UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Overeem vs Oleinik Official Bets

[hugdeeznuts]

Also on Overeem by ko/tko

 

[Handsupkid]

got +1550 on overeem by sub.

 

[Caicara]

lol my olei prop wasnt that far away!
still 3u profit

 

[Jordan3399]

Like these regional cards, up 11.7u, congrats guys.

 

[Larthus]

Literally blew all my profit on my smart Sultan bet by putting 5u on the O 1.5 for the main event

 

[Doc R]

1u Olenik +210
1u Shtyrkov -180 cancelled.

Added
1u on Golm +230
.5u Fiziev R1 +425
.5u Fiziev R2 +625
.5u Fiziev R3 +1125
after more tape, wanted to hedge out of Fiziev. he just got hit too much by a titanFC can.
1.7u Mustafaev +115
.5u Mustafaev R1 +350

1u Shev ITD +330
1.3u Shev DEC -130 (hedge. Confident shev wins but don’t want to be down on this if Roxys toughness prevails to a DEC)
.5u Choi +300

ended up adding 1U R1 Overeem +190.

Got killed by Shev. Wish I bet more against the A Shev hype train, which is my typical MO, but I had PTSD from watching Roxy's last fight and I just couldn't do it. Thought Shev would have been able to defend the TDs with athleticism and her strikes hurt Roxy more. But Roxy just ate em and walked through em to get the TDs.

Losses on Golm (1), Olenik (1), Shevchenko(2.3), Choi (.5), Fiziev(1.5) Hedged out)
-6.3

Wins on Reem R1(1.9), Mustafaev ML(1.95), Mustafaev R1(1.75) +5.6

Total -.7

 

[Soccer Steve]

Overeem - parlay
Oleinik KO - 0.25u for 1.51u (+600)
Tsarukyan ML - 1.5u for 5.10u (+340)
Tsarukyan KO - 0.2u for 2u (+1000)
Golm ML - 1.5u for 3.53u (+235)
Clark ML - 0.0u for 0.0u
Modafferi ML - 0.5u for 1.4u (+280)
Modafferi Decision - 0.25u for 1.69u (+675)
Evloev - parlay
Evloev Decision - 0.5u for 1.1u (+220)
Nakamura Decision - 0.5u for 1.12u (+224)
Nakamura Submission - 0.25u for 1.25u (+500)
Yakovlev ML - 2u for 1.48u (-135)
Abdurakhimov ML - 2u for 2.73u (+140/+135)
Tybura Decision - 1u for 2u (+175/+210)
Oleksiejczuk ML - 3u for 1.47u (-192/-210)
Antigulov Round 1 or 2 - 0.5u for 1.75u (+350)
Fiziev ML - 2u for 2.78u (+145/+140/+125)
Parlay - Evloev + Overeem - 2u for 1.84u
Parlay - Yakovlev + Overeem - 1u for 1.18u

Hope my math is right but 5.19u on the above and 10.96u total on the night after live bets (paid the price for Aliev, Jotko, Islam when it was obvious their opponents basically offered no threat) and waited to see where my night stood before unloading on Reem, which I did.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

This will be by far my lightest betting card of 2019, even though I intend to bet a little more on Pavlovich-Golm. At present though, we merely have

2.5u on Overeem TKO/KO at -165
2u on Antigulov at an average of +182
1.3u on Modafferi NSC at +145 (likely refund)

Tiny 0.5u loss.

Didn't end up betting Pavlovich-Golm, which was good since I was looking at the FGTD and Pavlovich by decision lines. Don't mind the Antigulov bet; Olekj has improved a lot, even since his fight 2 months ago, and showed ability he hadn't in any previous fights.

Should I have just played Modafferi's ML straight-up? Yeah, probably. However, she also out-performed my expectations so much that even a robbery wasn't that scary. And those fears weren't unfounded; a Russian judge had it 29-28 for Shevchenko and 2 others had it only 29-28 when I had it 30-27 Roxy.

