UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

If thats the case then that might be even more of a concern, assuming he was up 2-0 wasnt even close to being a sure thing
My meme pry isn’t great but I did bet moicano dec and thought he easily won the first two rds. Stephens is dangerous and I think he minimized risk
 
Anybody else like Assuncao at almost +200?

Surprised nobody is really mentioning this considering the fact that he beat Moraes
18 months ago

I'm considering playing Assuncao because I think the line is too wide. But, that first fight was a bad decision. Close fight, but I thought it was pretty clear for Moraes. 16 of 17 media members had it for Moraes as well.
 
I was more confident in Moicano pre tape than I am now after limited tape.

Otherwise, where is the value on this card?

I dont think ill be betting Assuncao.
History would indicate that rematches heavily favor the younger fighter.

I really like David Teymur, but Aloe Vera looks like hes his best self right now.
 
Anybody else like Assuncao at almost +200?

Surprised nobody is really mentioning this considering the fact that he beat Moraes
18 months ago

Honestly, I thought this was going to open near evens and I was going to bet Moraes. I think he's improved more and has a better chance to finish. Regardless, I think this is more than likely going to be a close decision. I'll probably bite on Assuncao.
 
Nurmagomedov getting extra points on his betting line cause of Khabib again. Shouldn't have been favored or won against scoggins and shouldn't have opened one here. Would have played Ramos opener had I been faster on the trigger.

Surprised Baby Albini wasnt cut after getting embarrassed as a big fav against Arlo and Zeke choked by an old man lol. Will look to see if hes fade material here or not.

Frota is a good dog play. Good striking and just as good bjj creds. Probably on peds too.

Perez is a fool and Hernandez seems legit.
 
Nurmagomedov getting extra points on his betting line cause of Khabib again. Shouldn't have been favored or won against scoggins and shouldn't have opened one here. Would have played Ramos opener had I been faster on the trigger.

Surprised Baby Albini wasnt cut after getting embarrassed as a big fav against Arlo and Zeke choked by an old man lol. Will look to see if hes fade material here or not.

Frota is a good dog play. Good striking and just as good bjj creds. Probably on peds too.

Perez is a fool and Hernandez seems legit.
Making fun of Oliynik huh. I'm not betting Albini, but that's not the reason.
 
The decline of Aldo is so overstated. Max is clearly the GOAT right now at FW and Aldo was very competitive with him while fresh. Saw a bunch of people say Aldo was hurt against Jeremy, I watched that fight multiple times now and 100% disagree. Also Aldo should be in a better mental place here after winning again (even admitted questioning himself going into Stephens fight). More technical points:

Moicano's main weapons are his jab and leg kicks, this is how he beat Stephens. Aldo's ability to slip and counter jabs with power shots is elite, tagged max a ton the first 2 rounds of each fight. His ability to check leg kicks is also very good (watch first few min of Stephens fight). Aldo does so many subtle things defensively that I feel go overlooked soley because people now equate defense with movement. Moicano isn't better defensivly then Aldo just because he is on his bike alot and he surely isn't winning this fight the same way he edged Stephens (jab, takedowns, leg kicks). I got 2.5u Aldo +155.
 
Thought Ledet/Walker was way off pretape, but Ledet was extremely underwhelming outside of Chase/Godbeer fights. Although I think he looked quicker at 205 in the brief striking exchanges with Rakic, he still can't defend kicks (leg kicks especially) nor tds. I blind bet Ledet for .5u +265 (Dimes and BOL openers), but am not adding anything at +200. Think it might have slight value because Walker isn't likely to use tds and could have trouble with Ledet's boxing and reach, but not something I am willing to bet anything substantial on.
 
Otherwise, where is the value on this card?
I really like Borella and Thiago Alves, both are coming of decision losses they should probably of won so are getting underrated badly.

Santos seems like an absolute can crusher while Borella had a coin flip fight with the no.3 girl in the division and looks great training out of ATT. Seems the fact she is relatively unknown coming off a loss facing a 16-0 fighter is all people looked at when making the odds.

Alves too looked good against Kunchenko and a lot thought he won the first 2 rounds. He's just a fundamentally very sound fighter with solid Muay Thai taking on Griffin who is hyped now after narrowly beating the worst version of Perry we'd ever seen and looked pretty underwhelming elsewhere imo. He hits hard and is younger but at around +200 I think Alves is solid I think he should probably win a decision.
 
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I really like Borella and Thiago Alves, both are coming of decision losses they should probably of won so are getting underrated badly.

Santos seems like an absolute can crusher while Borella had a coin flip fight with the no.3 girl in the division and looks great training out of ATT. Seems the fact she is relatively unknown coming off a loss facing a 16-0 fighter is all people looked at when making the odds.

Alves too looked against Kunchenko and a lot thought he won the first 2 rounds. He's just a fundamentally very sound fighter with solid Muay Thai taking on Griffin who is hyped now after narrowly beating the worst version of Perry we'd ever seen and looked pretty underwhelming elsewhere imo. He hits hard and is younger but at around +200 I think Alves is solid I think he should probably win a decision.

Have you taped Alves/Griffin yet? Only watched Kunchenko fight thus far. Leaning an Alves play as well, but Kunchenko was very low volume there. I want to see if being technical alone will give Griffin enough problems to lose a decision.
 
