UFN 141 : A Case Study in Why UFC Matchmakers Suck

PolarBearPaulVarelans

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While I was always far more of a PRIDE fan in the early to mid 2000s, I was consistently impressed with the job that Joe Silva, the then UFC matchmaker, did. The matches were always sensible, frequently intriguing, and would work in building up a new star regardless of who won.

After taking a break from seriously following MMA, I return earlier this year to find that Joe Silva has retired and been replaced by Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard. I wanted to give them a chance, but after the most recent event, it's clear that they're the Dumb and Dumber of MMA, and at least slightly responsible for the UFC's current woes.

Consider the two main events, shall we?

First up we have Sergey Pavlovich versus Alistair Overeem. Pavlovich is the biggest prospect in all of heavyweight MMA and a potential future world champion. He is big, powerful, moves well, strikes beautifully, and is difficult to take or keep down.

So what do you do? Do you match him up with a mid-level, name fighter that accenuates his strengths and allows him to get a highlight reel knockout in his debut?

Of course not! You match him up with Alistair Overeem, a danger to Pavlovich since he brings a very similar skillset to the table. It's classical lose-lose booking here.

Overeem wins, and so what? After brutal knockout losses to N'Gannou and Blaydes, a win over a new guy only proves that he isn't completely washed up, nothing more. No one is clamoring to see Overeem fight for a title thanks to this win.

Meanwhile, you've derailed a huge prospect in Pavlovich in a major way. If he does become a big star eventually, the early knockout loss to a very past his prime Overeem will be used to discredit him for years to come.

But what if Pavlovich had won? Would it have given him THAT much steam to destroy N'Gannou's and Blaydes' leftovers? Not really. Not any more than if he had beaten a far friendlier match-up in an Arlovski or Oleynik, for instance. Meanwhile, a third straight loss would have completely killed Overeem as any kind of significant name.

Let's move on to the main event, which is even worse.

On the one hand, you have Curtis Blaydes, a guy who was either the top contender for the heavyweight crown, or second after Miocic. A heavily hyped, respected guy that Cormier had paid massive respect to and said he would have defended against if he wasn't retiring at 40.

So what do you do? Why, place him in match-up against a faded, enigmatic contender who is a uniquely bad match-up, and had already beaten him once before.

If Bladyes wins, it does nothing for him. He is no closer to the belt, and N'Gannou would be dismissed as a flawed headcase.

But if Blaydes loses, which happened, he is knocked off as a serious contender and can't easily get back there. Nor can he be easily promoted in that role even if he comes back and wins his next few, as many will dismiss him due to being beaten not once, but twice by N'Gannou.

As if knocking off an excellent contender isn't bad enough, it doesn't do THAT much more for N'Gannou, either. Were N'Gannou to lose, he would be completely dead as a contender. That wouldn't exactly be fair given the tough opponents and stylistic match-ups he faced this year, and that none of them finished him.

But with N'Gannou winning, he is STILL a win or two away from contendership. And it only proves that he has Bladyes' number, not that he has figured out his problems and is once again a force.

TLDR version-

The two main fights were lose-lose for the organization, as opposed to the win-win scenarios Joe Silva would regularly make. You knocked off the best, most interesting title contender at heavyweight AND the hottest prospect in heavyweight MMA on the same night, and got little to nothing for it in return.

Take a bow, Dumb and Dumber. Take a bow.
 
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I get what you're saying but at this stage if you can't beat Overeem then do you really belong in the top 10?
 
Good post. I agree with everything you said, especially about the Overeem-Pavlovich match-up.
 
I get what you're saying but at this stage if you can't beat Overeem then do you really belong in the top 10?

Pavlovich is 26 and began his career less than 4 years ago. He has plenty of years and improvement ahead of him. Why throw him in there against a still dangerous Overeem that counters and replicates his own style?

If you wanted to give him a name, why not an Arlovksi or Oleynik, who pose massively less risk, and in the case of Oleynik, would make him more relevant in case of victory? And if not a name, what about a Junior Albini?
 
you sound salty brah, sorry your guy got beaten to a pulp off overeem
 
Pavlovich is 26 and began his career less than 4 years ago. He has plenty of years and improvement ahead of him. Why throw him in there against a still dangerous Overeem that counters and replicates his own style?

If you wanted to give him a name, why not an Arlovksi or Oleynik, who pose massively less risk, and in the case of Oleynik, would make him more relevant in case of victory? And if not a name, what about a Junior Albini?
Eh maybe you're right. Did he ask for the Reem?
 
you sound salty brah, sorry your guy got beaten to a pulp off overeem

You are comically off-base here. I made a lot of money betting on N'Gannou in the main event and have been a huge fan of Overeem for over 15 years, since his early PRIDE days. I had never even seen Pavlovich fight until earlier this week. Great card for me, awful one for the UFC.

