UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II - BETS

1.3u Lee ITD -130
1u Lee + Hermansson +116

0.6u Oliveira rd2 +425
0.6u Oliveira rd3 +825
0.1u Miller rd2 +975
0.1u Miller rd3 +1600

0.6u Ottow +255
0.4u Ottow sub +1235

1u Griffin +155

0.2u Adams/De La Rocha starts rd2 +111
0.2u Adams by dec +795

Good luck everyone!! Still considering Green and Font
 
4.6 units Dan Ige to win 3
.5 unit Griffin wins ITD to win 3
 
UFC on Fox 31 Risk $5,643.13

Al Iaquinta (+260) vs Kevin Lee $200.00 for $520.00
Al Iaquinta wins by TKO/KO/DQ (+575) $75.00 for $431.25
Kevin Lee wins by submission (+150) $75.00 for $112.50
Al Iaquinta/Kevin Lee fight ends in round 3 (+365) $35.00 for $127.75
Al Iaquinta wins in round 4 (+2450) $15.00 for $367.50
Kevin Lee wins in round 4 (+950) $15.00 for $142.50
Al Iaquinta/Kevin Lee fight ends in round 4 (+525) $15.00 for $78.75
Al Iaquinta wins in round 5 (+3365) $15.00 for $504.75
Kevin Lee wins in round 5 (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00
Al Iaquinta/Kevin Lee fight ends in round 5 (+1015) $15.00 for $152.25
Al Iaquinta/Kevin Lee Over 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00
Al Iaquinta/Kevin Lee Over 2½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00

Edson Barboza (+105) vs Dan Hooker $200.00 for $210.00
Edson Barboza (+110) vs Dan Hooker $200.00 for $220.00
Edson Barboza wins by 3 round decision (+255) $75.00 for $191.25
Edson Barboza/Dan Hooker Over 2½ (-117) $117.00 for $100.00

Rob Font (-155) vs Sergio Pettis $310.00 for $200.00
Rob Font (-160) vs Sergio Pettis $320.00 for $200.00
Rob Font (-163) vs Sergio Pettis $326.00 for $200.00
Rob Font (-165) vs Sergio Pettis $330.00 for $200.00
Rob Font wins by TKO/KO (+266) $50.00 for $133.00

Jim Miller (+240) vs Charles Oliveira $200.00 for $480.00
Jim Miller wins inside distance (+426) $30.00 for $127.80
Charles Oliveira wins in round 1 (+220) $75.00 for $165.00
Charles Oliveira wins by submission in round 1 (+274) ~$31.50 for ~$86.31
Jim Miller wins in round 2 (+1025) $30.00 for $307.50
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 (+3900) ~$28.35 for ~$1,105.65
Jim Miller wins in round 3 (+1700) $30.00 for $510.00
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 3 (+4900) ~$28.35 for ~$1,389.15
Jim Miller/Charles Oliveira Over 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Dwight Grant (-280) vs Zak Ottow $280.00 for $100.00
Dwight Grant -3½ points (-180) $135.00 for $75.00
Dwight Grant wins by KO/KO/DQ (-120) $90.00 for $75.00
Dwight Grant/Zak Ottow Under 1½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00

Bobby Green (+225) vs Drakkar Klose $200.00 for $450.00
Bobby Green scorecards = no action (+185) $125.00 for $231.25
Bobby Green scorecards = no action (+205) $125.00 for $256.25
Drakkar Klose wins by 3 round decision (-130) $65.00 for $50.00

Joaquim Silva/Jared Gordon Under 2½ (+155) $100.00 for $155.00

Gerald Meerschaert (+140) vs Jack Hermansson $100.00 for $140.00
Gerald Meerschaert/Jack Hermansson won't go 3 round distance (-195) $146.25 for $75.00

Zak Cummings/Trevor Smith Over 2½ (-189) $188.68 for $100.00

Jordan Griffin (+160) vs Dan Ige $200.00 for $320.00
Jordan Griffin/Dan Ige Under 2½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00

Mike Rodriguez (+135) vs Adam Milstead $200.00 for $270.00
Mike Rodriguez wins by TKO/KO (+280) $75.00 for $210.00
Adam Milstead wins by 3 round decision (+275) $40.00 for $110.00

Juan Adams/Chris De La Rocha Under 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
 
Lee itd
Barboza
Pettis
Oliveira by sub
Grant by ko/tko
Bobby Green
Gordon
Cummings/Hermansson
Jordan Griffin
 
Baby Pettis ML +150 1u
D. Hooker ML -115 2.875u
Ragin' Al ML +250 1u

Oddly specific unit bet on Hooker but it's a bit of style change to win 2u. Good luck gents.
-1.375u. Bet small lose small. Pettis and Hooker were the most square bets I've ever had.
 
Down 500 total after I chased my hooker loss on raging Al
 
Hard luck Larthus, thanks for supporting my kiwi bro.

Best night of betting so far for me after a couple static weeks.

It was helped by the TAB mistake which gave me 7:1 on font vPettis going to decision. Anyhow I will take it and am up 35.5units on the night with one small play on Gracie still to come in
 
MMA Math: Unit size doubled + Very similar to many on here = Still fully expect to get slaughtered...