My meme pry isn’t great but I did bet moicano dec and thought he easily won the first two rds. Stephens is dangerous and I think he minimized risk
Lmao I respect it. Yea i had moicano in that one too but was not confident at all when it was revealed to be a split decision
 
Have you taped Alves/Griffin yet? Only watched Kunchenko fight thus far. Leaning an Alves play as well, but Kunchenko was very low volume there. I want to see if being technical alone will give Griffin enough problems to lose a decision.
Griffin has half decent striking but I don't see much else that impresses me. We've seen him hurt in every UFC fight except his 54 second KO win, his TDD has looked pretty weak so I wouldn't be surprised if Alves wins rounds with a takedown or two. His cardio hasn't looked great and we've seen him slow as early as the second round and he looks to especially fade if he has to wrestle. On a technical level he likes to bounce in and out a lot going heavy on his lead leg and Alves has great leg kicks to chop that down so if it goes to the third round I expect Griffin to be pretty hittable with his cardio and leg damaged.

My biggest concern is he does hit hard and Alves is older, but I don't think it's a huge issue. We've seen Alves hurt more as he aged but only by big shots from Millender and Condit where he struggled with the range a lot so I think he is more than likely fine here. Ideally I hope Alves just tries to grapple with him early and spam leg kicks to slow him down then likely cruise to a decision or possible late TKO.

I've got 2u on Alves at +200 and cap him around -150. Just too many holes in Griffins game for a smart veteran like Alves to miss.
 
Griffin has half decent striking but I don't see much else that impresses me. We've seen him hurt in every UFC fight except his 54 second KO win, his TDD has looked pretty weak so I wouldn't be surprised if Alves wins rounds with a takedown or two. His cardio hasn't looked great and we've seen him slow as early as the second round and he looks to especially fade if he has to wrestle. On a technical level he likes to bounce in and out a lot going heavy on his lead leg and Alves has great leg kicks to chop that down so if it goes to the third round I expect Griffin to be pretty hittable with his cardio and leg damaged.

My biggest concern is he does hit hard and Alves is older, but I don't think it's a huge issue. We've seen Alves hurt more as he aged but only by big shots from Millender and Condit where he struggled with the range a lot so I think he is more than likely fine here. Ideally I hope Alves just tries to grapple with him early and spam leg kicks to slow him down then likely cruise to a decision or possible late TKO.

I've got 2u on Alves at +200 and cap him around -150. Just too many holes in Griffins game for a smart veteran like Alves to miss.
My main concern is Alves' cardio lately. Griffin sets a solid pace on the feet, and Alves just seems to decline.

Though I am still mildly butthurt about losing my Alves ML play against Kunchenko.
 
Anybody else like Assuncao at almost +200?

Surprised nobody is really mentioning this considering the fact that he beat Moraes
18 months ago


I scored the first one for Marlon so I’m looking at this rematch as though Moraes won the fight myself. Obviously with close rounds you always need to be concerned that judges will score it “wrong”, especially when it has already happened once in the past, but I’m pretty confident that Moraes gets the win this time.

This time around, Moraes has more octagon experience, he’s entering his prime at 30 years old and is looking as fast and sharp as ever. Despite still looking stellar himself, Assuncao is an almost 37 year old vet in a weightclass that historically hasn’t been very forgiving to aging fighters, especially in the later rounds.

This being a 5 rounder seems to me to be in Moraes’ favor. I don’t see an Assuncao finish as being too likely here, so what’s left is edging out close rounds on the scorecards once again only this time he’ll need to do it in at least 3 separate rounds. I think Moraes’ speed and youth will really start to shine in rounds 3-5 even if rounds 1 & 2 are close.

I was hoping for a much closer line, but I played Moraes @ -217 and I’m feeling pretty confident about it. If the line tightens towards the fight I may double up, but as good as Assuncao is, I’m ok with my play at this price.

Maybe my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt though since I’ve been predicting Moraes would win the UFC belt since before his debut, but I think I’m usually pretty good at staying objective.
 
So I kind of like this Borella chick lol
 
For once, with the opposite normally being the sentence of choice, it feels accurate to say that Lyman seems a big step down in competition.
 
I scored the first one for Marlon so I’m looking at this rematch as though Moraes won the fight myself. Obviously with close rounds you always need to be concerned that judges will score it “wrong”, especially when it has already happened once in the past, but I’m pretty confident that Moraes gets the win this time.

Sometimes just go with the flow in the thread but this time wanted to see it for myself.

Round 1: Once the initial feel-out process is over it's almost all Moraes until the last 5-10 seconds. Marlon's corner says they lost the round because of the late flurry from Assuncao. Stann disagrees, fwiw.
Round 2: Really close. Assuncao advancing, dictating way more. Final 40 seconds could make an argument that one hard punch and another landing combo by Marlon takes that round. Super close.
Round 3: Early (partial) knockdown for Assuncao. With two minutes remaining Assuncao either tires or decides to shell up and play it safe. Marlon begins to take over. Big head kick to end the fight. I think pretty clear round for Marlon.

One judge scoring is 30-27 is absurd. A case can be made for 29-28 either way.

The here and know, imo? In a 5 rounder this is all Moraes.
 
My main concern is Alves' cardio lately. Griffin sets a solid pace on the feet, and Alves just seems to decline.

Though I am still mildly butthurt about losing my Alves ML play against Kunchenko.
I was a little worried about that but after seeing Griffin slow in his fights and Alves stay composed and look good in the third against Cote I'm not too worried. I think that the gameplan will also work great against Griffin too with Alves ability to hit takedowns if necessary.

Definitely glad this fight isn't in Russia too, the scoring that night was an absolute joke.
 
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