UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

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2bet said:
I would not feel confident putting any money on Holtzman simply because he is training at MMA Lab.
The MMA Lab guys love to mention prefight that they have been training/preparing with Benson, but look at their records lately, losses over losses.

Caceres lost
Barberena lost
Benson himself lost his last two
Klose lost
Escudero lost
Jones-Lynbarger lost her last three fights
Case lost his last two

and so on, and so on. I was just listing the more prominent ones, you can check for yourself with the Fight Finder.

Corrales got two wins in a row in Bellator, Jordan Johnson and O'Malley are unbeaten, but that's about it.
Currently I cannot have any confidence in that camp.

Is Horcher great? Nah. But it's not like Holtzman has been impressive either, he went 2-2 in his last 4 fights, all decisions.

I would definitly bet Horcher if he was a big dog, but there is no value in him at 2.10, so I will stay away from that fight as far as I can.
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The MMA Lab went 2-2 last week, Murphy and O'Malley both picked up wins, you are just picking out the losers. Gamblou is tight with the Lab and he says Holtzman is looking sharp lately. And it's not like Gamblou is biased, we bet against Cacares a couple weeks ago.

Horcher trains under Jeff Curran, what great fighters has Jeff Curran ever trained? he trains Felice Herrig, big deal

Using the Lab's recent lack of success as an excuse not to bet against a broken Darrel Horcher is not great reasoning.

Horcher's lack of activity is going to cost him, that low volume counter punching style is going to be overwhelmed by the violence that Holtzman brings. Holtzman the superior athlete and fighter 100%

You can hate on the Lab all you want but all you have is an opinion. I'm getting the facts and the inside information from Gamblou, I know what goes on in that camp.
 
daggen said:
Change bettingsite?
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5dimes is the only site that has props and openers. There’s a lot more to this game than just picking winners. I catch prices and work the board with numbers as well.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
5dimes is the only site that has props and openers. There’s a lot more to this game than just picking winners. I catch prices and work the board with numbers as well.
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Yeah, unfortunately when you get start to get the ball rolling with props and openers, they limit you to $20 a bet, basically forcing you to take another strategy.
 
2bet said:
I would not feel confident putting any money on Holtzman simply because he is training at MMA Lab.
The MMA Lab guys love to mention prefight that they have been training/preparing with Benson, but look at their records lately, losses over losses.

Caceres lost
Barberena lost
Benson himself lost his last two
Klose lost
Escudero lost
Jones-Lynbarger lost her last three fights
Case lost his last two

and so on, and so on. I was just listing the more prominent ones, you can check for yourself with the Fight Finder.

Corrales got two wins in a row in Bellator, Jordan Johnson and O'Malley are unbeaten, but that's about it.
Currently I cannot have any confidence in that camp.

Is Horcher great? Nah. But it's not like Holtzman has been impressive either, he went 2-2 in his last 4 fights, all decisions.

I would definitly bet Horcher if he was a big dog, but there is no value in him at 2.10, so I will stay away from that fight as far as I can.
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Most of those losses are either from flakey fighters or to much better opponents than Horcher is, or both. I'd take it with a grain of salt. You can't just go by a camp unless you can point out specific major issues, and some of the fighters put on fantastic performances recently.

For Horcher's camp, as far as I can tell he trains either with his local team with no notable names, or with Jeff Curran. I'd take Benson over that
 
EzFlyer said:
Worth a stab for sure. Took a lil +1250 benitez sub. A few tempting sub props tomorrow. Took some alcantara +450, too.. missed his earlier price.

Also took more on Perez nsc +350ish, that line is nuts. Also taking a unit on Perez +3.5 +160. He's a tricky freakin Brazilian. Really athletic, too..

I'm definitely impressed by anders. Don't get me wrong. Powerful dude. Great athlete. But maluko has a BJJ edge and is a wild dude who can absolutely compete here and I expect him to get a round at least (unless Anders lands a BOMB in rd 1 I guess.)

Took more on moraes -135, reasons stated earlier.
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I kinda like the goofy looking Brazilian by submission +1000 going with your theme.

Anders has that left hand and not much else as far as variety goes. If he doesn’t KO him in the first then I don’t think he KO’s him at all.