This is what happens when semi-literate retards assume, though.

Eh maybe you're right. Did he ask for the Reem?

Who knows? But if he did, that's where a good matchmaker should tell him no.

For instance, right now Maycee Barber is calling out Mackenzie Dern. Any sensible matchmaker realizes this is an awful match-up to make at this stage in their respective careers, though.
 
While I was always far more of a PRIDE fan in the early to mid 2000s, I was consistently impressed with the job that Joe Silva, the then UFC matchmaker, did. The matches were always sensible, frequently intriguing, and would work in building up a new star regardless of who won.

After taking a break from seriously following MMA, I return earlier this year to find that Joe Silva has retired and been replaced by Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard. I wanted to give them the chance, but after the most recent event, it's clear that they're the Dumb and Dumber of MMA, and at least slightly responsible for the UFC's current woes.

Consider the two main events, shall we?

First up we have Sergey Pavlovich versus Alistair Overeem. Pavlovich is the biggest prospect in all of heavyweight MMA and a potential future world champion. He is big, powerful, moves well, strikes beautifully, and is difficult to take or keep down.

So what do you do? Do you match him up with a mid-level, name fighter that accenuates his strengths and allows him to get a highlight reel knockout in his debut?

Of course not! You match him up with Alistair Overeem, a danger to Pavlovich since he brings a very similar skillset to the table. It's classical lose-lose booking here.

Overeem wins, and so what? After brutal knockout losses to N'Gannou and Blaydes, a win over a new guy only proves that he isn't completely washed up, nothing more. No one is clamoring to see Overeem fight for a title thanks to this win.

Meanwhile, you've derailed a huge prospect in Pavlovich in a major way. If he does become a big star eventually, the early knockout loss to a very past his prime Overeem will be used to discredit him for years to come.

But what if Pavlovich had won? Would it have given him THAT much steam to destroy N'Gannou's and Blaydes' leftovers? Not really. Not any more than if he had beaten a far friendlier match-up in an Arlovski or Oleynik, for instance. Meanwhile, a third straight loss would have completely killed Overeem as any kind of significant name.

Let's move on to the main event, which is even worse.

On the one hand, you have Curtis Blaydes, a guy who was either the top contender for the heavyweight crown, or second after Miocic. A heavily hyped, respected guy that Cormier had paid massive respect to and said he would have defended against if he wasn't retiring at 40.

So what do you do? Why, place him in match-up against a faded, enigmatic contender who is a uniquely bad match-up, and had already beaten him once before.

If Bladyes wins, it does nothing for him. He is no closer to the belt, and N'Gannou would be dismissed as a flawed headcase.

But if Blaydes loses, which happened, he is knocked off as a serious contender and can't easily get back there. Nor can he be easily promoted in that role even if he comes back and wins his next few, as many will dismiss him due to being beaten not once, but twice by N'Gannou.

As if knocking off an excellent contender isn't bad enough, it doesn't do THAT much more for N'Gannou, either. Were N'Gannou to lose, he would be completely dead as a contender. That wouldn't exactly be fair given the tough opponents and stylistic match-ups he faced this year, and that none of them finished him.

But with N'Gannou winning, he is STILL a win or two away from contendership. And it only proves that he has Bladyes' number, not that he has figured out his problems and is once again a force.

TLDR version-

The two main fights were lose-lose for the organization, as opposed to the win-win scenarios Joe Silva would regularly make. You knocked off the best, most interesting title contender at heavyweight AND the hottest prospect in heavyweight MMA on the same night, and got little to nothing for it in return.

Take a bow, Dumb and Dumber. Take a bow.

Joe Silvas prime was when UFC had 4-20 events a year. Now they have 500 fighters under contract and 46 events a year or something.

For fans and media to argue matchmaking when we have 0 knowledge of contract details and what gos on behind the scence seems pointless. Joe Silva himself stated that he couldnt do hes job at the end becsuse more fighters declined fights, and UFC is forced to offer fighters fights every X month per contract, so a lot of matchmaking became basic math and has little to do with the ideal match ups. Sometimes I bet UFC has to call up unknown talent to debut in the UFC against a top 10 fighters to be able to offer that top 10 fighter a fight. UFC is not a small «family» business anymore where matchmaking is 100% about how the fighters match up against each other.
 
