UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

LOL when is the last time you've seen Gaethje shoot for TD's?

Gaethje is pretty consistent with his approach, fights everyone the same. Relentless pressure and leg kicks.

I'd be very surprised if he tried to take Vick down

He’s said in multiple interviews since the Porier fight that he plans to use his wrestling more as opposed to just brawling to the death. He was a D1 wrestler. Remains to be seen if he actually will, but he’s certainly capable.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Tricky fights
Cory Sandhagen vs Luri Alcantara
Joanne Calderwood vs Kalindra Faria
James Vick vs Justin Gaethje
George Sulivan vs Mickey Gall
Rani Yahya vs Luke Sanders

rest is easier to predict.

 

[Larthus]

I think there's good value on Gaethje here. If he utilizes his wrestling he will be a force in the division. I'll take a $30 risk on him, maybe lump him in with a guaranteed (90% chance of winning) favorite for a good parlay

edit: fuck it I'll just run him with michael johnson and hope for the best

 

[piglord]

I underestimate Vick most of the time, but he's impressed me lately. The footwork and using his reach has improved drastically. I feel he's best using that when he gets respect early, but I honestly think Gaethje just doesn't give a fuck. Even if he's getting caught coming in, I don't think he's one that will back up. It's similar to against Michael Johnson who normally uses footwork and angles well. Gaethje was still able to make it a brawl. Once on the inside with Vick, I think Gaethje will give a lot of troubles.

agree with this. i'm not convinced vick is a competent inside fighter whatsoever.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Vick seems really slow to get moving inside the clinch. Almost a little lost trying to grab a whizzer or thai plum. Justin's dirty boxing with pay huge dividends for him.

 

[mkess101]

I underestimate Vick most of the time, but he's impressed me lately. The footwork and using his reach has improved drastically. I feel he's best using that when he gets respect early, but I honestly think Gaethje just doesn't give a fuck. Even if he's getting caught coming in, I don't think he's one that will back up. It's similar to against Michael Johnson who normally uses footwork and angles well. Gaethje was still able to make it a brawl. Once on the inside with Vick, I think Gaethje will give a lot of troubles.

Yeah I might pass pre fight and see how it looks live. It's 2 guys I almost don't feel the need to watch tape on as I've seen them so much (including Gaethje in WSOF) but still don't feel like I have a good read on how it plays out.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Ellenberger is a whopping 2-8 in his last 10, how does this guy still have a career in the UFC? And it's not like he's in competitive barn burners, he's typically lost by whimpering performances that end in devastating stoppages. Someone on his team needs to take him apart and have a serious talk with him.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Ellenberger is a whopping 2-8 in his last 10, how does this guy still have a career in the UFC? And it's not like he's in competitive barn burners, he's typically lost by whimpering performances that end in devastating stoppages. Someone on his team needs to take him apart and have a serious talk with him.

They use him as a ko hl

 

[edole]

Mickey Gall is going to destroy George Sullivan, not because Gall is some sort of world beater, but because George Sullivan is a total jobber.

This looks like a really fun card on paper.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Mickey Gall is going to destroy George Sullivan, not because Gall is some sort of world beater, but because George Sullivan is a total jobber.

Hey man, words can hurt ya know?






Agreed 100% though.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Mickey Gall is going to destroy George Sullivan, not because Gall is some sort of world beater, but because George Sullivan is a total jobber.

This looks like a really fun card on paper.

To be devils advocate, George didnt look that BAD in his last fight against Niko but Mickey should win this fight. I hope he isnt juiced like 1.3

 

[Dooze]

Gaethje as an underdog against a fighter not renowned for his power, durability or brawling ability is a happy enough bet for me really.

Poirier and Alvarez were bad match ups that have a great ability to absorb punishment and throw back with heat while themselves pressuring.

Gaethje manages to draw everyone into a brawl and abandon their game plan. Vick has got a bit better at avoiding it, but he's not really someone who takes the centre of the cage, he backs up to the cage a lot to try to evade attacks or will try circling about on the outside of the cage.

Generally when Vicks back hits the cage people shoot on him and he'll try to hit a choke. If Gaethje is going to start wrestling I hope it's not in these situations because back to the fence Vicks going to be most dangerous trying to snatch Gaethjes neck. Justin should use those opportunities to do what he does best; trap his man there mixing up big punches with leg kicks and forcing Vick to fight in a phonebooth where he's probably weakest.

Every Gaethje fight turns into a brawl and Vick has a penchant for planting his back on the cage. Unless he's been using his short notice to only drill footwork to avoid that he's going to likely find himself with his back pressed against the cage and getting hurt.

Also, we know Gaethje can keep up that pace for 15+ minutes and if he tires he powers through it and keeps throwing. Vick is a big dude with a big weight cut and fights at a more measured pace. If he can't get Justin out of there in the first 10-15 it likely means he's fighting at a much higher pace than he's used to. Vick cuts from about 185 and has said how difficult it is before, a brutal cut, first fight to potentially go over 15 minutes and likely at a lot faster a pace than he's used to doesn't bode too well.

