UFN 140 Ponzinibbio vs Magny

[Bestonian]

I highly doubt hitting too hard is her main problem when it comes to breaking her hands. More likely poor technique and/or accuracy.

Show me any woman with 86% KO/TKO statistics. Strawweight none the less.

 

[weedreference]

1.83 now. Great! I’ve been itching to bet Praz.

I can see why the line was set where it was. To me it's an amazing matchup for Prazeres. He won't have to worry about striking defense which will help him stuff shots, he's great in scrambles, Fabinski could be in big trouble if he ends up on bottom since he's probably not used to being there, and Praz will have plenty of energy at 170.

Fabinski beat Meek, but Meek had a horrible gameplan and isn't methodical enough to have good TDD. And his getups are terrible.

 

[weedreference]

Show me any woman with 86% KO/TKO statistics. Strawweight none the less.

You've proved my point. There's only so much force a strawweight woman can generate. Stats are a bad way to assess it. There are men who never break their hands (McGregor, for instance), yet hit way, way harder.

 

[hard bondage of course]

I don't know anything about Calvillo's hands but Botelho has pretty fragile hands - hits too hard for her own good, regular hand injuries.

The problem is that her arm keeps breaking, not her hands - recurring serious limb breaks are much worse than broken hands, because the breaks tend to be more severe, individual small bones can't be fused together, and it's much easier to stop using one hand during recovery than it is to immobilize one whole limb. It may not be a factor in this fight, but it's definitely going to shorten her career if she breaks it again (which is likely).

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Hi, guys! I am new to the forum. This is my first post! First I want to excuse my poor english it is not my native tongue, I learn english from watching movies and youtube videos. So that's that.
Second thing I want to add my humble thoughts about this event bettingwise.

I like Ponz and Tractor a lot. They are here just to do the job and nothing more. Just win no matter what. And they both have very poor opposition in from of them. Magny is spamming weak jabs and unset up legkicks and pushkicks which is all recepie for disaster. He does not counter (even when he does it is a weak punch), which is maybe the weakest spot in Ponz's striking, he is open for counters a lot. I don't see Magny accomplishing anything with his bodylocks also. I think we have a very clear winner here. Ponzinibbio beat a lot better version of Magny in Sean Strickland years ago. Not to mention Magny's body changed a lot since USADA. I think I am the only one who noticed. See the comparison below that I made.



Michel has all the key advantages in this match-up. He has the speed, the grappling and even I think the wrestling. He is just smaller. I don't even think the polish guy has the strength advantage.
I can see Fabinski go for takedown and I get himself into a guillotine or something. Even Emil Meek caught him in a ninja-choke for a moment! When they were on their feet, Fabinski was just a punching bag. Prazeres will be too fast for him, and on the ground I do not think he can match him as a technique and if he is looking to get the fight there he will be submitted sooner or later.

I had been arguing online with random guys and with my friends about the girl fight on the card. Everybody is confidently picking winners and even worse - betting on this fight. I say avoid this mess! Here me out why:
Cynthia is not good standing up. Too much empty movement and hitting the air. But in women's divisions (and not only) this is often rewarded by the judges. The fights look different live and often judges can not see which hits are connecting and which are not, and often they give the fight to the one fighter who is at least visibly more active. Also, Poliana is chucking those kicks without a care in the world. Calvillo's TD game is almost excluisively catching kicks and single legs. Or if you take her down she scramble and take your back or takes mount. Shitty women fight IQ is a consern for me. Poliana is going to throw a naked kick, like she always do, Calvillo catches it and it is a mess from then on. Even if Calvillo could not take her one time down, who is to say she does not win a sloppy kickboxing fight? Poliana is a mess on the defence, I dare to say a thrash. And she is too easily pinned to the fence. This fight could go either way, this is a fight to stay away for beting! And what if Calvillo looked like she was about to die on the scale? Come one, didn't we learn the lesson with the scale thing. This is not mean anything. All fighters look bad when dehydrated. Some worse than others. When they put back the liquids in their body they are fine. She could lose this fight of course but I won't solely because of the cutting weight issue. I can give you a lot of examples of fighters look bad on the scales and win. Jimmy Rivera comes to mind. He was in very rough shape vs Almeida on the scales and won.

A lot of trap fights I see in the rest of the card. A lot of underdogs could win. Like Powell or Heinisch... Can you really trust Rountree that won't shit the bed? I mean, come on. There are very few spots in this event, where you can put your money and feel relatively safe for your bet.

