UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan, Sat, October 1

Stat_Collector said:
Do you guys think any of these props are possible.

Dern by decision?
Dern by ko?
Randy brown sub?
Grishin by ko?
Latifi by dec?
Costa decision?

I think these will be the highest props from the fighters i favor.
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Dern by decision I don't like, Yan is better on the feet so Dern needs to get her down, if she gets her down then I think she likely finishes her as Yan didn't look great on her back against Carla from what I remember. I don't really think Dern is going to go for GNP too much on the ground either. I highly favour either Dern sub or Yan decision over any other outcomes.

Randy Brown by sub seems unlikely to me, Trinaldo is difficult to finish. We're talking what, 3 times in 38 fights if we count TUF? I know he's getting older, but it doesn't seem to impact him too much.

Grishin/Lins sure, if Lins loses he usually gets finished.

Latifi by decision is pretty likely I think, it'd be smart for him to play it safe with Oleinik on the ground and it's not like he's a big power puncher.

I don't trust Costa really.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Dern by decision I don't like, Yan is better on the feet so Dern needs to get her down, if she gets her down then I think she likely finishes her as Yan didn't look great on her back against Carla from what I remember. I don't really think Dern is going to go for GNP too much on the ground either. I highly favour either Dern sub or Yan decision over any other outcomes.

Randy Brown by sub seems unlikely to me, Trinaldo is difficult to finish. We're talking what, 3 times in 38 fights if we count TUF? I know he's getting older, but it doesn't seem to impact him too much.

Grishin/Lins sure, if Lins loses he usually gets finished.

Latifi by decision is pretty likely I think, it'd be smart for him to play it safe with Oleinik on the ground and it's not like he's a big power puncher.

I don't trust Costa really.
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Oleinik is glacial on the feet though, and Latifi pretty much only throws bombs on the feet. Not to mention that he might forego the grappling unless he really needs to.

Think it might look like Akhmedov vs Pesta, known decision machine that actually is very willing to lob bombs on the feet versus a very defensively open striker that's slower to boot.

Don't forget Latifi killed off Sean O'Connell in like a minute back in the day. Sure, it's at HW but again, this is the one opponent he can get away with blitzing early.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Dern by decision I don't like, Yan is better on the feet so Dern needs to get her down, if she gets her down then I think she likely finishes her as Yan didn't look great on her back against Carla from what I remember. I don't really think Dern is going to go for GNP too much on the ground either. I highly favour either Dern sub or Yan decision over any other outcomes.

Randy Brown by sub seems unlikely to me, Trinaldo is difficult to finish. We're talking what, 3 times in 38 fights if we count TUF? I know he's getting older, but it doesn't seem to impact him too much.

Grishin/Lins sure, if Lins loses he usually gets finished.

Latifi by decision is pretty likely I think, it'd be smart for him to play it safe with Oleinik on the ground and it's not like he's a big power puncher.

I don't trust Costa really.
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yeah i think Latifi likely stays at full guard and points here. His short stubby arms i dont think he can blitz Ole.

Grishen ko seems obvious, he knocked down Jacobi. that has gd value. i think Knight lasted cause he wrestles a lot.

i agree with the other ones, i do lean strong on Costa. Canetti is not just 40 but lost a close fight with Mana, i think costa is faster and stronger. He battered Yanez face up i think he could do that to Canetti. but probably an early 1-2 ko. if the dec prop is big, i can see me playing a dec prop if its 500+
 
Stat_Collector said:
yeah i think Latifi likely stays at full guard and points here. His short stubby arms i dont think he can blitz Ole.

