UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

Casey Sub pays 10-1. Kind of like that. Really active guard. Hill probably not attempting any takedowns but might end up on top in scrambles.
 
George Sullivan is far and away the worst fighter on this card.

I am confident in that.
 
If Justin survives first 2 rounds than Vick is fucked.
James looked tired against Trinaldo who didnt put much volume on him, second thing he didnt looked good on weigh ins.
Oh and I found a interesting statistic about Vicks legkick defense, doesnt look good either.
Joe Duffy – 9 succesful / on 10 legkicks
Polo Reyes – 7/10
Abel Trujillo – 4/4
Beneil Dariush – 4/4
Glaico Franca – 12/15
Justin kicks alot on the leg so if chin holds up than he will win this fight because he is the better fighter.

I like Gaethje in this fight and Gaethje will land leg kicks, he is one of the few UFC fighters that can effectively land naked leg kicks albeit he does get countered sometimes but man he chops legs like no tomorrow that slow his opponents down.

I'm going to reiterate what Mkess and Raketmann mentioned earlier is how Gaethje handles Vick's clinch game. Gaethje blocks shots by putting his hands up covering his face and is stationary. Vick can grab the clinch from there and pull him down and knee him out and being stuck in the clinch with a lot bigger opponent can drain your energy trying to fight it off.

Hopefully Gaethje finishes him early and never gets to that position and teaches Vick a lesson for talking so much shit. Looking forward to the violence.
 
MEH CHANGED MY MIND

Aug 25 11:45 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24206 Angela Hill (vs. Cortney Casey) -130 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 10:15 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24218 Tim Williams / Eryk Anders Under 1½ -155 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 11:15 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24246 Bryan Barberena (vs. Jake Ellenberger) -450 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 08:40 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24225 John Moraga / Deiveson Figueiredo Over 2½ -260 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 09:40 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24250 Warlley Alves (vs. James Krause) -400 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 06:35 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24242 Mickey Gall (vs. George Sullivan) -375 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 07:05 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24237 Jon Tuck / Drew Dober Over 2½ -220 for Fight Lines
Aug 25 08:05 PM EST - U.F.C. UFC Fight Night 135 - 24229 Luke Sanders / Rani Yahya Over 2½ -115 for Fight Lines
8 Team Parlay 500.00 USD 10,104.31 USD
Bet Slip Total Risk Win
500.00 USD 10,104.31 USD
 
FWIW I have 22, 8 dollar DK lineups, all containing Mickey Gall.

I do not think he will be heavily owned and this will give me leverage over the field if he does what I think he will do.

It worked with Moicano last card.

I also have zero James Vick. Even if he wins a decision it is possible he doesnt end up on the optimal lineup and I will gain leverage that way as well. I need him to not finish early.
 
My favorite DK plays are Gall, Gaethje, MJ, and Sanders.

I also like Barbarena for obvious reasons but couldn't fit him in much.
 
FWIW I have 22, 8 dollar DK lineups, all containing Mickey Gall.

I do not think he will be heavily owned and this will give me leverage over the field if he does what I think he will do.

It worked with Moicano last card.

I also have zero James Vick. Even if he wins a decision it is possible he doesnt end up on the optimal lineup and I will gain leverage that way as well. I need him to not finish early.

I disagree about Vick. He **potentially** has monstrous value depending on how the fight plays out. I tried looking but couldn't find it, but I almost guarantee that Gaethje's opponents in his last 2 fights (Eddie and Dustin) both were the highest scoring DK fighters on each card. Gaethje absorbs the most sig strikes per minute in UFC history if I'm not mistaken. So even if Vick were to win a decision, he'd likely land so many sig strikes over 5 rounds that it would end up as a huge score. And if he were to get for example a round 3 finish, he's still going to score huge.

Obviously if Gaethje finishes him that all goes out the window, but if you like Vick to win he should absolutely be in lineups. He'll either get an early finish, or rack up a shit ton of pts over the course of the fight. And he's cheaper than Gall, Barb, Anders, etc.
 
Yes, the parlay stays alive with the cancelled leg missing and the overall odds adjusted or becomes a single bet with adjusted odds if it was only a two leg parlay.
That’s fucked. Can I message dimes and try and cancel it.
 
Tim Williams has good skills. But he’s also past his prime. He was signed to the UFC, disclosed he took a banned substance and took a small suspension before his Piechota fight. Despite his skills, his physicality seems to be lacking. He came to spar at a local gym a few weeks ago and apparently had a pretty bad elbow injury. Damn shame they’re giving him such stiff competition.
 
