UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Overeem vs Oleinik

Michal Oleksiejczuk got taken down for the first 8-9 minutes of this fight by a dude with a 5-4 record at the time. It was 4 years, and 10 fights ago, but there isn't much footage of him grappling. Shocked Antigulov is +170 in this spot. Recency bias from the Villante ko imo.

 
He is making that assumption but with the way she repeatedly mounted, took the back of and elbowed a much more proven fighter in Barb Honchak 9 months ago I don’t think it’s too far of a stretch to believe that she has the edge here over Antonina from top position.
Antonina has a decent sub game off her back same as her sister, also thats assuming she does get on top which is doubtful. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Antonina hits more takedowns on Roxy than she gets takendown.
 
Michal Oleksiejczuk got taken down for the first 8-9 minutes of this fight by a dude with a 5-4 record at the time. It was 4 years, and 10 fights ago, but there isn't much footage of him grappling. Shocked Antigulov is +170 in this spot. Recency bias from the Villante ko imo.



Antigulov may be a good dog spot but what happens if he cant get the SUB in rd1? If he can control Olek easy on the mat after one takedown t could extend his gas tank but Olek doesnt seem like the type to lay on his back. In the fight you posted, he didnt expose hs back when he got back to his feet. He did try a leglock for some reason though, hopefully he doesnt do that here. I think Antigulov rd1 or Olek eventually finishes him.

I like Modaferri at +295 and Oleynik at +200 but I really like Abdurakhimov at +140, Clark at +150 and Amedovski +155. Only favs I really like are Pavlovich and Evloev. I have a strong feeling the Evloev fight goes to DEC unless he can get a RNC, his grappling is strong and I dont know about his opponents. Machachev has a tough opponent. Havent watched Yakolevs opponent yet. Nakamura could be worth a bet but other spots I like more. Mustafaev is in for a hell of a fight but so is his opponent, that one is super tough to call but will surely be fun.
 
Antonina has a decent sub game off her back same as her sister, also thats assuming she does get on top which is doubtful. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Antonina hits more takedowns on Roxy than she gets takendown.

You could be right about the takedowns. Roxy isn’t exactly a great wrestler, but she is competent enough that I do suspect she’ll have a small edge in that department here.

Also, I’d be very l careful not to compare Antonina’s submission game to Valentina’s. She may be active from the bottom but she has zero submissions wins against low level competition (and only 2 stoppages via strikes too, for that matter). Valentina has scored several different submission victories with 2 of those being on the big stage.
 
Michal Oleksiejczuk got taken down for the first 8-9 minutes of this fight by a dude with a 5-4 record at the time. It was 4 years, and 10 fights ago, but there isn't much footage of him grappling. Shocked Antigulov is +170 in this spot. Recency bias from the Villante ko imo.


4 years is alot time to improve your game

EDIT This ivan shtyrkov is nothing special, Im watching his fights now.
Clark has a REAL chance to win this with his wrestling, it will make Ivan gas
 
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Comparing Antonina and Valentina is like comparing Dhiego Lima and Douglas Lima. There is such a discrepancy in skill that it's hard to imagine they are related and have been fighting for a similar length of time.
 
You could be right about the takedowns. Roxy isn’t exactly a great wrestler, but she is competent enough that I do suspect she’ll have a small edge in that department here.

Also, I’d be very l careful not to compare Antonina’s submission game to Valentina’s. She may be active from the bottom but she has zero submissions wins against low level competition (and only 2 stoppages via strikes too, for that matter). Valentina has scored several different submission victories with 2 of those being on the big stage.
Shevchenko's only relevant sub really was on Pena, although she does more actively pursue submissions especially on hurt opponents. I remember watching her really early fights where she'd come out and unload strikes on opponents then snatch a sub. Antonina seems much happier to just continuously beat opponents although the sample size for this is limited.

My main thing is that taping Roxy is that while she has some decent takedowns she goes to the clinch a lot to try and hit them and thats going to be a path of serious resistance vs a world class Muay Thai fighter like Antonina, she needs to be hitting double legs, single legs or catching kicks and thats just not her style. Even girls that used that tactic to get down Valentina were big and strong and muscled their way too them and Roxanne is unathletic as hell and smaller.

I also feel people are completely misjudging Antonina's experience in MMA. She made her MMA debut before Valentina in 2002 and has trained other martial arts for years, the only reason her and her sister did so much Muay Thai and other sports was because WMMA was so undeveloped, she still trained everything else. She also competed in Sanda as an amateur which is Zabits background and contains a lot of grappling as well. People are making the exact same assumptions they made with Valentina assuming she has nothing but striking.
 