Gaethje has taken a lot of punishment in his career, let alone his last 3 fights. His chin could maybe be cracked, but despite being finished in his last two outings it's not a case of him getting flash KOed, it's cumulative damage that would get most people out of there.

Sure he gets hurt but he looks like he can still take he damage. My only real worry in this fight is that it is too soon after the Dustin fight. I'd feel more confident if he took a year off but unless his chin is done which I don't think it is, I think he's a bad match up for Vick and Vick isn't the type of fighter that can do what Dustin or Eddie did.

Putting a bet on Justin now and I'll go in more on him should his odds drift further over the next week or two.

Edit - 2U Gaethje @ +130. I don't think he'll drift anymore but if he goes to +150 I'll hit it again.

 

[mkess101]

Gaethje as an underdog against a fighter not renowned for his power, durability or brawling ability is a happy enough bet for me really.

Poirier and Alvarez were bad match ups that have a great ability to absorb punishment and throw back with heat while themselves pressuring.

Gaethje manages to draw everyone into a brawl and abandon their game plan. Vick has got a bit better at avoiding it, but he's not really someone who takes the centre of the cage, he backs up to the cage a lot to try to evade attacks or will try circling about on the outside of the cage.

Generally when Vicks back hits the cage people shoot on him and he'll try to hit a choke. If Gaethje is going to start wrestling I hope it's not in these situations because back to the fence Vicks going to be most dangerous trying to snatch Gaethjes neck. Justin should use those opportunities to do what he does best; trap his man there mixing up big punches with leg kicks and forcing Vick to fight in a phonebooth where he's probably weakest.

Every Gaethje fight turns into a brawl and Vick has a penchant for planting his back on the cage. Unless he's been using his short notice to only drill footwork to avoid that he's going to likely find himself with his back pressed against the cage and getting hurt.

Also, we know Gaethje can keep up that pace for 15+ minutes and if he tires he powers through it and keeps throwing. Vick is a big dude with a big weight cut and fights at a more measured pace. If he can't get Justin out of there in the first 10-15 it likely means he's fighting at a much higher pace than he's used to. Vick cuts from about 185 and has said how difficult it is before, a brutal cut, first fight to potentially go over 15 minutes and likely at a lot faster a pace than he's used to doesn't bode too well.

Gaethje has taken a lot of punishment in his career, let alone his last 3 fights. His chin could maybe be cracked, but despite being finished in his last two outings it's not a case of him getting flash KOed, it's cumulative damage that would get most people out of there.

Sure he gets hurt but he looks like he can still take he damage. My only real worry in this fight is that it is too soon after the Dustin fight. I'd feel more confident if he took a year off but unless his chin is done which I don't think it is, I think he's a bad match up for Vick and Vick isn't the type of fighter that can do what Dustin or Eddie did.

Putting a bet on Justin now and I'll go in more on him should his odds drift further over the next week or two.

Edit - 2U Gaethje @ +130. I don't think he'll drift anymore but if he goes to +150 I'll hit it again.

Excellent B/D. Agree with most of it. One thing I'd add is that to my knowledge Gaethje has never fought a guy with the frame of Vick. Vick isn't any sort of amazing clinch fighter from what we've seen. Nor is he amazingly crisp at the closer range that Gaethje prefers (which you pointed out). BUT...one thing that would worry me in backing Gaethje is Vick's plum and throwing knees as he pulls the head down. Reason being, most guys when they get in that spot (opponents hands grasped around the back of their neck) will fight to disengage, keep their hands low to block upward knees, or possibly slide off to one side to level change. The thing NOT to do (at least as was taught to me when I trained, and I'm assuming is generally the standard) is to try to "punch your way out of it". Because you can't generate enough power from that tight with your head being controlled in the plum to do any damage usually, and if you are throwing punches or trying to in that spot your chin is fully exposed to knees. Best example I can remember of this was Rampage in Pride trying to punch Wand in that spot and getting brutalized to an unconscious state by Wand's knees.

The reason I specifically bring this up is that Gaethje's answer for...pretty much every scenario has been to just brawl his way out of it. Now you have a ridiculously tall guy for the weight class in Vick who tends to grab the plum sometimes when clinching and doesn't need to raise his knees nor pull the head down all that far to connect. The potential is there for JG to eat something nasty. And iirc it was a huge knee from Eddie that essentially ended that fight.

Not saying this alone should dissuade anyone from a bet on JG. This is just one of many things to consider. But it would worry me a little as a backer of Gaethje.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Lines are dropping.

Took Casey +125 for 2u. I think the line is gonna flip soon. Overkill might tool her a bit on the feet though. I've been creeping her instagram and shes been getting better with her MT especially her kicks. Definitely not interested in juiced wmma.

Casey with a big size advantage but damn she just struggled to use it against an atomweight lol.

