UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

Just to play devil's advocate here, you can still make an argument for one guy being a fav if both guys are flakes. If both guys show up and perform, who do you favor?

My point was I think it's crazy for people to play Johnson as a -155 favourite. I think I'm going to pass because I'm sure there will better lines on the card once they are all released but if Fili becomes a bigger dog I'm hitting Fili for a unit because I think he is going to land some takedowns, so somewhere around the range of +135 to +150 if it hits there. If Johnson hits +125 to +130, I'll hit him for a unit. If odds don't hit my preferable ranges I'll pass. Nothing wrong with passing on a fight you aren't confident betting on or getting really good odds on.

If both guys show up, I think it's a 50/50 fight, so I'll take the dog at those ranges. Current line is reflected (61% Johnson favoured to win) as if the fight would be a pure standup fight and Fili won't take Johnson down at all. If Fili can get Bermudez down, he can take Johnson down imo. Every card, we always complain about how dumb that fighter was and what he did was dumb, so I always take into account fight IQ.

I don't bet a lot of fights each card as you can see in the official sherdog betting threads and only ML and over/unders because that's all I have access to.
 
Just to play devil's advocate here, you can still make an argument for one guy being a fav if both guys are flakes. If both guys show up and perform, who do you favor?

Honestly? Fili probably when I think about it. His TD's and ground game are both above average. He just has seemed to sometimes be content striking. I think if he really focused on getting it to the mat he could (although that's not easy or a given). Once on the mat though, it's a true mismatch. MJ isn't just a flake on the ground, hes truly lacking basic fundamental skills that anyone at his level (or even close) should have. He's relied on speed and boxing to cover his flaws and they have at times but I think everyone has figured him out.

He KO'd Poirier with a fantastic shot. In a rematch I cannot envision anything other than DP hitting an early TD and then laying waste to MJ.
 
Last edited:
Pulled the trigger on Gaethje +150 for 1.5u. Not sure Vick has the power and pocket boxing to shut down his offense. He damn near outlasted Dustin and we know his offense is some of the best in the business. Those leg kicks might snap Vick's chicken legs.
 
Pulled the trigger on Hill -130. Just .75u and will hope it drops more so I can add more.
 
Pulled the trigger on Hill -130. Just .75u and will hope it drops more so I can add more.
You can always wait for her decision line. There’s probably a 1% chance she finishes casey.

Of course we may be waiting 2 weeks for props
 
James Vick sounds real confident in his interview on the Anik & Florian podcast. Says he prepared for dealing with Gaethje's leg kicks and that if Gaethje tries to wrestle he'll just gas himself out faster. About 1 hour in.

 
You can always wait for her decision line. There’s probably a 1% chance she finishes casey.

Of course we may be waiting 2 weeks for props

I will hit that too depending on odds but my guess is it won't be too far off her ML. And if $ comes in on Hill, her dec line might end up being worse by the time it opens. I didn't want to risk being stuck with something like Hill -160 and Hill dec -140.
 
When the line is close like -130, I feel totally comfortable playing the ML and not waiting for a decision prop. Who knows what happens with line movement like mkess101 said, and if she happens to get a stoppage of any kind you don't kick yourself for only playing the prop.
 
Yeah after her performance with karate hottie Im on Hill. Cant trust Casey anymore and Hill has striking advantage

She got robbed against Waterson imo. She’s big for strawweight and Hill is small. She’s at a disadvantage on the feet from a technical standpoint but I don’t see Hill doing anything other than scoring on her if it stays on the feet, Hill doesn’t have the power to hurt her imo. Casey has the advantage on the ground by a long shot and if she has the IQ/capability to get the fight there I think she dominates. At +115, I think it’s worth that risk.
 
She got robbed against Waterson imo. She’s big for strawweight and Hill is small. She’s at a disadvantage on the feet from a technical standpoint but I don’t see Hill doing anything other than scoring on her if it stays on the feet, Hill doesn’t have the power to hurt her imo. Casey has the advantage on the ground by a long shot and if she has the IQ/capability to get the fight there I think she dominates. At +115, I think it’s worth that risk.