I disagree about Vick. He **potentially** has monstrous value depending on how the fight plays out. I tried looking but couldn't find it, but I almost guarantee that Gaethje's opponents in his last 2 fights (Eddie and Dustin) both were the highest scoring DK fighters on each card. Gaethje absorbs the most sig strikes per minute in UFC history if I'm not mistaken. So even if Vick were to win a decision, he'd likely land so many sig strikes over 5 rounds that it would end up as a huge score. And if he were to get for example a round 3 finish, he's still going to score huge.

Obviously if Gaethje finishes him that all goes out the window, but if you like Vick to win he should absolutely be in lineups. He'll either get an early finish, or rack up a shit ton of pts over the course of the fight. And he's cheaper than Gall, Barb, Anders, etc.

Man, I hope this fight doesn't go to decision. With the long layoff, I have so many golf parlays and smaller org parlays that end with the ITD prop.
 
Why would u want to cancel a parlay is just rolling over effectively
Well if they don’t adjust the odds, I guess it’s worth it. But if they adjust the odds without Zabit the price would go from + money to - money. I kinda just want the money back to make a new parlay.
 
Man, I hope this fight doesn't go to decision. With the long layoff, I have so many golf parlays and smaller org parlays that end with the ITD prop.

It would be a surprise, but honestly think of how many fights where you think "No way this goes the distance", and it does. Tuivasa/AA comes to mind as a recent one, but there are a ton of others obviously.

It really just depends on Gaethje though honestly. I think those of us who follow MMA this closely (betting and posting here) realize that he has 2 paths to choose. Continue what he's doing and be the most entertaining guy in MMA for another couple years before he's completely done, or change his style and be less entertaining but prolong his career. What he's doing just isn't sustainable (duh LOL) even into his mid-30's. You just cannot block punches with your face nonstop in order to land your own leg kicks and punches. I really, REALLY hope he is being conservative and investing all of his FOTN bonus $ so he has some sort of nest egg for when he's done.

I probably give this fight maybe a 20% chance of hitting the cards. And that's based purely on the fact that **maybe** the people who corner and care about Gaethje are drilling him nonstop to not fight the way he has been. To use some TD's, to keep his opposite hand up when he throws a leg kick, etc. If he were to do those things, this could potentially end up going a lot longer than people expect. If we see JG come out doing what he's been doing (way more likely because...well...it's the evidence we have--not just in his UFC fights but in WSOF too) then there is almost zero chance it sees the cards. He simply absorbs and deals too much damage for that.
 
Rani dec is +450. I can see him outscrambling Luke and winning the first 2 rounds but tiring and holding on for a decision win. Haven't pulled the trigger, but eyeing this one. Might take a small stab at it.
 
Well if they don’t adjust the odds, I guess it’s worth it. But if they adjust the odds without Zabit the price would go from + money to - money. I kinda just want the money back to make a new parlay.

You can't cancel a bet unless (maybe) it's under extenuating circumstances like a line mistake. Not only does every dollar play into what the line becomes, but you theoretically could have gained new information about the other legs of your parlay and it would be considered unfair. You'll get your money back if the others win, just not right now. The payout will adjust as if the Zabit fight was a push.
 
Tim Williams has good skills. But he’s also past his prime. He was signed to the UFC, disclosed he took a banned substance and took a small suspension before his Piechota fight. Despite his skills, his physicality seems to be lacking. He came to spar at a local gym a few weeks ago and apparently had a pretty bad elbow injury. Damn shame they’re giving him such stiff competition.

Yeah, he's at just an astounding athletic disadvantage here. This is basically a fight set up to "get Anders back on track" after he was so hesitant vs Machida. Would be pretty surprised if Williams makes it out of rd 1.
 
I'm pretty big on this card, have action on every fight except MJ-Fili and Alcantara - Sandhagen and will probably have some sort of bets on these fights as well.

Still have some bets pending and will post the Units+Odds later in the other thread, but these are my picks for now:

Vick ML
Hill ML / GTD
Barberena KO / DNGTD
Figueiredo ML / ITD
Anders - Williams u1.5 / DNGTD
Krause - Alves GTD (might hedge this bet, not feeling it anymore)
Sanchez - Perez u2.5 / DNGTD
Gall SUB
JoJo ML (at improved odds from a hedge with Faria ML)
Dober - Tuck GTD
Yahya ML

Feel like this is going to be a great card with a lot of great finishes and after the 3 week layoff I'm extra pumped and can't wait! Still the UFC would be smarter to do these layoffs before big PPV cards instead of cards like these.
 
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