Comparing Antonina and Valentina is like comparing Dhiego Lima and Douglas Lima. There is such a discrepancy in skill that it's hard to imagine they are related and have been fighting for a similar length of time.
How is there a discrepancy though? Antonina's been just as successful outside of MMA and not shown any glaring weaknesses in MMA or deficiencies she's just not proven herself as clearly.
 
How is there a discrepancy though? Antonina's been just as successful outside of MMA and not shown any glaring weaknesses in MMA or deficiencies she's just not proven herself as clearly.

By watching them fight. Antonina looks far inferior to Valentina.
 
By watching them fight. Antonina looks far inferior to Valentina.
Far inferior? I'll admit she's a little less slick and slower but she's still very good and has her own advantages, her use of the Thai plum is excellent for example. Comparing them to the Lima's where one guy is barely UFC level and the other world class is way off.

If anything it feels Antonina is just the worse athlete of the two, but even then she's still far ahead of Roxanne in that regard.
 
Far inferior? I'll admit she's a little less slick and slower but she's still very good and has her own advantages, her use of the Thai plum is excellent for example. Comparing them to the Lima's where one guy is barely UFC level and the other world class is way off.

If anything it feels Antonina is just the worse athlete of the two, but even then she's still far ahead of Roxanne in that regard.

I don't know man - I guess we see them differently. I don't think she's anywhere close to Valentina's level.
 
If she had a better line I would accept the small risk of Modafferi somehow winning on the ground but I can’t trust Antonina at 1.28 lol. I agree she is definitely not even close to Valentina. After her debut I started to think about fading her in the future.

This is why I don’t want to bet her this week even though she wins probably with a 70% chance.

1. She goes for stupid ass judo throws a 100 times.

2. No idea how she responds to takedowns in the middle of the cage.

3. She fought a boxer last time and to me she was getting pushed against the cage too easily. I expected a better clinch from her.

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If she had a better line I would accept the small risk of Modafferi somehow winning on the ground but I can’t trust Antonina at 1.28 lol. I agree she is definitely not even close to Valentina. After her debut I started to think about fading her in the future.

This is why I don’t want to bet her this week even though she wins probably with a 70% chance.

1. She goes for stupid ass judo throws a 100 times.

2. No idea how she responds to takedowns in the middle of the cage.

3. She fought a boxer last time and to me she was getting pushed against the cage too easily. I expected a better clinch from her.

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I actually think the cut to FLW kicks Antonina's ass. She looks tired even going into the fight. She's longer,taller and heavier than her sister who previously competed at BW. She's already 34 & the cuts will just keep getting harder. I don't understand why she doesn't just take the time to put on some healthy weight/muscle and fight at BW.
 
Trying to find tape of any of these caucazoids is a complete nightmare
 
I actually think the cut to FLW kicks Antonina's ass. She looks tired even going into the fight. She's longer,taller and heavier than her sister who previously competed at BW. She's already 34 & the cuts will just keep getting harder. I don't understand why she doesn't just take the time to put on some healthy weight/muscle and fight at BW.
She looks taller than Valentina but not as heavily muscled to my eye. Maybe she could go up, but not sure how'd she look against bigger bantamweights.
 
Reem KO -140 seems playable. If he wins, that's how he wins IMO
Round 1 +333
Round 2 +450 perhaps?
 
Modafferi Decision +675

That should nicely hedge any juice people wanna pay on Antonina.
 
After wasting an hour watching mostly (thank you black beast) bland vids, the Tybura-Abdurakhimov seems like it's on knife's edge as to who can catch the first kick, take it down, and lay on top of the other guy for the longest. Or who is strongest to lean & shove the other up against the cage and pin them there for the longest. Pitter-patter strikes from Marcin may be the difference but I gotta think anything of substance in each round by the russian in russia will be judged with bias in effect.

They are gonna match up very similarly. Hard to see a sudden HW ko. Hard to see a sub. Might be a fight where 'body language' wins one of them the second half of the 3rd round. Feels very, very coin-flippy but I give a slight edge to Tybura based on something arbitrary, energy let's say.

However, again, russian in russia, and that's the dog. I'm on Abdurkadurka at +135/+140.
 
I have good news for ,,fuck the fighter, bet the number" lovers
There is only one lock on this card and every other dog has a REAL chance to win.
Make profit, wish you luck.

LOCK of this card is Movsar Evloev, dont lose money on his opponent.
Donate a dog shelter better, doggies need food. <3
 
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