- Joined
- Jul 10, 2017
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Just to play devil's advocate here, you can still make an argument for one guy being a fav if both guys are flakes. If both guys show up and perform, who do you favor?
My point was I think it's crazy for people to play Johnson as a -155 favourite. I think I'm going to pass because I'm sure there will better lines on the card once they are all released but if Fili becomes a bigger dog I'm hitting Fili for a unit because I think he is going to land some takedowns, so somewhere around the range of +135 to +150 if it hits there. If Johnson hits +125 to +130, I'll hit him for a unit. If odds don't hit my preferable ranges I'll pass. Nothing wrong with passing on a fight you aren't confident betting on or getting really good odds on.
If both guys show up, I think it's a 50/50 fight, so I'll take the dog at those ranges. Current line is reflected (61% Johnson favoured to win) as if the fight would be a pure standup fight and Fili won't take Johnson down at all. If Fili can get Bermudez down, he can take Johnson down imo. Every card, we always complain about how dumb that fighter was and what he did was dumb, so I always take into account fight IQ.
I don't bet a lot of fights each card as you can see in the official sherdog betting threads and only ML and over/unders because that's all I have access to.