UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

[Shoulder]

Johnson burned me so hard against Poirer and Elkins I promised I’ll never bet on his fights again. It’s auch a coin flip if he’ll look good or just totally flunk out.

Took Baethje for a unit, I’m a bit worried about this being so soon, and Vick has looked good but this should be a fight Gaethje wins. Leg kicks all day.

 

[mkess101]

When does betting Michael Johnson ever pay off? the guy is so unreliable as a favorite, sure he's a good striker with great speed. But he's also a massive front runner and quitter and not a guy you can trust at all. He's also taken massive damage and seem to be on the tail end of his career. The move to FW with nothing but desperation. His record speaks for itself.

Johnson is 3-7 as a favorite in the UFC LMAO, so unreliable

Well, his TDD isn't awful but he looks like a guy that should be fighting in a strip club parking lot any time he is actually forced to be on the mat. White belt level mistakes and has shown zero signs of fixing the gaping holes in his game.

Anyone who pays juice on him better pray Fili doesn't find a way to get it to the mat. Or we most likely see MJ yet again flop around like a fish on a boat deck before being subbed.

He's the modern day Melvin Guillard.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I have bet on Casey two fights in a row and her fight IQ is too painfully bad for me to touch her vs Hill even at +odds.

Yeah after her performance with karate hottie Im on Hill. Cant trust Casey anymore and Hill has striking advantage

 

[Dianabol]

Well, his TDD isn't awful but he looks like a guy that should be fighting in a strip club parking lot any time he is actually forced to be on the mat. White belt level mistakes and has shown zero signs of fixing the gaping holes in his game.

Anyone who pays juice on him better pray Fili doesn't find a way to get it to the mat. Or we most likely see MJ yet again flop around like a fish on a boat deck before being subbed.

He's the modern day Melvin Guillard.

Yeah I agree, his TDD is solid but once you get him on the mat he doesn't know what to do. Johnson will always be fast and dangerous early but he fades in almost every fight that gets out of the 1st round.

Won the 1st round vs Diaz then got boxed up
Won the 1st round vs Gaethje then got destroyed
Won the 1st round vs Elkins then quit

I don't think FW was a good move either, he looks weird physically and the extra weight he was to cut is just going to tax his already suspect gas tank more. You kinda saw that in the Elkins fight, when he got taken down and Elkins was taking his back, Johnson had enough space and time to explode and escape the position and he couldn't do it. Johnson also said in an interview that he doesn't know if he'll stay at FW, it all depends on this fight.

Johnson has taken a ridiculous amount of damage in the last few years. Diaz boxed the hell out of him, 135 significant strikes to the head. Khabib straight up tortured Johnson and gave him a life changing beating. Then Gaethje beat the hell out of him too. And to add to that he trains with Hooft and all the killers in that gym, I'm sure he takes plenty of damage there too.

Lost 5 of his last 6, 32 years old, past his prime and now he think he's a 145er

Fili is younger, fresher and still looks he's getting better. Fili should be to hold his own in the striking and you have to favor him down the stretch. Fili can wrestle too, one TD could change the fight. Fili talking real confident in interviews too, he's got the momentum.

Have to favor Fili. Johnson gonna end up in Bellator after this.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

So far I like Angela Hill and Markus Perez. Sanchez sucks

 

[Gugabe]

When does betting Michael Johnson ever pay off? the guy is so unreliable as a favorite, sure he's a good striker with great speed. But he's also a massive front runner and quitter and not a guy you can trust at all. He's also taken massive damage and seem to be on the tail end of his career. The move to FW with nothing but desperation. His record speaks for itself.

Johnson is 3-7 as a favorite in the UFC LMAO, so unreliable

I don't think Fili can take the shots that Elkins was absorbing in the first round. Fili's got a clear path to victory with the takedowns, but I feel that the line's a bit of an over-reaction. I'm waiting for MJ @ -120 or better, maybe even just keep it to the KO play.

Good news, sounds like a great pick for you to start your third-party tracking with! So we can all see just how good you are. Best part of it is that you can abandon tracking pages as easily as you do Sherdog accounts when you get something wrong!

Also if you're going to go on about unreliability, Fili's 4-3 in the UFC as a favorite and has lost multiple times at -300 or better.