You are comically off-base here. I made a lot of money betting on N'Gannou in the main event and have been a huge fan of Overeem for over 15 years, since his early PRIDE days. I had never even seen Pavlovich fight until earlier this week. Great card for me, awful one for the UFC.

This is what happens when semi-literate retards assume, though.



Who knows? But if he did, that's where a good matchmaker should tell him no.

For instance, right now Maycee Barber is calling out Mackenzie Dern. Any sensible matchmaker realizes this is an awful match-up to make at this stage in their respective careers, though.
I guess they have been becoming more like boxing since Conor cherry picked opponents. Hopefully we go back to best against the best. SO many fights we have wanted would have been done if the Irish rat wasn't allowed to do whatever.
 
Intriguing read, but I had no problem with the match-ups. Pavlovich will learn a lot from the loss, still has a great record, and is young...he'll have an opportunity to bounce back and redeem himself with his next fight. It was a good wake-up call for him, and I'm sure that he and his team were thrilled that they had this opportunity to fight a top guy. Overeem needed a lower-level fighter match-up to get his confidence back, to let everyone know that he's still one of the elite. Many of his fans were doubting that. So, I'm sure that Overeem and his team were thrilled by the match-up as well.

Blaydes/Ngannou - Good for Ngannou, going in there with some added confidence, knowing that he already beat the guy. Good for Blaydes, having a chance for a big payback, which every fighter seems to want. Good for MMA fans, getting an opportunity to watch style vs. style at the highest level. Didn't turn out to be much of a watch, but that's the unpredictable nature of MMA fighting for you. It was still an exciting albeit very brief fight.
 
You are comically off-base here. I made a lot of money betting on N'Gannou in the main event and have been a huge fan of Overeem for over 15 years, since his early PRIDE days. I had never even seen Pavlovich fight until earlier this week. Great card for me, awful one for the UFC.

This is what happens when semi-literate retards assume, though.



Who knows? But if he did, that's where a good matchmaker should tell him no.

For instance, right now Maycee Barber is calling out Mackenzie Dern. Any sensible matchmaker realizes this is an awful match-up to make at this stage in their respective careers, though.

get over yourself dude and post the betslip, it was a great match up young vs old and both with plenty of KOs on their resume. even with the loss it's not like his career is over.
 
Joe Silvas prime was when UFC had 4-20 events a year. Now they have 500 fighters under contract and 46 events a year or something.

39, actually, but you're absolutely correct. Matchmaking for the UFC is a more complex job these days. However, that doesn't mean you throw up your hands and give up.

And in the wake of complexity, you also don't hire two absolute morons who make such basic blunders.

And yes, we don't know all the details of who rejected what fight. However, and this is the key point, there is absolutely no scenario in which the two main fights for this card were a good idea.
 
Pavlovich was a -120 favorite.

Blaydes was also favored, winning gives him a claim to a title shot.

I agree that Joe Silva was better than the current regime, but I don't really agree with TS' logic.
 
I liked watching the fights and making money off them but I agree that the booking was silly. Especially the main event since Blaydes was basically already a proven title contender.
 
The matchmaking was shit, no doubt about it.

A lot of people mistakenly thought it would be an easy win for Blaydes, which was likely the UFC's logic in making it happen. Dana has some weird grudge against Ngannou and it's highly likely that's the reason this pointless rematch was made.
 
Pavlovich was a -120 favorite.

And? (Also, you realize -120 is a very tiny favorite, right?)

ralphus said:
Blaydes was also favored, winning gives him a claim to a title shot.

Blaydes had a claim BEFORE the N'Gannou rematch, one that even Daniel Cormier promoted. Now he no longer has one, thanks to Dumb and Dumber.
 
And? (Also, you realize -120 is a very tiny favorite, right?)



He had a claim BEFORE the N'Gannou rematch, one that even Daniel Cormier promoted. Now he no longer has one, thanks to Dumb and Dumber.

Then he never deserved the claim in the first place after getting blown out in 45 seconds.

Curious as to your proposed matchmaking for this card.
 
Then he never deserved the claim in the first place after getting blown out in 45 seconds.

And Chuck Liddell was never the best light heavyweight in the world. That didn't stop the UFC from making an absolute fortune off him while credibly promoting him as such.

Promotions aren't supposed to expose and trash their own top contenders and prospects.

ralphus1 said:
Curious as to your matchmaking for this card.

I gave multiple alternative suggestions for Pavlovich's debut in my first post. As for Blaydes, have him fight Miocic.
 
I could see the logic for Pavlovich/Overeem but I agree the rematch didn't need to happen (at least until it was in the context of a title fight).
 
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