I'm not gonna lay juice on Hill, but man if she goes to + money I'm going to be on her for SURE. Casey is terrible at using her reach, and almost ALWAYS backs straight the fuck up when her opponent throws combos at her. That's why if you watch her fights, there's a lot of times where she avoids the first punch thrown at her but gets clipped with the 2nd or the 3rd. Hill's striking is WAY more crisp and fluid, and she is gonna make Casey look like she's stuck in mud in the difference in how they move.
Casey will be stronger in the clinch, which is my one reservation about Hill (but it's a big reservation and the reason I don't want to lay juice on her). WMMA fights so often have a lot of fencework and clinching. There's a ton of reasons why, but it's just a fact that it's more common than in men's fights. And while she doesn't necessarily take a lot of damage while in the clinch, Hill does allow herself to be turned fairly easily, and also allows herself at times to be held against the cage. Depending on judges, that could definitely hurt her here.
Agree with
@ill800 that Casey has shown poor fight IQ at times too. But she is gritty and won't be scared to try to make the fight an ugly stallfest, which is her clearest path to victory.
Even if I can get Hill to -110 I'll probably make a small play on her. If she gets to +115 or better I'll add to it. It's just way too easy to see her landing a lot of straight punches as she gets in and out before Casey can get ahold of her.