I actually think Modafferi, at 36 years old and almost 16 years in MMA, is still improving. Her physical strength, movement, and wrestling were all better than I have ever seen it. She was noticeably larger and more muscular at the weigh-ins, too.

So something to correct for the future, but not a bad misplay, either.

Should I have unloaded more on Overeem's TKO/KO line? Maybe. But he looked freaking awful and was absolutely getting hit repeatedly and even momentarily stunned (even if the crowd overreacted) by Oleinik.

I'm playing props less, but I'm glad I went for the straight TKO/KO line instead of ML there. There was really no other possible victory that wasn't a complete lottery ticket.

What I'm really kicking myself is not clicking quickly enough on Makhachev-Tsarukyan GTD at -180 live-bet after round 1. Gah. What an opportunity missed.

 

[Sadistics]

Overeem -199 $665
Overeem KO -150 $250

Tsarukyan +363 $300
Tsarukyan DEC +635 $45

Modafferi +225 $200

Evloev -265 $500
Evloev DEC +257 $100
Evloev/Choi O1.5 -159 $250

Nakamura -126 $250

Abdurakhimov +165 $200

Golm +250 $100

Oleksiejczuk -190 $250
Oleksiejczuk KO -110 $250
Oleksiejczuk/Antigulov U1.5 -125 $150
Antigulov RD1 +550 $100

Fiziev +155 $300


Was expecting to be bigger on Overeem but the line never came back to -1xx.

+$1998, wasn't expecting much from this card so I'll happily take it.

 

[2bet]

2u Mustafaev 1,57 (YES, I PUT MONEY ON HIM WAY TOO EARLY )
2u Yakovlev 1,73
2u Abdurakhimov 2,50
2u Nakamura 1,89
2u Modafferi 3,86
5u Overeem 1,45
2u Jotko + Antigulov/Oleksiejczuk ITD 1,93
1u Oleinik SUB 5,00

+12,43u
another amazing night

made cash on every fight that I bet on except Aliev vs Nakamura.
I wasn't impressed at all by Aliev, Nakamura just was total lackluster, it was an ok bet for 1,89

Would have been nice to have gotten a better line on Mustafaev, on the other hand I had gotten pretty good odds on Abdurakhimov and Modafferi, so I am good

Hope you all made it out well!

 

[Austisthunder]

To be honest taping this responsibly wasnt doable so if i wasnt a complete alcoholic degen this entire card minus the ME should be a full pass but fuck that

5 U Overreem -235 ML
4 U Yakolev -125 ML
4 U Evloev -270 ML

Edit: 1.5 U Choi +350 as a bit of hedge/ arb play

Clean sweep except for my hedge but free money is free money
+ 6 U ish
Easy come easy go

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Some of you guys are writing essays lol. Just track your shit.

+4.41u

 

[Bastaille]

Golm 170$ to win 380$

Oleksiejczuk 350$ to win 160$

Yakovlev 400$ to win 260$

Fiziev 260$ to win 390$

Evloev 850$ to win 300$

Tsarukyan 250$ to win 750$

Nakamura 220$ to win 200$

Evloev/cutelaba 650$ to win 790$

-180$ but waiting for my parlay to turn into + money. I m feeling confident for the next event.

 

[nebulousned]

$5 on the Reem to win $7
$20 on mr Golm to beat that big Russian dude to win $60
$25 on Abdurakhimov to beat Tybra to win $53.75
$10 on Tybra vs Abdurakhimov going the distance to win $15.50
$10 on Overeem vs Ollnk to go over 1.5 rounds to win $19.50

Another L of $9.25

Experimented with props, shouldn't have done that.

I really thought Sergey Pavlovich was super overrated when I watched his fights with Kirill Sidelnikov and Mikhail Mokhnatkin. Definitely misread that. Although not specifically sure what I misread which is concerning.