 

[Dianabol]

Completely small and irrelevant track record, yes. And your prior plays are fairy dust, since you can't even keep a Sherdog forum account together for 5 seconds.. Sounding like Luca himself! You're also getting an awful lot of units down on TNC and Bellator prelims based on your record, hmm..... Nobody's gonna take a 4-figure unit gambler's action on that kinda shitfest unless they're a marked, demonstrable longterm loser. I respect your record, but you've been on the right side of a lot of iffy decs that are gonna even out once you get a real sample size. Nice beginning effort, though!

I got a crazy early line on Johnson which I played. Either side at +100 or better in a Gaethje fight is the money side, especially one where Gaethje came within moments of getting stopped. Elkins performance was dreadful, but I haven't put a cent down on Johnson in any form. I'm just saying I'm willing to take a swing if his price improves on the basis of Fili being a mediocre kickboxer.

LOL you got so many things wrong, firstly you can easily bet thousands on DWTCS and Bellator if you have access to Pinnacle. And secondly I'm not down huge on DWTNCS, I've made one bet on it all year and I don't bet on Bellator prelims at all, I only bet on the main card and rarely do so. My ROI is 22% this year and 21% lifetime, you can't compete with that even though you try to inflate your record betting props. You are a small bankroll player that bets on props, you are a peasant compared to a kingpin like myself, I bet thousands of dollars and make real money, you dont, thats just a fact.

Look I've given you the expert opinion on Johnson, I back up everything I say with facts. Obviously you've been burned multiple times betting him as a favorite, if you wanna keep doing that then thats your choice, god help you. The guy a proven loser and quitter, it's clearly stupid to bet him as a favorite and there is plenty of proof to back that up. It's only downhill from here for MJ.

Fili on the other hand only seems to be getting better and gotta think he matches up well with MJ especially at FW. MJ had a better shot at beating the slow and plodding Elkins. MJ lost 5 of his last 6, fact.

 

[pytycrys]

@Dianabol

Let's see a betslip, king.

 

[Gugabe]

LOL you got so many things wrong, firstly you can easily bet thousands on DWTCS and Bellator if you have access to Pinnacle. And secondly I'm not down huge on DWTNCS, I've made one bet on it all year and I don't bet on Bellator prelims at all, I only bet on the main card and rarely do so. My ROI is 22% this year and 21% lifetime, you can't compete with that even though you try to inflate your record betting props. You are a small bankroll player that bets on props, you are a peasant compared to a kingpin like myself, I bet thousands of dollars and make real money, you dont, thats just a fact.

Look I've given you the expert opinion on Johnson, I back up everything I say with facts. Obviously you've been burned multiple times betting him as a favorite, if you wanna keep doing that then thats your choice, god help you. The guy a proven loser and quitter, it's clearly stupid to bet him as a favorite and there is plenty of proof to back that up. It's only downhill from here for MJ.

Fili on the other hand only seems to be getting better and gotta think he matches up well with MJ especially at FW. MJ had a better shot at beating the slow and plodding Elkins. MJ lost 5 of his last 6, fact.

Is Fili really getting better? Lobov win is meh, and he barely skimmed out by the skin of his testicles against an increasingly shoddy-looking Bermudez. I know guys who have access to Pinnacle and who are mildly competent and they can't get swings like that through Pinnacle minor-card lines without warping them to shit.

My ROI, completely freely available to all and over nearly 300 picks is 19% on MLs. I'm pretty sure it was about 40% back when I was still at 60 picks! Good beginner effort, though.

 

[Sham5916910]

Anyone got a ruler

 

[Gugabe]

Anyone got a ruler

I'm just sad that this is just going to look like me talking to myself after Dianabol gets banned for claiming to be a banned poster. Not a good look.

And we've got a whole other 19 days of break between cards left after this!

 

[Sham5916910]

Gambling Expert, let's see one slip boy that is four figures then i'll give you the nod.

 

[ill800]

Fili is just as big of a flake as Johnson

Mmagamblingexpert about to be on account number 10 for the year

 

[MT6ix]

Hard to bet Michael Johnson as a favourite, I would only bet him at even money or preferably at plus money.

When we cap, we need to take into account fight iq/willing to fight for your money.

I had money on Michael Johnson against Darrin Elkins, I'm pretty sure I had paid around -150 for his ML. He was lighting up Darrin Elkins first round and then in the 2nd round, went for a naked leg kick which is pretty bad fight iq and got taken down and tapped really fast and didn't bother fighting off that choke.

The worst part was that event took place in St.Louis Missouri, Michael Johnson's hometown where he had friends and family in attendance, and he quit that easily. He should have been super motivated to win and fought tooth and nail to get the W in front of friends and family in his hometown but he didn't. Says a lot about a fighter imo.

