UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan, Sat, October 1

[mkess101]

Latifi is thick as fuck and has no neck. vanderaa would have beaten oleinik too but showed terrible fight IQ.

I think oleinik's run ends here.

I agree. But I've been burned betting against him before haha.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Latifi is thick as fuck and has no neck. vanderaa would have beaten oleinik too but showed terrible fight IQ.

I think oleinik's run ends here.

I have no idea how Oli would even get the fight to the ground. Latifi would very likely be able to stay safe on top if he wants to get TDs, too.

 

[mkess101]

I have no idea how Oli would even get the fight to the ground. Latifi would very likely be able to stay safe on top if he wants to get TDs, too.

Okeinik has hit that effing Ezekiel choke for a finish off being taken down LOL.

I'm gonna bet Latifi...and expect that old Russian to screw me again haha.

 

[Broe.]

Penne should never be such a big dog vs Ricci. Ricci is way undersized and she was already struggling vs arguebly the worst strawweight fighter in Viana (she lost to Cifers lol). Penne on the other hand outgrappled Lupita Godinez. Imo Penne is a decent grappler and she has a big size advantage vs Ricci. This is the typical low level wmma fight where you take the dog.

 

[King-Ryan]

Penne should never be such a big dog vs Ricci. Ricci is way undersized and she was already struggling vs arguebly the worst strawweight fighter in Viana (she lost to Cifers lol). Penne on the other hand outgrappled Lupita Godinez. Imo Penne is a decent grappler and she has a big size advantage vs Ricci. This is the typical low level wmma fight where you take the dog.

My thoughts exactly. I posted about it earlier in the thread. Going to probably play Penna.

 

[magpie878]

I keep betting (not big) on Oli by sub and will again!

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Should Randy Costa and his one round of cardio be that big a favourite over anyone?

 

[Danis_champ]

Should Randy Costa and his one round of cardio be that big a favourite over anyone?

Guido has shitty gas tank too and he is 42 years old so yes.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Guido has shitty gas tank too and he is 42 years old so yes.

I don't think his gas tank is that bad, I'm more worried about him being taken out of there early. Costa tends to go ham in the first round and then die afterwards.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I bet Stoliarenko.

Chandler started improving in Invicta when she went up to 145, but she's back to 135 in this one. Style wise she's a bit of a sloppy brawler on the feet, which is the kind of fight Stoliarenko is fine in. She can wrestle a little, but I don't know if she wants to be on the ground with Stoliarenko.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I also think the price for Barcelos is pretty reasonable at the moment. I don't see how Jones beats him.

 

[Joonc]

Barcelos sub could be interesting. His offensive grappling is actually pretty good, he beat Nurmagomedov with it.

 

[Joonc]

I also think the price for Barcelos is pretty reasonable at the moment. I don't see how Jones beats him.

Jones has a 3 inch reach advantage and has knocked out both Bautista and Valiev, not out of the realm of possibility for him to do the same to 35 yr old Barcelos. I think line is about right.

 

[2020Tracked]

I bet Stoliarenko.

Chandler started improving in Invicta when she went up to 145, but she's back to 135 in this one. Style wise she's a bit of a sloppy brawler on the feet, which is the kind of fight Stoliarenko is fine in. She can wrestle a little, but I don't know if she wants to be on the ground with Stoliarenko.

It's a catch weight at 140, if that makes any difference to your feelings towards the fight

 

[2020Tracked]

Took a unit on Ronson and Lins. Don't have particularly strong lean towards either guy, I just think they are 50/50 fights so there is some small value in the dogs.

Not really much to love on this card, Browne should win, Costa should win, Sadiq should win.

Davis and Castenada are both my leans buy I don't think there is any real value there.

Barcelos vs Jones is interesting. Skill for skill Barcelos is better pretty much everywhere, but if you watch his tape without the Taha fight he doesn't look as impressive. Very good, well rounded but not next level the way he looked in that fight.

Jones isn't anything amazing but his strength of schedule is really tough, getting Khakrominov and Basharat one after the other is rough.

 

[fedortips]

Got Latifi @ 1.71 from marathonbet

Value I think, over 1.5 is good too, let's see

 

[fedortips]

Stoliarenko 1.88

Jotko 1.97

Took these also. Flat stake

Stoliarenko is better and powerful I think. Jotko Dec is probable.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Took a unit on Ronson and Lins. Don't have particularly strong lean towards either guy, I just think they are 50/50 fights so there is some small value in the dogs.

Not really much to love on this card, Browne should win, Costa should win, Sadiq should win.

Davis and Castenada are both my leans buy I don't think there is any real value there.

Barcelos vs Jones is interesting. Skill for skill Barcelos is better pretty much everywhere, but if you watch his tape without the Taha fight he doesn't look as impressive. Very good, well rounded but not next level the way he looked in that fight.

Jones isn't anything amazing but his strength of schedule is really tough, getting Khakrominov and Basharat one after the other is rough.

I think Viacheslav has a 50/50 shot of upsetting. Mike got Knocked down by Sodiq , i think Viacheslav has some of the same traits as Sodiq to upset here. Davis has negative traits as a striker, SAPm 6.0+ is very high(gets hit often) and he was tagged and in a dog fight with Mason Jones who now was exposed to be average by Klein(or at least just a mid tier level mma.) that win hasn't aged well. I don;t think Davis wrestling is as relentless as Diakiese, i think he'll at best get two takedowns but very little ground control. Low exposure but i think a ko prop for Viacheslav can be very high since the public perception of davis being durable and eating lots of shots without getting koed, but i think if a guy gets hit often as him, he can be koed, and Viacheslav might actually be the best puncher that Davis has ever faced. anyway that is my logic.

 

[JC615]

Penne should never be such a big dog vs Ricci. Ricci is way undersized and she was already struggling vs arguebly the worst strawweight fighter in Viana (she lost to Cifers lol). Penne on the other hand outgrappled Lupita Godinez. Imo Penne is a decent grappler and she has a big size advantage vs Ricci. This is the typical low level wmma fight where you take the dog.

- Ricci wins.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Do you guys think any of these props are possible.

Dern by decision?
Dern by ko?
Randy brown sub?
Grishin by ko?
Latifi by dec?
Costa decision?

I think these will be the highest props from the fighters i favor.