Iaquinta ML - 1u for 2.5u
O2.5 rounds - 1u for 0.95u
O4 rounds - 0.5u for 0.6u
Distance - 0.5u for 1u

Barboza ML - 1u for 1.25u

Font ML - 2u for 1.15u

A. Lee + Oliveira - 2u for 0.73u
Miller - 1.5u for 4u
Miller Rd 2 - 0.25u for 2.4u
Miller Rd 3 - 0.2u for 3.2u

Green ML - 0.75u for 1.6u

Cummings ML - 2u for 0.7u

Silva ML - 1.5u for 2u
Silva ITD - 0.25u for 0.8u
Silva Rd 1 - 0.2u for 1.1u
Silva Rd 2 - 0.18u for 1.3u
U1.5 rounds - 0.5u for 0.7u

Rodriguez ML - 0.5u for 0.7u

Griffin ML - 0.5u for 0.75u

Adams Rd 1 - 0.5u for 0.4u
Adams Rd 2 - 0.2u for 0.9u

ITD Parlay (Adams, Ottow, Miller fights) - 0.5u for 0.55u

In spite of my posts about Charles - 'his fight to lose,' etc - I completely switched sides. All the value is on Jim and I hate betting on quitters.

Alright, good luck everyone. For whatever reasons, I have so little confidence in this to be honest.

Well, nice to be wrong. Should've stuck to my guns about Bronx, had it pegged exactly, but I've flipped in the past and it's saved me so I give that back as sacrifice to the MMA gods. Again, guys, thank you for all the info, another great 9.5u night for me. Hope you all came out up.
 
I lost 1u on Iaquinta/Miller/J.Silva parlay @ +2474.00 (25.74)

Wanted to end the year with a bang. Had relatively good success betting past 2 months so I thought to myself why not?

I was so sure I was going to win this parlay. I underestimated the power of the new found patience Do Bronx fights with. I knew about how reckless Jim is every time he fights, I rewatched a lot of his stuff for this event. Here I counted on that actually. It's all offence disregarding diffence for him... But maybe too much in this instance. He opened himself badly with that legkick. Should've just try to wrestle from the get go, this is where he shines. I was tempted my the big odds, too.
Didn't wrote my bet, was afraid that will jinx it. Too much negative energy in the thread was an influence too.
Actually thought the weakest link in my parlay is Silva :D When he won I was counting the money already. LOL

Want to congratulate everybody that made a healthy profit from this event :) Lets fuck them bookies on the 232!!!
 
upload_2018-12-16_10-46-13.png

rough night.. id be 100 quid up from a fiver if they went through.
 
Lee/Iaquinta DNGTD -155 .5u

Barboza +130 .5u
Barboza DEC +275 .15u

Font -167 6.7u
Font ITD +224 .3u
Font KO +235 .15u

Miller/Oliveira DNGTD -215 .7u

Ottow/Grant O1.5 -129 .5u
Ottow SUB +1315 .15u

Green/Klose GTD -195 .65u

Silva +175 1u
Silva NSC -136 2.3u
Silva ITD +335 .15u

Hermansson -154 2.5u
Hermansson DEC +300 .2u

Griffin +164 .5u

Rodriguez +175 .7u
Rodriguez NSC -106 .5u

Cummings ITD +215 .15u
Cummings SUB +350 .15u


Cummings NSC (-345) + Font NSC (-390) -161 1u

+8.5u after throwing a bunch away on bad lbs and hedges. Broke 60k with this event, may be hitting 100k sooner than expected

Live bets:
Screenshot_20181216-121147_Chrome.jpg
 
I lost 1u on Iaquinta/Miller/J.Silva parlay @ +2474.00 (25.74)

Wanted to end the year with a bang. Had relatively good success betting past 2 months so I thought to myself why not?

I was so sure I was going to win this parlay. I underestimated the power of the new found patience Do Bronx fights with. I knew about how reckless Jim is every time he fights, I rewatched a lot of his stuff for this event. Here I counted on that actually. It's all offence disregarding diffence for him... But maybe too much in this instance. He opened himself badly with that legkick. Should've just try to wrestle from the get go, this is where he shines. I was tempted my the big odds, too.
Didn't wrote my bet, was afraid that will jinx it. Too much negative energy in the thread was an influence too.
Actually thought the weakest link in my parlay is Silva :D When he won I was counting the money already. LOL

Want to congratulate everybody that made a healthy profit from this event :) Lets fuck them bookies on the 232!!!

Man, I remember you touting the iaquinta/silva underdog double a week or more ago. Why add miller with all the unknowns and disadvantages there?? Sure, sprinkle a few bucks on miller as a big underdog and nobody could fault you. We have to trust our leans to some extent, nobody is going to be 100% accurate all the time. Most people dont find even one good underdog per event. You managed to find two but may have gotten greedy with miller. Happens to the best of us..I won big on the ufc but threw away most of my profit in bellator.

Nevertheless good instincts with those two, what are your leans for 232?
 
Endgamesbro, I was too greedy - you are right! :( Even the Silva win was a luck (worst thing I expected is for him to go to some kind of split decision but getting the nod because of aggression and harder punches, rules don't reward passive top control too much, but he was clearly losing until that 2nd round he fucked up Gordon's leg), so adding 3rd leg to this parlay was stupid.

Man, I was way off on that Miller fight. Miller is all or nothing type of fighter. I had sworn to myself to never bet on guys like that and to use extra caution when betting against them. This time I bet on fight where both guys are unpredictable. What the hell? :D
 
0.5u Iaquinta +300 +1.5u
0.5u Iaquinta NSC +320 0u
0.05u Iaquinta RD4 +2450 -0.05u
0.05u Iaquinta RD5 +3200 -0.05u

2u Barboza +110 +2.2u
0.25u Barboza KO +411 +1.03u

1u Font +105 +1.05u

0.5u Miller +280 -0.5u

0.5u Green +275 -0.5u
0.15u Green ITD +700 -0.15u

0.5u Meerschaert +210 -0.5u

NET: +4.03

Feels good to get back on track. Would have been great if Green got the decision and Iaquinta pushed a little harder for the finish in the 5th, but no complaints.
 
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