I’m not high on Anders like everyone else is. His entry into the TD is amateur IMO. But he’s athletic I’m sure he’ll improve but -340 he hasn’t proven anything in that quick KO of bumbling Natal.

Perez looks like he has a solid front head choke too so he can catch Anders coming in for that +1000 to cash. He also goes for the rubber guard pretty often if Anders ends up on top.
 
turbozed said:
Yeah, unfortunately when you get start to get the ball rolling with props and openers, they limit you to $20 a bet, basically forcing you to take another strategy.
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It’s sad but I’ve actually been taking advantage of Las Vegas bookies lately.

They’ve recently allowed me to parlay o/u’s with the ML.

Recently I parlayed Alex Garcia with the o1.5 and got a +430 price. Originally thought that Garcia would win by decision and his 5dimes prop paid only +420.

The fight ended just after the o1.5 mark. I’m lucky to be a 45 min flight from Vegas.
 
ill800 said:
Them going with Neto is pretty juicy too. Giles is a legit prospect and EASILY outgrappled a bjj specialist in his debut.
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I'm on Giles, but to be fair that guy was a purple belt. Not really a specialist
 
Arkham's Notorious Geyser said:
I see that, I can't find Giles on Bovada, and I want to Parlay him up with Moraes, also, should I make winnings on 5dimes, what's the method they use to get the money back to you, PayPal, Direct deposit?
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Bovada accepts bitcoin which is the best way to deposit/withdraw money as its free.
 
Fights to end in SUB
O2.5 +105 .4u
O3.5 +319 .2u
O4.5 +929 .1u
O5.5 +2850 .05u
O6.5 +11600 .02u

Could likely see subs from Ortega, Knight, Alex Perez, and Ramos. Then unlikely but possible subs from Morales/Sterling, Markus Perez, Davis, Souk, Alcantara, and Neto.
 
EzFlyer said:
pulling the trigger on moraes -140. these guys and their teams train together.. first time mark henry and serra-longo have ever gone against each other like i said earlier (i think, anyway?) -- think this becomes a technical pointfighting striking battle as a result - for sure gotta favor moraes in that.
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You're a fan of Moraes iirc. What are your thoughts on his TDD and get ups? I think Sterling is going to get frustrated on the feet and start looking to grapple. Dodson was able to take him down a few times off caught kicks, but Moraes immediately attacked leg locks to get back up. I thought the guillotine he locked up during that scramble at the end of the fight was pretty slick too.

I like Moraes quite a bit here if I can trust him to not get held down or give up his back.

If anyone else has an opinion on this, I'd be interested in hearing it as well.
 
t6p said:
You're a fan of Moraes iirc. What are your thoughts on his TDD and get ups? I think Sterling is going to get frustrated on the feet and start looking to grapple. Dodson was able to take him down a few times off caught kicks, but Moraes immediately attacked leg locks to get back up. I thought the guillotine he locked up during that scramble at the end of the fight was pretty slick too.

I like Moraes quite a bit here if I can trust him to not get held down or give up his back.

If anyone else has an opinion on this, I'd be interested in hearing it as well.
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*hits blunt*

Or what if Moraes takes Aljo down? Didn’t Al spend half a round underneath Barao?

Sadistics said:
Fights to end in SUB
O2.5 +105 .4u
O3.5 +319 .2u
O4.5 +929 .1u
O5.5 +2850 .05u
O6.5 +11600 .02u

Could likely see subs from Ortega, Knight, Alex Perez, and Ramos. Then unlikely but possible subs from Morales/Sterling, Markus Perez, Davis, Souk, Alcantara, and Neto.
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Why don’t you just parlay those subs and get a better price.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Or what if Moraes takes Aljo down? Didn’t Al spend half a round underneath Barao?
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Yes he did, Barao jumped into his guard after he escaped a leg lock attempt and kept him there for the rest of the round.

I'm not ruling out Moraes taking Sterling down, but based on what I've seen from him in the UFC so far I would expect he'll want to keep it standing for the most part. You're right though, it doesn't seem like Sterling offers much off his back.
 
man alejandro perez looked worrying, been thinking about pulling the trigger all week now not so sure.
 
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