500
Realistically I see 3 fights ending in sub

9 fights goes to a dec+1060
10 fights go to a dec+2875
2 fights goes to a dec+6850
3 fights goes to a Dec+1945
Realistically I see 7 fights going to a dec

I went 2-10 In my fighter bets last event. Horrible with the fighter picks but I won 2 fights end in KO+1075 and 8 fights end in Dec+1400 I ended up coming up 18$ last event lol lets hope for another winning even
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This is like vintage Barry shit.
 
Second card with negative returns, results as follows:

Derek Brunson by Points (Prop) +320 1u
Elias Theodorou by Points (Prop) +130 1.25u
Shane Burgo by KO or Points (Prop) +100 1u
Brad Katona +125 1.25u
Kyle Prepolec +300 0.5u
Sara Moras by Submission (Prop) +700 0.5u
Al Iaquinta -122 2.5u
Cowboy vs Al: Over 2.5 rounds (prop) -148 1.25u
Macy Chiasson and Juan Adams (Parlay) -105 5u
Arjan Bhullar by Points +230 1u
Marc-André Barriault +144 1u
Vince Morales +154 1u

Result : -3.35u

Analysis: I went too big on the Macy and Juan adams parlay (got a free 1u bet from sportsbook which I used on an Arjan by points hedge to mitigate overall loss), I should have trusted my gut and not bet on the Cowboy vs Al fight and just done the Over 2.5 rounds bet. I think the risk on Barriault was worth it but the Katona one I shouldn't have done it (Merab looked great, guy looked like he could run a marathon).

Learned not too go too heavy on any particular play unless I have a rock solid feeling on it.

Any recommendations & tips are greatly appreciated!
 
Cerrone ML - 2u for 2.05u
Brunson ML - 3u for 2.69u
Sanchez ML - 3u for 1.99u
Dvalishvili ML - 2u for 1.33u
Burgos ML - 2.5u for 1.21u
Sayles ML - 3.54u for 1.68u
Chiasson Decision - 0.25u for 0.69u
Over 1.5 Rounds - 1u for 0.91u
Harris NSC - 2.5u for 1.38u
Adams ML - 1.5u for 1.15u
Gagnon NSC - 4u for 3.03u
Gagnon Submission - 0.5u for 2.56u
Prepolec NSC - 1u for 2u
Fights to go distance:
O6.5 - 0.5u for 0.53u
O7.5 - 0.25u for 0.7u
O8.5 - 0.25u for 1.89u
O9.5 - 0.125u for 3.22u
O10.5 - 0.125u for 15.75u

12.2u to the good on the above picks (12.7u total with a live bet on Morales coming through).

Couldn't watch the main card live and I honestly, probably, would've bled profit buying back on Sanchez and Brunson on live bets. Though, during the Harris-Spivak walk-outs I thought to myself 'dammit I wanna smash Harris KO right now'. And I do think I would've been all over Cerrone live as well. Anyways, none of that matters.

The late Sayles finish kept me from O9.5 decisions prop, too bad so sad. Funny that I foresaw a lot of Decisions yet the only one I actually bet on was Macy the destroyer haha. "30-27 Swanson" for fucks sake man. And please give us Conor-Cerrone. Please.

Hope everyone made out a winner.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Though, during the Harris-Spivak walk-outs I thought to myself 'dammit I wanna smash Harris KO right now'.
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I had the exact seem feeling the second I saw him I know he was going to smash him with the quickness.. But I was fucked up on valium and high and didn't make a play. I'm going to have to start watching these events sober
 
ApplesVild said:
I had the exact seem feeling the second I saw him I know he was going to smash him with the quickness.. But I was fucked up on valium and high and didn't make a play. I'm going to have to start watching these events sober
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This is absolutely disgusting.

If u cant use the drugs to make profitable gambling decisions then pass em over to someone who can bucko
 
ApplesVild said:
I had the exact seem feeling the second I saw him I know he was going to smash him with the quickness.. But I was fucked up on valium and high and didn't make a play. I'm going to have to start watching these events sober
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#rookie
 
I go hard at the benzos and with the weed in the mix it's hard to keep focus on my thought, let a lone weigh up the best betting oppertinity
 
Cowboy looked great again. Relatively small action this week, limited to a small 1.50 unit loss. Hope to turn it around next week.

UFN 151 on ESPN+ 9 Results Risk $2,549.43

Al Iaquinta (-115) vs Donald Cerrone $114.94 for $100.00= -$114.94
Al Iaquinta (-115) vs Donald Cerrone $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
Live In-Play Al Iaquinta (-120) vs Donald Cerrone $120.48 for $100.00= -$120.48

Elias Theodorou (-105) vs Derek Brunson $210.00 for $200.00= -$210.00

Shane Burgos (-150) vs Cub Swanson $150.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Live-In Play Shane Burgos (-265) vs Cub Swanson $265.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Merab Dvalishvili (-175) vs Brad Katona $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Walt Harris (-169) vs Sergey Spivak $169.49 for $100.00= $100.00
Walt Harris (-170) vs Sergey Spivak $170.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Walt Harris wins by TKO/KO (+120) $75.00 for $90.00= $90.00
Walt Harris/Sergey Spivak Under 1½ (-103) $103.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Andrew Sanchez (-165) vs Marc-Andre Barriault $165.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Sarah Moras (+600) vs Macy Chiasson $100.00 for $600.00= -$100.00
Sarah Moras wins by submission (+1222) $30.00 for $366.60= -$30.00

Aiemann Zahabi (-150) vs Vince Morales $150.00 for $100.00= -$150.00

Nordine Taleb/Kyle Prepolec Under 2½ (+195) $100.00 for $195.00= -$100.00

Matt Sayles (-200) vs Kyle Nelson $200.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Juan Adams (-130) vs Arjan Bhullar $130.00 for $100.00= -$130.00
Juan Adams (-130) vs Arjan Bhullar $130.00 for $100.00= -$130.00
Juan Adams/Arjan Bhullar Over 2½ (-112) $112.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Cole Smith (+110) vs Mitch Gagnon $100.00 for $110.00= $110.00

Parlay:
Juan Adams wins by 3 round decision (+420) + Shane Burgos wins by 3 round decision (+275) + Al Iaquinta wins by 5 round decision (+335) $50.00 for $4,191.25= -$50.00
-----

Total Loss= -$150.42
 
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