UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa

I don't like this event for betting as much as last night. Main bets are Martin, JDS, Willis, and Nguyen. I have Shogun/Pedro ITD closing out a couple parlays too. A couple dogs that I stabbed at were Garcia, Okami, and Touahri.
 
Man, I felt like such a genius grabbing Dos Santos at -170 a few hours after he opened.

Now, he is available at -130. Wow.
 
I know Gorgees is an unknown entity but I'm going to bet on this being finished. Damir ITD -140 and Damir KO +125.
 
Added to jds and hunt

Almost want to bet Kunchenko at -290. Okami is washed.

Added to Matthews when he was -105
 
I threw 100 on yushin and 100 on Reis.

Couple seasoned vets coming in as the dogs but looking really good at the weigh ins.

Good luck all.

Love you guys.
 
I threw 100 on yushin and 100 on Reis. Couple seasoned vets coming in as the dogs but looking really good at the weigh ins.

Good luck all.

Love you guys.
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Not confident in my bets AT ALL.. this could turn into a terrible night:

Okami ML: 0.5u to win 1.1u
Nguyen ML: 1.4u to win 1u
Shogun ML: 1u to win 3.36u
JDS-Tuivasa over 2.5: 1u to win 1.5u
JDS ML: 2.86u to win 2u
 
Not confident in my bets AT ALL.. this could turn into a terrible night:

Okami ML: 0.5u to win 1.1u
Nguyen ML: 1.4u to win 1u
Shogun ML: 1u to win 3.36u
JDS-Tuivasa over 2.5: 1u to win 1.5u
JDS ML: 2.86u to win 2u

I feel like you are going to lose every single bet here.
 
Who do we like tonight @Oblivian @iGnP ??
I’m really out of the loop. Haven’t researched or made a decent sized wager in a decently long time. Sorry. With that being said, I’ll prob throw a bet on Hunt just for action
 
So quick question, are we really that hype on Tyson Pedro... like are we really just gonna write off Rua this easily? I think he is a great play at +350. Pedro is 3-2 in the octagon losing to Ovince and Latifi, and doesn't really pose much of a knockout threat on the feet. Very inexperienced and going against a tough vet in Rua who I get is on the downside of his career. But besides a big size advantage is he really gonna knockout Rua? I'm just not sold all the way and wannna make a small play on him.

did you actually watch those fights? Pedro basically had OSP finished and got caught in a sub while was trying to finish OSP.

Latifi was terrified to stand with Pedro and took him down in every round.

Rua has no real chance in this fight. 5% at best.
 
Rua has no real chance in this fight. 5% at best.
I guess you put all your money on Pedro.. if he wins 95% of the time you cap him at like -2000


BTW.. good start of the night guys.. won 1u in KSW LOL (Szymański ML over Torres)
 
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Guys.. how long util it starts?

It's okay, for some odd reason I have like 50% winning ratio on the fights that put money on but 90% winning ratio on the fights that I don't bet but I choose a winner in mind. Out of 110 kickboxing and mma fights that I chose a winner in my head I got 90% winning ratio. Out of 30 kickboxing and mma fights that I put money on I got 50% ratio. How is that possible?
 
It's okay, for some odd reason I have like 50% winning ratio on the fights that put money on but 90% winning ratio on the fights that I don't bet but I choose a winner in mind. Out of 110 kickboxing and mma fights that I chose a winner in my head I got 90% winning ratio. Out of 30 kickboxing and mma fights that I put money on I got 50% ratio. How is that possible?
Because when you are betting you dont play winners.. you play odds and value. I could take a hundred 10 to 1 favorites and would have a 90% winning ratio.

Picking winners is the easiest thing on the world... but that is not a good gambling strategy. Specially when people parlay big favs (and they do it a lot).

In gambling you need to know you are going to lose some bets. It happens and if you cant take it you should not do it.

Im pretty happy losing a little money on Shogun tonight (and I think I will) but I like his chances a little better than 1 out of 4... the same way I was happy losing a little bit of money on Holly Holm when she fought Ronda, but she won me a 10/1 bet.

Not saying that playing is all about picking huge underdogs because that is not.. my better results are in the -150/+150 field.

Is all about value and BR managment. I dont claim to be an expert but Ive lost so many times that I finally learned something.. or at least I hope so LOL.
 
Just little stats on Mark Hunt's betting odds:
since his fight with Junior he is 4 wins 7 losses and 1 draw (bookies don't care if it is no contest officially they pay you what is announced in the octagon, you gonna lose money if you bet Hunt to beat Lesnar)

Out of these 12 fights, he has been over +200 underdog just two times - v Junior and v Werdum.

In conclusion - public don't like to fade Hunt, even though he loses a lot time. Don't be scared of the walk off KO, homie.
 
Because when you are betting you dont play winners.. you play odds and value. I could take a hundred 10 to 1 favorites and would have a 90% winning ratio.

Picking winners is the easiest thing on the world... but that is not a good gambling strategy. Specially when people parlay big favs (and they do it a lot).

In gambling you need to know you are going to lose some bets. It happens and if you cant take it you should not do it.

Im pretty happy losing a little money on Shogun tonight (and I think I will) but I like his chances a little better than 1 out of 4... the same way I was happy losing a little bit of money on Holly Holm when she fought Ronda, but she won me a 10/1 bet.

Not saying that playing is all about picking huge underdogs because that is not.. my better results are in the -150/+150 field.

Is all about value and BR managment. I dont claim to be an expert but Ive lost so many times that I finally learned something.. or at least I hope so LOL.

I actually calculated the odds and they are only a little bit bigger, pretty small difference. It has to do with me being biased or something...like hating some fighters and loving others that makes me bet on them.
 
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