UFN 130 - Thompson vs Till - Liverpool

[mkess101]

Does anyone have any thoughts on Till/WB Fight Goes to Decision at +120? It seems to be the better way to play the fight if you want to be on WB

You aren't worried that Till is often hyper-aggressive? And as it's a "home game" for him he might really try to make an early statement?

I need to study a bit more but that would be my concern. I agree WB is willing to play the point fighting game if his opponent doesn't come at him. So if Till is more reserved for sure it could go all 5. But if Till is aggressive there's a good chance he either catches WB or (more likely imo) gets caught with a counter and finished.

 

[iGnP]

You aren't worried that Till is often hyper-aggressive? And as it's a "home game" for him he might really try to make an early statement?

I need to study a bit more but that would be my concern. I agree WB is willing to play the point fighting game if his opponent doesn't come at him. So if Till is more reserved for sure it could go all 5. But if Till is aggressive there's a good chance he either catches WB or (more likely imo) gets caught with a counter and finished.

I think if Till were to have success pressuring WB, he's going to win the fight anyway

edit: just to clarify, my argument is taking the FGTD versus WB straight. Not saying I necessarily think WB is the right side, but there's a sig difference between +120 and -170

 

[mkess101]

I think if Till were to have success pressuring WB, he's going to win the fight anyway

Maybe. I think Wonderboy's power is a little underrated. I think there's some chance that Till is aggressive to the point of being borderline reckless and WB makes him pay.

 

[iGnP]

Maybe. I think Wonderboy's power is a little underrated. I think there's some chance that Till is aggressive to the point of being borderline reckless and WB makes him pay.

I edited the post you quoted but just to put things in perspective

-170 = 63% implied probability
+120 = 45.5% implied probability

That's a pretty significant difference. Then factor in that we've never seen Till hurt or wobbled (correct me if something is slipping my mind) and that WB is, like you said, sorta embracing the point fighting in his karate. Till's forward pressure surely does influence this a lot but I wonder if it's enough to warrant the diff in implied probability

 

[mkess101]

I edited the post you quoted but just to put things in perspective

-170 = 63% implied probability
+120 = 45.5% implied probability

That's a pretty significant difference. Then factor in that we've never seen Till hurt or wobbled (correct me if something is slipping my mind) and that WB is, like you said, sorta embracing the point fighting in his karate. Till's forward pressure surely does influence this a lot but I wonder if it's enough to warrant the diff in implied probability

It definitely might not. I need to look at it more but you could for sure be on the right track.

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

I think Stewart will win but if he gets in a bad position it could be a surprising victory for Eric.

The biggest mismatch imo is Breese vs Kelly. I don't see anyway Dan can win this fight besides a freak injury.

 

[Sham5916910]

I think Stewart will win but if he gets in a bad position it could be a surprising victory for Eric.

The biggest mismatch imo is Breese vs Kelly. I don't see anyway Dan can win this fight besides a freak injury.

Spice is going to take Stewart down and sub his arse. Hes terrible.

And you really want to trust a guy whos been out what 2 years tore his acl and pulled out minutes before he faced the almighty war angel cos he had a panic attack...

 

[Gugabe]

I think Stewart will win but if he gets in a bad position it could be a surprising victory for Eric.

The biggest mismatch imo is Breese vs Kelly. I don't see anyway Dan can win this fight besides a freak injury.

Dan Kelly has never lost a match, he's just run out of time... or taken a quick nap.

 

[null]

I think Stewart will win but if he gets in a bad position it could be a surprising victory for Eric.

The biggest mismatch imo is Breese vs Kelly. I don't see anyway Dan can win this fight besides a freak injury.

I hate that I'm responding to another stupid novelty account, but I think Breese is a great matchup for Kelly.

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

Spice is going to take Stewart down and sub his arse. Hes terrible.

And you really want to trust a guy whos been out what 2 years tore his acl and pulled out minutes before he faced the almighty war angel cos he had a panic attack...

I won't be laying down serious money if he's around 1.25 - 1.35 in decimal odds (which I think he will be priced around) but yeah I predict an early tko for Tom, the athleticism gap will be too much imo and Tom can stay long and as soon as he touches his chin I believe Dan will go down.