Grishen ko seems obvious, he knocked down Jacobi. that has gd value. i think Knight lasted cause he wrestles a lot.

i agree with the other ones, i do lean strong on Costa. Canetti is not just 40 but lost a close fight with Mana, i think costa is faster and stronger. He battered Yanez face up i think he could do that to Canetti. but probably an early 1-2 ko. if the dec prop is big, i can see me playing a dec prop if its 500+
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I think my issue with Costa is that he's such a front runner and he puts all his offence out there early and then usually gasses badly. Mana isn't brilliant but he does hit really fucking hard and Guido ate his shots
 
I have a hard time seeing yan going 5 rounds with Dern.

played the under 2.5 +145
Dern rds 3-5 and rds 3-5 sub roughly at +2000 avg
Dern sub +100
Dern itd -135

ideally Dern finishes in rd 3 before the halfway mark. Probably not going to work out that well for me.

could get crushed by a yan decision or finish over the 2.5 mark. I like my odds though.

Dern could also win a dec if she can consistently get her down and not finish, I just have a hard time seeing that. Could live bet her accordingly

yan was put into a crucifix by Esparza and was helpless on the bottom. Don’t think she’s going to improve enough to be able to deal with dern
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
I have a hard time seeing yan going 5 rounds with Dern.

played the under 2.5 +145
Dern rds 3-5 and rds 3-5 sub roughly at +2000 avg
Dern sub +100
Dern itd -135

ideally Dern finishes in rd 3 before the halfway mark. Probably not going to work out that well for me.

could get crushed by a yan decision or finish over the 2.5 mark. I like my odds though.

Dern could also win a dec if she can consistently get her down and not finish, I just have a hard time seeing that. Could live bet her accordingly

yan was put into a crucifix by Esparza and was helpless on the bottom. Don’t think she’s going to improve enough to be able to deal with dern
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If Yan ends up on the bottom she's fucked. Tbh Mackenzie could probably pull guard if she can't get her takedowns going.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
If Yan ends up on the bottom she's fucked. Tbh Mackenzie could probably pull guard if she can't get her takedowns going.
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Mackenzie Dern is only credited with 2 takedowns in her entire UFC career.

I keep reading things like 'if Yan gets put on her back she's in trouble', but realistically, she's in trouble in far more situations than just a straight forward Dern takedown. Dern can manufacture grappling situations without scoring a takedown, or even threatening a takedown.

What concerns me about Yan is that while she's got decent offensive wrestling, she's pretty bad defensively, and liable to be drawn into grappling exchanges. She is reckless in terms of distance management on the feet, and has very little striking power. I can see Dern being able to grab hold of her in so many ways it's kind of frightening.

What I like about Yan is that she'll land more on Dern than Dern is able to land the other way, and she's quite fast. She can make Dern look silly on the feet, as Dern is pretty sloppy, and if she actually focuses on distance management (unlikely) then she could win this handily.

We're going to need to see a much improved Xiaonan if she's got a chance here, because to this point she's looked really easy to ground.
 
This card is so bad, like ancient fighters, low volume unreliable fighters, gassers, wmma main event, almost nothing I like as a pre bet

Crazy that Dern is like number 4/5 in her weight class in the world and she can't strike, like can't even throw a straight punch. Lunging left hand to a big right, or crashing into her opponent while flailing and hoping to grab onto a body lock
 
2020Tracked said:
This card is so bad, like ancient fighters, low volume unreliable fighters, gassers, wmma main event, almost nothing I like as a pre bet

Crazy that Dern is like number 4/5 in her weight class in the world and she can't strike, like can't even throw a straight punch. Lunging left hand to a big right, or crashing into her opponent while flailing and hoping to grab onto a body lock
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Pretty harsh. Dern has improved

 
jnes said:
I mean anyone can look good on pads
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Exactly. When's the last time a female MMA fighter's stand up impressed you as much as her pad work impressed you?
 
jnes said:
I mean anyone can look good on pads
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I’m not trying to say she’s good but she’s obviously improved over the last few years. I think it’s the footwork that messes her up. Clearly she understands how to throw a punch

she uses her looping shots to crash distance and get in for a takedown. She doesn’t need to be a good striker. In wmma she doesn’t Need to strike at all. If she learned how to wrestle she would be unstoppable
 
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Am I crazy for thinking Wilycat has a good chance against Castaneda? Seems like two guys who both like to be on the front foot, but Castaneda was getting pushed back by Wineland and I think only really got that KO because Eddie was old and had shit reflexes.
 
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