 

[chemmy]

Overeem risk 2.22 units to win 1 unit
Evloev risk 2.81 units to win 1 unit
Nakamura risk 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Abdurakhimov risk 1 unit to win 1.46 units
Modafferi risk 1 unit to win 2.98 units
Fiziev risk 1 unit to win 1.47 units

+4.43 units

I’m happy with most of my plays. I had the urge to switch sides completely on the Fiziev fight when Mustafaev moved all the way to +118 but against my better judgement I let it ride even though I felt like it was basically a coin-flip.

Nakamura just watched that fight pass him by. He had the toolbox to win that fight, but lacked the fighter’s mentality/gameplan to pull out the victory. Bad bet at that price in hindsight, regardless of how little I think of Aliev. I should’ve been looking for +120 or passing there.

Everything else went well. Roxy coming out and doing exactly what she needed to was the icing on the cake. Glad there was no home cooking there.

 

[Johnny Bones Jones]

Took some time off from mma but saw a live line on Islam Makhachev at -350 at 5u (in hindsight, probably shouldn't have played it at all) and was up 1.4u over all.

 

[null]

Really bad bet on Antonina, the value was clearly on Roxanne with a takedown game plan and I should have recognized that since she won me money as an underdog before. A lesson that cost me 28.9 units.

UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Results Risk $6,416.72

Alistair Overeem/Aleksei Oleinik starts round 2 (-165) $165.00 for $100.00= -$165.00
Alistair Overeem/Aleksei Oleinik won’t start round 4 (-380) $380.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Islam Makhachev -3½ points (-175) vs Arman Tsarukyan $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Sergei Pavlovich -3½ points (-155) vs Marcelo Golm $116.25 for $75.00= $75.00

Antonina Shevchenko (-294) vs Roxanne Modafferi $1,176.47 for $400.00= -$1,176.47
Antonina Shevchenko (-325) vs Roxanne Modafferi $650.00 for $200.00= -$650.00
Antonina Shevchenko (-330) vs Roxanne Modaferri $660.00 for $200.00= -$660.00
Antonina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00= -$15.00
Antonina Shevchenko wins by decisions (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= -$125.00
Antonina Shevchenko wins by 3 round decision (-129) $129.00 for $100.00= -$129.00
Roxanne Modafferi scorecards = no action (+102) $125.00 for $127.50= Cancelled
Roxanne Modaferri wins by submission (+750) $200.00 for $1,500.00= -$200.00
Roxanne Modaferri wins by TKO/KO (+1105) $50.00 for $552.50= -$50.00
Roxanne Modaferri wins in round 2 (+1600) $25.00 for $400.00= -$25.00
Roxanne Modaferri wins in round 3 (+3300) $25.00 for $825.00= -$25.00
Antonina Shevchenko/Roxanne Modafferi Over 2½ (-235) $235.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Krzysztof Jotko (-170) vs Alen Amedovski $340.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Krzysztof Jotko (-175) vs Alen Amedovski $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Krzysztof Jotko wins by submission (+400) $50.00 for $200.00= -$50.00
Alen Amedovski win by KO/TKO/DQ (+275) $75.00 for $206.25= -$75.00

Seung Woo Choi (+310) vs Movsar Evloev $100.00 for $310.00= -$100.00
Mosvar Evloev wins by 3 round decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Keita Nakamura (-110) vs Sultan Aliev $110.00 for $100.00= -$110.00
Keita Nakamura wins by submission (+469) $50.00 for $234.50= -$50.00
Keita Nakamura wins in round 2 (+850) $10.00 for $85.00= -$10.00
Keita Nakamura wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00= -$10.00

Alex da Silva (+125) vs Alexander Yakovlev $200.00 for $250.00= -$200.00

Shamil Abdurakhimov (+130) vs Marcin Tybura $100.00 for $130.00= $130.00
Shamil Abdurakhimov wins by decision or technical decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= -$50.00

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-200) vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov $400.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins in round 2 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50= -$25.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 1 (+600) $40.00 for $240.00= -$40.00

Rafael Fiziev (-115) vs Magomed Mustafaev $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
Rafael Fiziev wins by TKO/KO (+280) $40.00 for $112.00= -$40.00
Rafael Fiziev/Magomed Mustafaev won't go 3 round distance (-225) $225.00 for $100.00= $100.00
-----

Total Loss= -$2,890.47

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Really bad bet on Antonina, the value was clearly on Roxanne with a takedown game plan and I should have recognized that since she won me money as an underdog before. A lesson that cost me 28.9 units.

UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Results Risk $6,416.72

Alistair Overeem/Aleksei Oleinik starts round 2 (-165) $165.00 for $100.00= -$165.00
Alistair Overeem/Aleksei Oleinik won’t start round 4 (-380) $380.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Islam Makhachev -3½ points (-175) vs Arman Tsarukyan $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Sergei Pavlovich -3½ points (-155) vs Marcelo Golm $116.25 for $75.00= $75.00

Antonina Shevchenko (-294) vs Roxanne Modafferi $1,176.47 for $400.00= -$1,176.47
Antonina Shevchenko (-325) vs Roxanne Modafferi $650.00 for $200.00= -$650.00
Antonina Shevchenko (-330) vs Roxanne Modaferri $660.00 for $200.00= -$660.00
Antonina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00= -$15.00
Antonina Shevchenko wins by decisions (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= -$125.00
Antonina Shevchenko wins by 3 round decision (-129) $129.00 for $100.00= -$129.00
Roxanne Modafferi scorecards = no action (+102) $125.00 for $127.50= Cancelled
Roxanne Modaferri wins by submission (+750) $200.00 for $1,500.00= -$200.00
Roxanne Modaferri wins by TKO/KO (+1105) $50.00 for $552.50= -$50.00
Roxanne Modaferri wins in round 2 (+1600) $25.00 for $400.00= -$25.00
Roxanne Modaferri wins in round 3 (+3300) $25.00 for $825.00= -$25.00
Antonina Shevchenko/Roxanne Modafferi Over 2½ (-235) $235.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Krzysztof Jotko (-170) vs Alen Amedovski $340.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Krzysztof Jotko (-175) vs Alen Amedovski $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Krzysztof Jotko wins by submission (+400) $50.00 for $200.00= -$50.00
Alen Amedovski win by KO/TKO/DQ (+275) $75.00 for $206.25= -$75.00

Seung Woo Choi (+310) vs Movsar Evloev $100.00 for $310.00= -$100.00
Mosvar Evloev wins by 3 round decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Keita Nakamura (-110) vs Sultan Aliev $110.00 for $100.00= -$110.00
Keita Nakamura wins by submission (+469) $50.00 for $234.50= -$50.00
Keita Nakamura wins in round 2 (+850) $10.00 for $85.00= -$10.00
Keita Nakamura wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00= -$10.00

Alex da Silva (+125) vs Alexander Yakovlev $200.00 for $250.00= -$200.00

Shamil Abdurakhimov (+130) vs Marcin Tybura $100.00 for $130.00= $130.00
Shamil Abdurakhimov wins by decision or technical decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= -$50.00

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-200) vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov $400.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins in round 2 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50= -$25.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 1 (+600) $40.00 for $240.00= -$40.00

Rafael Fiziev (-115) vs Magomed Mustafaev $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
Rafael Fiziev wins by TKO/KO (+280) $40.00 for $112.00= -$40.00
Rafael Fiziev/Magomed Mustafaev won't go 3 round distance (-225) $225.00 for $100.00= $100.00
-----

Total Loss= -$2,890.47

Interesting. Say, did you factor in this bet you mentioned in the discussion topic?

Added some on the under in the next bout: Islam Makhachev/Arman Tsarukyan Under 2½ (+137) $200.00 for $274.00

 

[null]

Interesting. Say, did you factor in this bet you mentioned in the discussion topic?

I always post results in detail including late & live bets but I had a nagging feeling I missed one somewhere this time and couldn't recall what it was. So -$3,090.47 amended.