For the injury and mental game I'll be listening to his interviews before the fight to gage where he's at but I think he knocks out and retires Dan but it's just my opinion and not having done the tape for this event yet.

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

I hate that I'm responding to another stupid novelty account, but I think Breese is a great matchup for Kelly.

Stupid novelty account?

Don't judge a fart by its smell, rather... it's substance. Good day sir.

 

[null]

Stupid novelty account?

Don't judge a fart by its smell, rather... it's substance. Good day sir.

Keita Nakamura gave Breese a competitive fight despite losing a UD. Kelly is a little taller, bigger than K-taro and a better striker. I can see him making this a tough bout for Breese.

 

[Sham5916910]

Kelly is a damn dog. If Breese can't get him out of there early this is gonna become a dog fight.

 

[rille31]

How shoot is rashad evans

Better wrestling, maybe cardio

+240 seems like a no brainer

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

Keita Nakamura gave Breese a competitive fight despite losing a UD. Kelly is a little taller, bigger than K-taro and a better striker. I can see him making this a tough bout for Breese.

He's also much slower and not as athletic as Nakamura. And not as durable which I think will be his downfall in this fight.

If Kelly can work his clinch game effectively I can see him rallying but I can't pick him against any young decent fighter. He did tko Shoeface so who knows maybe I'm on the wrong side on this one but this fight jumped off the page as a mismatch to me.

 

[zeckdo]

when to pull trigger on wonderboy ml??? -150 or below?

 

[Gugabe]

when to pull trigger on wonderboy ml??? -150 or below?

I'm gonna leave it till just about fight time. UK/hype money's gonna hit pretty hard and I'm expecting this to close at near-evens.

 

[GrantSorenson]

I'm gonna leave it till just about fight time. UK/hype money's gonna hit pretty hard and I'm expecting this to close at near-evens.

The UK is weird in a way, a lot of football rivalries. People from Manchester are unlikely to be supporting Till for example. Generally scousers are disliked because they have a big mouth stereotype, quite like Till is portraying himself. Tony Bellew is another example. I'm not sure the line will shift that much. I think WB will probably stay steady at 1.7ish.

I could see Till having a bad chin

He is a big 170, probably cuts a ton of weight. Has bad cardio and seems bad cardio often goes hand in hand with bad chin. Especially for big cutters.

Against Dalby he was ready to go in the third.

Can anyone actually see Till winning? I think he really has a very slim chance. The only thing I can see possibly is him catching Wonderboy in an exchange when WB is throwing punches. WB hangs there and throws now and then.

Could anyone picking him actually lay out how they technically see him winning

 

[Gugabe]

The UK is weird in a way, a lot of football rivalries. People from Manchester are unlikely to be supporting Till for example. Generally scousers are disliked because they have a big mouth stereotype, quite like Till is portraying himself. Tony Bellew is another example. I'm not sure the line will shift that much. I think WB will probably stay steady at 1.7ish.






Against Dalby he was ready to go in the third.

Can anyone actually see Till winning? I think he really has a very slim chance. The only thing I can see possibly is him catching Wonderboy in an exchange when WB is throwing punches. WB hangs there and throws now and then.

Could anyone picking him actually lay out how they technically see him winning

Based on what I've actually seen of him, I'm guessing an early KO from a big punch or a decision where he's coming foorward for the first 3 rounds and maybe edges a fairly-controversial 48-47.

I also propose we just fade everybody from SBG affiliates. It works.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

it's not like WB is unhittable. His hands are so low and wide sometimes he struggles to block punches. Late in fights people have had success against him with their boxing technique. Mas round 3, Rory round 3, Twood round 4 (first fight). Twood would have finished WB if he didn't jump on that choke. I think Till has the power to hurt WB and might even have to timing to hit WB coming in. It'll be hard as WB is wayyyyy more defense oriented in southpaw but once he changes to orthodox his tempo drastically changes and he's on the attack. That's Tills window. I still have no idea how to play this fight. I hit the opener and got a play on WB at -145 to win 1u and I might just leave it at that.