That is what I think at least. Thanks if you read all this, guys!

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Sasaki turned SSJ on the weigh ins , Im worried about my Pantoja bet

 

[Bestonian]

Sasaki turned SSJ on the weigh ins , Im worried about my Pantoja bet

You rightfully should. Sasaki is being slept on, that ground game is nasty.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Ponzinibbio beat a lot better version of Magny in Sean Strickland years ago. Not to mention Magny's body changed a lot since USADA. I think I am the only one who noticed. See the comparison below that I made.

Physique-wise he looks virtually the same... second one has noticeably cooler lighting, making him look more pale and ' less healthy'. The less pronounced lighting also doesn't create as much shadows on the bottom planes of the muscles of his arms.

 

[Bestonian]

Just re-watched Ponzi vs Perry and it was much closer than I expected it to be. Perry got wrestlefucked in R3 but before that the two rounds were seriously close. And Perry isn't exactly an elite fighter so what does that say about Ponzi?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Just re-watched Ponzi vs Perry and it was much closer than I expected it to be. Perry got wrestlefucked in R3 but before that the two rounds were seriously close. And Perry isn't exactly an elite fighter so what does that say about Ponzi?

Perry is not an elite fighter but it is very hard to look good vs. him. Look at the guys that beat him - Jouban, Griffin and Ponz had to do a very cautious approach. The guy hits insanely hard and has granite chin, what do you want them to do? Even if you are much better than him you still can get clocked. Only Cowboy managed to look good against him and that is because he finished him quickly. I think Santiago did very well in this fight. Perry made him work extra hard and he still won 2 and maybe 3 rounds without any doubt. Perry was for sure stronger physically and with the stronger punch from them two. Jouban was maybe equal or better athlete that is why he won without really have to dig deep like Ponz had to.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Everybody is confidently picking winners and even worse - betting on this fight. I say avoid this mess! Here me out why:
Cynthia is not good standing up. Too much empty movement and hitting the air. But in women's divisions (and not only) this is often rewarded by the judges. The fights look different live and often judges can not see which hits are connecting and which are not, and often they give the fight to the one fighter who is at least visibly more active. Also, Poliana is chucking those kicks without a care in the world. Calvillo's TD game is almost excluisively catching kicks and single legs. Or if you take her down she scramble and take your back or takes mount. Shitty women fight IQ is a consern for me. Poliana is going to throw a naked kick, like she always do, Calvillo catches it and it is a mess from then on. Even if Calvillo could not take her one time down, who is to say she does not win a sloppy kickboxing fight? Poliana is a mess on the defence, I dare to say a thrash. And she is too easily pinned to the fence. This fight could go either way, this is a fight to stay away for beting! And what if Calvillo looked like she was about to die on the scale? Come one, didn't we learn the lesson with the scale thing. This is not mean anything. All fighters look bad when dehydrated. Some worse than others. When they put back the liquids in their body they are fine. She could lose this fight of course but I won't solely because of the cutting weight issue. I can give you a lot of examples of fighters look bad on the scales and win. Jimmy Rivera comes to mind. He was in very rough shape vs Almeida on the scales and won.

This is all sounds very good, except it has little to do with what we've seen on tape from either fighter:

-Calvillo doesn't shoot single legs at all, and while it might have happened exactly once, she very, very rarely catches kicks. (It didn't happen a single time against Calderwood, who threw many naked, lazy ones)

Instead, most of her takedowns are trips (like many fighters with a BJJ base for grappling), and against Robertson, she got a double from a clinch.

I don't know how you extrapolate that to any success against Botelho, who is a flat-out better wrestler (with an actual shot, and a competent double at that, especially by female standards), much bigger and stronger, and wasn't taken down a single time by common opponent Pearl Gonzales, despite Pearl out-muscling and taking Calvillo down several times during the first two rounds.

-One accurate thing you said is that Botelho's striking defense probably sucks. It certainly did back in 2014 and 2015, the last times we saw her being hit cleanly in the face. Not surprising either considering she started training in 2013.

However, this isn't much of an issue against Calvillo, who isn't knocking her out or hurting her, anyways. The only issue is if Botelho can catch Calvillo.

-To that extent, Calvillo looking so depleted yesterday morning is a big deal. How likely is she to do a beautiful job moving around the cage for 3 rounds in row, beating Botelho to the punch, and avoiding a slew of crushing right hands and kicks to her legs and body if her body is so ravaged?