 

[ill800]

Hard to bet Michael Johnson as a favourite, I would only bet him at even money or preferably at plus money.

When we cap, we need to take into account fight iq/willing to fight for your money.

I had money on Michael Johnson against Darrin Elkins, I'm pretty sure I had paid around -150 for his ML. He was lighting up Darrin Elkins first round and then in the 2nd round, went for a naked leg kick which is pretty bad fight iq and got taken down and tapped really fast and didn't bother fighting off that choke.

The worst part was that event took place in St.Louis Missouri, Michael Johnson's hometown where he had friends and family in attendance, and he quit that easily. He should have been super motivated to win and fought tooth and nail to get the W in front of friends and family in his hometown but he didn't. Says a lot about a fighter imo.

Don’t forget that Andre Fili seems to have alter egos that could show up on any given night.

So you have a flake and then you have a guy who just doesn’t show up to fight some nights

 

[Gugabe]

Hard to bet Michael Johnson as a favourite, I would only bet him at even money or preferably at plus money.

When we cap, we need to take into account fight iq/willing to fight for your money.

I had money on Michael Johnson against Darrin Elkins, I'm pretty sure I had paid around -150 for his ML. He was lighting up Darrin Elkins first round and then in the 2nd round, went for a naked leg kick which is pretty bad fight iq and got taken down and tapped really fast and didn't bother fighting off that choke.

The worst part was that event took place in St.Louis Missouri, Michael Johnson's hometown where he had friends and family in attendance, and he quit that easily. He should have been super motivated to win and fought tooth and nail to get the W in front of friends and family in his hometown but he didn't. Says a lot about a fighter imo.

True. I just don't think Fili's either as gritty, or as durable as Elkins for that initial Elkins burst. If I get MJ -120 or so, and can potentially cash out or hedge with a Fili +200 price after he gets his shit whooped in the first round, I'm happy with that outcome. I do think the Elkins loss was a bit of an outlier in terms of grappling shittiness, though. That wasn't the same dude who managed to atleast survive getting mauled for multiple rounds.

Don’t forget that Andre Fili seems to have alter egos that could show up on any given night.

So you have a flake and then you have a guy who just doesn’t show up to fight some nights

True. Fili could easily get discouraged in there during MJ's initial burst. Fili's also a frontrunner, he's only won the third round once, against Lobov, in his UFC career and his head's also been historically kind of shitty.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Johnson vs Fili screams pass. Cant trust either dude to get your order right at Jack in the Box let alone fight for your money.

 

[MT6ix]

Don’t forget that Andre Fili seems to have alter egos that could show up on any given night.

So you have a flake and then you have a guy who just doesn’t show up to fight some nights

I like Michael Johnson if he can keep it on the feet, his boxing is crisp and his hands are super fast and Andre Fili is only a blue belt (correct me if I'm wrong) but if the fight hits the ground, I'm sweating bullets as a Johnson bettor. I think Fili will land some takedowns in the fight.

If you have two guys where one guy is a flake and the other doesn't show up occasionally (I think Fili is doing better, just expectations were set up too high for him in the beginning), how can you pay juice on the flake expecting him to win 60% of the time when you should only paying around even money when you take into account all variables.

As I mentioned earlier, if you aren't fighting to win in your hometown and in front of friends and family, hard to trust that guy with your money.

 

[piglord]

So far I like Angela Hill and Markus Perez. Sanchez sucks

sanchez doesn't suck but his cardio does. i think this is actually a favorable matchup for him against another gasser who won't be able to ground him.

 

[Oblivian]

I like Michael Johnson if he can keep it on the feet, his boxing is crisp and his hands are super fast and Andre Fili is only a blue belt (correct me if I'm wrong) but if the fight hits the ground, I'm sweating bullets as a Johnson bettor. I think Fili will land some takedowns in the fight.

If you have two guys where one guy is a flake and the other doesn't show up occasionally (I think Fili is doing better, just expectations were set up too high for him in the beginning), how can you pay juice on the flake expecting him to win 60% of the time when you should only paying around even money when you take into account all variables.

As I mentioned earlier, if you aren't fighting to win in your hometown and in front of friends and family, hard to trust that guy with your money.

Just to play devil's advocate here, you can still make an argument for one guy being a fav if both guys are flakes. If both guys show up and perform, who do you favor?