Casey is dumb enough to stay on the bottom working for subs and let Hill stay on top and win the round. Hill can win on the feet and get back to her feet from the ground easily. Casey does nothing to keep the fight on the ground. Casey is as dumb as a brick in there as opposed to Hill who generally shows good fight IQ
 
Casey has 2 takedowns out of 4 attempted in 8 UFC fights, I wouldn't bet on her using one of her 0.5 takedown attempts per fight to ride out a decision over Hill. We're probably going to see three rounds of her missing strikes and talking trash while she gets steadily outworked.

There's probably more fun to be had from guessing which relatively obscure anime or videogame character her opponent will dress as at the weighins this time, I've got Junior from Body Blows or Bongo Heracles of Star Fleet/X Bomber...they're longshots, but 247VegasBetPalaceUSBook365 had some crazy prices!
 
Casey has 2 takedowns out of 4 attempted in 8 UFC fights, I wouldn't bet on her using one of her 0.5 takedown attempts per fight to ride out a decision over Hill. We're probably going to see three rounds of her missing strikes and talking trash while she gets steadily outworked.

There's probably more fun to be had from guessing which relatively obscure anime or videogame character her opponent will dress as at the weighins this time, I've got Junior from Body Blows or Bongo Heracles of Star Fleet/X Bomber...they're longshots, but 247VegasBetPalaceUSBook365 had some crazy prices!
And be sure to mention who those two takedowns came against, Christina Stanciu who is a complete bum that had no business being in the UFC. Great match up for Hill, she'll keep it standing and use her speed and superior striking to get the easy win
 
She got robbed against Waterson imo. She’s big for strawweight and Hill is small. She’s at a disadvantage on the feet from a technical standpoint but I don’t see Hill doing anything other than scoring on her if it stays on the feet, Hill doesn’t have the power to hurt her imo. Casey has the advantage on the ground by a long shot and if she has the IQ/capability to get the fight there I think she dominates. At +115, I think it’s worth that risk.
"If she has the IQ/capability"

she doesn't, keep wishing though
 
What do you guys think about Calderwoods TDD?

If Faria comes in as a underdog, i could possibly put money on her.
 
What do you guys think about Calderwoods TDD?

If Faria comes in as a underdog, i could possibly put money on her.
I'd be surprised if Calderwood was the value side, UK fighters frequently end up juiced past value due to the ravenous betting appetite of the UK. Even look at the huge flood of money on Brett Johns towards the last 48 hours before last card.
 
This may be crazy talk, but I'm seeing real value on Ellenberger here at almost +400.

Barberena is not a hard hitter and just not a good technical fighter in my opinion. Jake's durability has been the real issue for him but Bryan is not the best guy to be taking advantage of that. Jake is still a capable, sharp striker as we saw against Perry for a little over a round before getting nuked.
 
This may be crazy talk, but I'm seeing real value on Ellenberger here at almost +400.

Barberena is not a hard hitter and just not a good technical fighter in my opinion. Jake's durability has been the real issue for him but Bryan is not the best guy to be taking advantage of that. Jake is still a capable, sharp striker as we saw against Perry for a little over a round before getting nuked.

He has 9 wins by ko from 13 wins and he dropped Leon harrrdd last fight. Jake is a fossil who since looking ok in r1 against Perry has been iced unconscious by Perry in r2 in one of the worst ko's you will ever see, and tko'd by a sole knee to the belly by Saunders. He's probably going to be massively gun shy.
 
He has 9 wins by ko from 13 wins and he dropped Leon harrrdd last fight. Jake is a fossil who since looking ok in r1 against Perry has been iced unconscious by Perry in r2 in one of the worst ko's you will ever see, and tko'd by a sole knee to the belly by Saunders. He's probably going to be massively gun shy.
Also what's Ellenberger's path to victory? Barbarena's incredibly tough and sets a hard pace. Don't see it being easy to get a KO or a dec over him.
 
Also what's Ellenberger's path to victory? Barbarena's incredibly tough and sets a hard pace. Don't see it being easy to get a KO or a dec over him.

Exactly he's not out voluming Barb.
 
Back
Top