 

[ill800]

Lines are dropping.

Took Casey +125 for 2u. I think the line is gonna flip soon. Overkill might tool her a bit on the feet though. I've been creeping her instagram and shes been getting better with her MT especially her kicks. Definitely not interested in juiced wmma.

Casey with a big size advantage but damn she just struggled to use it against an atomweight lol.

The plus is that she won’t have to worry about take downs with Hill.

Casey has low fight iq as well. Comfortable staying on her back, pulled guard a few times if I remember correctly.

She will have a big reach advantage here.

Hill has the speed advantage and she’s the better striker who throws more.

Will Casey be able to utilize her range advantage is my question

She has the strength advantage and I can see her having success in the clinch


I hit Casey at her opening line of +135 and +125

And remember Hill has a chin on her. Andrade was able to slow her down but couldn’t really hurt her even though she landed some big shots

 

[Naught2Sixty]

The plus is that she won’t have to worry about take downs with Hill.

Casey has low fight iq as well. Comfortable staying on her back, pulled guard a few times if I remember correctly.

She will have a big reach advantage here.

Hill has the speed advantage and she’s the better striker who throws more.

Will Casey be able to utilize her range advantage is my question

She has the strength advantage and I can see her having success in the clinch


I hit Casey at her opening line of +135 and +125

And remember Hill has a chin on her. Andrade was able to slow her down but couldn’t really hurt her even though she landed some big shots

I pretty much see it the same way. I don't think Casey uses her range all that well on the feet so shes going to need to make this fight super physical.

Then again the recent history of Casey and say...Zak Cummins makes me question taking a fighter based on their size and ability to use it.

 

[mkess101]

I'm not gonna lay juice on Hill, but man if she goes to + money I'm going to be on her for SURE. Casey is terrible at using her reach, and almost ALWAYS backs straight the fuck up when her opponent throws combos at her. That's why if you watch her fights, there's a lot of times where she avoids the first punch thrown at her but gets clipped with the 2nd or the 3rd. Hill's striking is WAY more crisp and fluid, and she is gonna make Casey look like she's stuck in mud in the difference in how they move.

Casey will be stronger in the clinch, which is my one reservation about Hill (but it's a big reservation and the reason I don't want to lay juice on her). WMMA fights so often have a lot of fencework and clinching. There's a ton of reasons why, but it's just a fact that it's more common than in men's fights. And while she doesn't necessarily take a lot of damage while in the clinch, Hill does allow herself to be turned fairly easily, and also allows herself at times to be held against the cage. Depending on judges, that could definitely hurt her here.

Agree with @ill800 that Casey has shown poor fight IQ at times too. But she is gritty and won't be scared to try to make the fight an ugly stallfest, which is her clearest path to victory.

Even if I can get Hill to -110 I'll probably make a small play on her. If she gets to +115 or better I'll add to it. It's just way too easy to see her landing a lot of straight punches as she gets in and out before Casey can get ahold of her.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I'm not gonna lay juice on Hill, but man if she goes to + money I'm going to be on her for SURE. Casey is terrible at using her reach, and almost ALWAYS backs straight the fuck up when her opponent throws combos at her. That's why if you watch her fights, there's a lot of times where she avoids the first punch thrown at her but gets clipped with the 2nd or the 3rd. Hill's striking is WAY more crisp and fluid, and she is gonna make Casey look like she's stuck in mud in the difference in how they move.

Casey will be stronger in the clinch, which is my one reservation about Hill (but it's a big reservation and the reason I don't want to lay juice on her). WMMA fights so often have a lot of fencework and clinching. There's a ton of reasons why, but it's just a fact that it's more common than in men's fights. And while she doesn't necessarily take a lot of damage while in the clinch, Hill does allow herself to be turned fairly easily, and also allows herself at times to be held against the cage. Depending on judges, that could definitely hurt her here.

Agree with @ill800 that Casey has shown poor fight IQ at times too. But she is gritty and won't be scared to try to make the fight an ugly stallfest, which is her clearest path to victory.

Even if I can get Hill to -110 I'll probably make a small play on her. If she gets to +115 or better I'll add to it. It's just way too easy to see her landing a lot of straight punches as she gets in and out before Casey can get ahold of her.

I have bet on Casey two fights in a row and her fight IQ is too painfully bad for me to touch her vs Hill even at +odds.

 

[Gugabe]

Hopefully Johnson gets to near-evens. Massive gap in striking ability, even if Johnson can always randomly collapse

 

[Dianabol]

Hopefully Johnson gets to near-evens. Massive gap in striking ability, even if Johnson can always randomly collapse

When does betting Michael Johnson ever pay off? the guy is so unreliable as a favorite, sure he's a good striker with great speed. But he's also a massive front runner and quitter and not a guy you can trust at all. He's also taken massive damage and seem to be on the tail end of his career. The move to FW with nothing but desperation. His record speaks for itself.

Johnson is 3-7 as a favorite in the UFC LMAO, so unreliable