Pretty unlikely. At -165, I will take that chance.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

At -165, I will take that chance.

PolarBear, you have sound logic, but still you are trusting your money on a chick fight. You are braver man than me.

 

[MMAOracle]

To that extent, Calvillo looking so depleted yesterday morning is a big deal. How likely is she to do a beautiful job moving around the cage for 3 rounds in row, beating Botelho to the punch, and avoiding a slew of crushing right hands and kicks to her legs and body if her body is so ravaged? Pretty unlikely. At -165, I will take that chance.

shoot. I am usually never impulsive but I did something fooking retarded. I saw the weigh in and I went 6u on botehlo. I was thinking there is no way that Calvillo could win. However, I saw the latest photo and that makes me second guess my rash decision. I hope to God we are right polar!!!

 

[Gugabe]

You rightfully should. Sasaki is being slept on, that ground game is nasty.

I now understand why I make so much money on submission props. Sasaki's looked good against D- grapplers, that last fighter he was barely a blue belt at any reputable gym. Pantoja's getting a rerun of the Moreno fight against a slower, less-dangerous, less-durable version and probably finishes Sasaki by something savage.

Perry is not an elite fighter but it is very hard to look good vs. him. Look at the guys that beat him - Jouban, Griffin and Ponz had to do a very cautious approach. The guy hits insanely hard and has granite chin, what do you want them to do? Even if you are much better than him you still can get clocked. Only Cowboy managed to look good against him and that is because he finished him quickly. I think Santiago did very well in this fight. Perry made him work extra hard and he still won 2 and maybe 3 rounds without any doubt. Perry was for sure stronger physically and with the stronger punch from them two. Jouban was maybe equal or better athlete that is why he won without really have to dig deep like Ponz had to.

I was pretty huge on Cowboy as a dog, and was actually sweating it a bit prior to Perry going for the TD. Perry was winning the clinch exchanges and Cowboy wasn't doing a hell of a lot in the striking.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

PolarBear, you have sound logic, but still you are trusting your money on a chick fight. You are braver man than me.

Chick fights are also much lower-level and primitive, which means easier to understand and consider all the variables for. There are also far fewer sudden finishes, which means less variance.

Anyways, after watching an exhaustive amount of tape on both Rountree and Walker, I decided that Walker is just way too sloppy, even after the improvement shown in the da Silva Contender fight, and was likely brought in to give Rountree a nice highlight reel knockout. This is true even if Rountree's cardio is as wretched as it was against the Polish dude at the end of last year.

Put 2.5 units on Rountree winning in round 1 at +145, by far the most likely result.

 

[clemente]

Does no bookie offer bets on RIZIN?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

PolarBear, I read the whole thread now. I saw that you are mentioning Botelho a lot of times and seems you are trying to defend your pick a bit too much.

I've been there before, Polar. I was like 110% sure Nate is going to win the rematch v Conor and was writing extensive breakdowns of the fight and deep analysis of Nate and Conor previous wins and losses (on forum in my country). I was so sure I had a winner that ignored all the red flags that this is a TRAP fight for betting.
But was I really sure? I wrote this much to inrease my confidence in my pick. I was hyping myself up. Deep inside I knew it was not bulletproof pick.

I mean... I am betting on Nate Diaz who never gives two shits if he'll win or lose, he just want to get paid, and the book of how to beat him is out there for ages too.

But I rather chose to not think about that and to think about the money that I wanted to win with my bet. I know you are very confident in that Botelho girl, but think about it for a second - if you are really sure would you write so much in her defence?

Somebody mentioned Tractor by sub is around +500. I think a bet like this is not stupid at all. This is very good odds for something that I can easily see happening. Even Meek got Fabinski in a ninja choke for a moment, can Prazeres do something similar and actually finish the choke? Sure he can!

 

[raketmannen]

Does no bookie offer bets on RIZIN?

bet-at-home always does, that's the only one I know about

 

[OutRun]

You rightfully should. Sasaki is being slept on, that ground game is nasty.

I'm usually a big-time Sasaki shill but I didn't have time to watch tape on Pantoja this week so I stayed away.

 

[Bestonian]

I'm usually a big-time Sasaki shill but I didn't have time to watch tape on Pantoja this week so I stayed away.

Pantoja is really good. But totally not worth a play at 1.30 odds.